中国地热研究的进展与展望(1995～2014)

地热是主要地球物理场之一,地热能是地球的本土能源。李四光在20世纪60年代开创了我国地热科学。到90年代,学科体系基本建立。在过去20年里,我国地热研究得到了进一步深化和拓展。本文从大地热流、岩石圈热结构、地热系统、油气盆地地热、矿山地热、天然气水合物以及气候变化等方面回顾地热研究代表性的创新进展,并对深层地热、海洋地热、环境地热等研究方向作了展望。本文认为,过去20年我国地热研究成果丰硕,国际影响力得到提高,未来发展势头强劲。在经历了由浅入深,从今到古的成长之后,地热研究还将不断拓展领域,为我国地球科学,特别是能源与环境安全做出更大贡献。     

成藏期砂岩孔隙度对油气分布的控制作用——以东营凹陷牛庄洼陷沙三中亚段岩性油藏为例

在具有相同储集砂体和相似断层输导情况下,牛庄洼陷沙三中亚段砂岩体油藏长期存在以下难以解释的现象：1）现今砂岩孔隙度分布与油气分布不一致,高孔隙砂岩不含油而低孔隙砂岩含油;2）相同物性砂岩有的含油而有的不含油,含油砂体现今物性接近,但含油级别却存在很大差异。本文从古孔隙度恢复方面分析了牛庄洼陷西部地区沙三中砂岩储层在成藏期的储集条件,并探讨了成藏期储层临界孔隙度。研究发现：1）虽然现今储层物性下限很低,部分砂岩已经致密化,但成藏期的古孔隙度分布在18%～25%范围内,远大于成藏期临界孔隙度13.9%。但由于埋藏过程的差异导致砂岩储层后期减孔幅度不同,因而现今储层物性不能反映成藏期储层物性,成藏期孔隙度高并不能代表现今孔隙度高;2）成藏期高孔隙度带与现今油气分布范围高度一致,表明在相似断层输导条件下,由于储层物性级差优势形成油气优势运移通道,导致高孔隙度带砂体含油,因此,沙三中亚段岩性油藏富集在成藏期高孔隙带中,成藏期砂岩古孔隙度是油气成藏的重要控制因素,而现今砂岩储层高孔隙带在成藏期并不一定高。牛庄洼陷西部地区沙三中亚段储层中具有高古孔隙度的砂岩仍有较大勘探潜力。     

A novel set pair analysis method based on variable weights for liquefaction evaluation

To ensure the safety of structures, high-speed railway and highway founded on liquefiable soils, liquefaction evaluation is a primary task. Herein, a dynamic set pair analysis method based on variable weights is introduced to assess liquefaction. A concept of connection degree of set pair consisting of the evaluation sample and the classification standard was described to interpret the uncertainty of liquefaction and relationship. Moreover, based on reward and penalty mechanism, state variable vectors were presented to assign composite weights of evaluation indicators in order to take into account impacts of indicator variation. And the integrated connection degree to each grade was calculated to evaluate liquefaction of the evaluated cases. Results from practical example and comparison with field investigation and extension method indicated that this proposed model used to evaluate liquefaction is feasible and effective. In addition, it can quantitatively describe liquefaction hierarchy of evaluated samples.     

A comparison of forest fire indices for predicting fire risk in contrasting climates in China

The relationships between fire danger indices and fire risk have been extensively studied in many regions of the world. This work uses partial effect analysis in semiparametric logistic regression models to assess the nonlinear relationships among location, day, altitude, fire danger indices, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and fire ignition from 1996 to 2008 in four different climatic regions in China. The four regions are North China (NR), Northeast China (NE), Southeast China (SE), and Southwest China (SW). The three main results are as follows: First, different fire danger indices are selected as significant variables dependent on the region. The inter-regional difference could be partially explained by difference in local weather and vegetation conditions. Second, spatial location exerts highly significant effects in all four regions. NDVI values are selected as explained variable for NR, NE, and SE on fire ignitions. On a daily scale, altitude influences fire ignition for NR, SE, and SW. Third, the robustness of the probability models used in NE, SE, and SW is better than that in NR on a daily scale. The semiparametric logistic regression model used in this study is useful for assessing the ability of fire danger indices to estimate probabilities of fire ignition on a daily scale. This study encourages further research on assessing the predictive ability of fire danger indices developed at other temporal and spatial scales in China.     

Mineralogy and major-element geochemistry of the lower Permian Greta Seam,Sydney Basin,Australia

The mineralogy of the high-volatile bituminous coals and associated strata from the Greta seam, Sydney Basin, Australia, has been evaluated in this study. Although the seam is not immediately overlain by marine strata, percolation of marine water into the original peat bed is indicated by the petrological, mineralogical and geochemical characteristics, which resemble those of coals with marine roof strata. The upper and lower sections of the seam have contrasting mineralogy. Pyrite typically comprises 40 to 56 wt% of the mineral assemblage in the marine-influenced upper part of the seam section. The lower part contains much less pyrite (typically <5 wt%, organic-free basis), and also relatively abundant dawsonite (up to 14 wt%, organic-free basis). The minerals within most coal plies are largely of authigenic origin. These include pyrite, siderite, clay minerals (mainly kaolinite and Na-rich mixed-layer illite/smectite), and quartz, most of which have a relatively early, syngenetic origin. Minor Ti-bearing minerals, anatase or rutile, and phosphate minerals, fluorapatite and goyazite, were probably also formed during early diagenesis. Other minerals have features that indicate late-stage precipitation. These include abundant cleat- and fracture-filling dawsonite, which may be the result of reactions between earlier-precipitated kaolinite and Na₂CO₃- or NaHCO₃-bearing fluids. Minor albite may also be epigenetic, possibly precipitated from the same Ca–Al bearing fluids that formed the dawsonite. The most abundant detrital minerals in the Greta coals are quartz, poorly ordered kaolinite, illite and mixed-layer illite/smectite (I/S). These occur mainly in the floor, roof and other epiclastic horizons of the seam, reflecting periods of greater clastic influx into those parts of the original peat-forming environment. Detrital minerals are rare in the coals away from the epiclastic horizons, probably owing to almost complete sediment bypassing in the depositional system. Alternatively, any detrital minerals that were originally present may have been leached from the peat bed by diagenetic or post-diagenetic processes.     

对流层大气温度"蝴蝶形"震前异常

利用美国国家和海洋大气管理局(NOAA)的大气温度数据, 分析陆地地震和海洋地震震前震中上空的大气温度变化, 研究其作为地震短临前兆的可能性.地震样本包括2014年2月12日于田M_s7.3地震、2008年5月12日汶川M_s8.0地震、2011年3月11日日本M_s9.0地震、2014年4月1日智利M_s8.1海洋地震、2013年3月27日台湾南投县M_s6.1地震和2014年5月30日云南盈江M_s6.1地震.结果表明: (1)震前, 震中位置300~1 000 hPa大气温度有较为一致的变化趋势; (2)200 hPa与400 hPa处(根据不同地点可选择其他, 诸如350 hPa、300 hPa等高度数据)温度折线图在震前趋近或者相交, 出现类似蝴蝶翅膀的"蝴蝶形"特殊曲线形状; (3)200 hPa与400 hPa温度差等值线图在(震前数月、数周或数天不等)震中附近区域的数值减小, 温度差等值线图的塌陷最低点对应震中位置.以上规律有望应用于地震短临预测的时间与震中的确定.      

黔西地区煤层埋深与地应力对其渗透性控制机制

基于黔西六盘水煤田和织纳煤田16口井36层次的试井资料, 采用地质统计分析等方法, 探讨了黔西地区煤储层渗透性的展布规律与地应力特征, 论证了煤层埋深与地应力对其渗透性的控制机制.研究表明, 研究区煤储层以特低渗-低渗透率储层(＜0.1×10-9m2)为主, 中渗透率储层(0.1×10-9~1.0×10-9m2)也占有相当大比例; 应力场类型在浅部表现为大地动力场型, 一定深度可能转化为准静水压力状态.煤储层渗透率及其埋深的负幂指数关系较为离散, 但在不同深度渗透率转折点与地应力场类型转变一致; 单井煤储层试井渗透率差异较大, 随地应力增大和埋深增加而降低, 平面展布受地应力强度控制由SW-NE具"低-高-低"发育规律.埋深对渗透率的控制实质是地应力的控制, 区域构造位置及其所处高应力场作用下的煤体形变与破碎致使孔裂隙压缩或闭合是该区渗透性差异的主要控制机制.      

Market risk in carbon market: an empirical analysis of the EUA and sCER

The paper uses a capital asset pricing model to analyze the market risk in the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) and clean development mechanisms (CDM) and Zipf analysis technology to analyze the carbon price volatility in different expectations of returns in the two markets. The results show that the systematic risk of the EU ETS market is around 0.07 %, but the CDM market is clearly divided into two stages; the systematic risk of the futures contracts in the first stage (DEC09–DEC12) is less than the EU ETS market, but the systematic risk of the futures contracts that enter the market is greater than the EU ETS market and has a higher market sensitivity, although on the unsystematic risk. The CDM market is always greater than the EU ETS market. Abnormal returns in the two carbon markets are both lower than 0.02 %, but CDM is higher. The probability of price down is greater than that of price up. The carbon price is affected by market mechanisms and external factors (economic crisis and environmental policies) in the low expectations of returns. However, in the high expectations of returns, compared with the CDM market, the carbon price change in the EU ETS market is less stable and has higher risks.

     

Determination of trace and rare-earth elements in Chinese soil and clay reference materials by ICP-MS

Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry(ICP-MS) has become a powerful tool for providing reliable analytical results in many laboratories around the word. In this study, the mixture of HF and HNO3 acids in high-temperature and high-pressure closed-vessel digestion technique were used to decompose some Chinese reference materials, and thirty seven elements were determined by ICP-MS. Most of the results for Chinese soil reference materials were found to be in reasonable agreement with the reference values, except Cs, Ta, Li, Ge, Zn, Nd, Tb and Ta whose values need to be revised. Their precisions were typically lower than 5% RSD. However, the Precisions of Chinese clay reference materials, especially for GBW03102 and GBW03102a, were significantly different with reference values, probably reflecting the existence of a coarser-grained fraction(70 μm) in samples, and the formation of fluorides in Al-rich samples during sample decomposition by using the mixture of HF and HNO3 acids. Moreover, thirty-seven trace elements covering the mass range from Li to U in four Chinese clay reference materials were firstly provided with good precision and accuracy in this study.