Cascading ocean basins: numerical simulations of the circulation and interbasin exchange in the Azov-Black-Marmara-Mediterranean Seas system

In this paper, we use the unstructured grid model SCHISM to simulate the thermohydrodynamics in a chain of baroclinic, interconnected basins. The model shows a good skill in simulating the horizontal circulation and vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, and currents. The magnitude and phases of the seasonal changes of circulation are consistent with earlier observations. Among the mesoscale and subbasin-scale circulation features that are realistically simulated are the anticyclonic coastal eddies, the Sebastopol and Batumi eddies, the Marmara Sea outflow around the southern coast of the Limnos Island, and the pathway of the cold water originating from the shelf. The superiority of the simulations compared to earlier numerical studies is demonstrated with the example of model capabilities to resolve the strait dynamics, gravity currents originating from the straits, high-salinity bottom layer on the shallow shelf, as well as the multiple intrusions from the Bosporus Strait down to 700 m depth. The warm temperature intrusions from the strait produce the warm water mass in the intermediate layers of the Black Sea. One novel result is that the seasonal intensification of circulation affects the interbasin exchange, thus allowing us to formulate the concept of circulation-controlled interbasin exchange. To the best of our knowledge, the present numerical simulations, for the first time, suggest that the sea level in the interior part of the Black Sea can be lower than the sea level in the Marmara Sea and even in some parts of the Aegean Sea. The comparison with observations shows that the timings and magnitude of exchange flows are also realistically simulated, along with the blocking events. The short-term variability of the strait transports is largely controlled by the anomalies of wind. The simulations demonstrate the crucial role of the narrow and shallow strait of Bosporus in separating the two pairs of basins: Aegean-Marmara Seas from one side and Azov-Black Seas from the other side. The straits of Kerch and Dardanelles provide sufficient interbasin connectivity that prevents large phase lags of the sea levels in the neighboring basins. The two-layer flows in the three straits considered here show different dependencies upon the net transport, and the spatial variability of this dependence is also quite pronounced. We show that the blocking of the surface flow can occur at different net transports, thus casting doubt on a previous approach of using simple relationships to prescribe (steady) outflow and inflow. Specific attention is paid to the role of synoptic atmospheric forcing for the basin-wide circulation and redistribution of mass in the Black Sea. An important controlling process is the propagation of coastal waves. One major conclusion from this research is that modeling the individual basins separately could result in large inaccuracies because of the critical importance of the cascading character of these interconnected basins.     

Snowdrift effect on snow deposition: Insights from a comparison of a snow pit profile and meteorological observations in east Antarctica

A high-frequency and precise ultrasonic sounder was used to monitor precipitated/deposited and drift snow events over a 3-year period(17 January 2005 to 4 January 2008) at the Eagle automatic weather station site,inland Antarctica.Ion species and oxygen isotope ratios were also generated from a snow pit below the sensor.These accumulation and snowdrift events were used to examine the synchronism with seasonal variations of δ~(18)O and ion species,providing an opportunity to assess the snowdrift effect in typical Antarctic inland conditions.There were up to 1-year differences for this 3-year-long snow pit between the traditional dating method and ultrasonic records.This difference implies that in areas with low accumulation or high wind,the snowdrift effect can induce abnormal disturbances on snow deposition.The snowdrift effect should be seriously taken into account for high-resolution dating of ice cores and estimation of surface mass balance,especially when the morphology of most Antarctic inland areas is similar to that of the Eagle site.     

Paleogene marine deposition records of rifting and breakup of the South China Sea: An overview

A compilation of available marine deposition data from offshore S-SE China reveals evidence of rifting and breakup of the South China Sea (SCS) during the Paleogene. Marine deposition started earlier in the Paleocene in the East China Sea (ECS)-Taiwan region before expanding southwestward into the SCS region in the middle Eocene. Our data indicate the existence of an elongated Paleogene China Sea in these areas stretching along the northeasterly structural belts, probably as part of the marginal western paleo-Pacific. The southwestward shift of marine influence in the middle Eocene was responding to a period of intensive rifting and subsidence in the SCS region, while the sea in the ECS-Taiwan region started to shrink and shoal after the late Eocene, likely associated with local breakup and initial spreading in the Taiwan-Taixinan Basin area. The accumulation of hemipelagic sediments at ODP 1148 and IODP U1435 from near the continent-ocean boundary and at many other shelf-slope sites was in response to a large-scale breakup 34 to 33 Ma ago, subsequently leading to the birth of the SCS in the Oligocene.     

Quantitative analysis of the impact of droughts and floods on internal wars in China over the last 500 years

Although many large-N quantitative studies have evidenced the adverse effects of climatic extremes on social stability in China during the historical period, most of them rely on temperature and precipitation as major explanatory variables, while the influence of floods and droughts on social crises is rarely measured. Furthermore, a comparison of the climate-society nexus among different geographic regions and at different temporal scales is missing in those studies. To address this knowledge gap,this study examines quantitatively the influence of floods and droughts on internal wars in three agro-ecological(rice, wheat,and pastoral) regions in China in AD1470–1911. Poisson regression and wavelet transform coherence analyses are applied to allow for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the climate-war nexus. Results show that floods and droughts are significant in driving internal wars in historical China, but are characterized by strong regional variation. In the rice region, floods trigger internal wars at the inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. In the wheat region, both floods and droughts cause internal wars at the inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. In the pastoral region, internal wars are associated with floods only at the multi-decadal time scale. In addition, the multi-decadal coherence between hydro-climatic extremes and internal wars in all three of the agro-ecological regions is only significant in periods in which population density is increasing or the upper limit of regional carrying capacity is being reached. The above results imply that the climate-war nexus is mediated by regional geographic factors such as physical environmental setting and population pressure. Hence, we encourage researchers who study the historical human-climate relationship to boil down data according to geographic regions in the course of statistical analysis and to examine each region individually in follow-up studies.     

Multi-models for SPI drought forecasting in the north of Haihe River Basin,China

Drought is one of the most devastating climate disasters. Hence, drought forecasting plays an important role in mitigating some of the adverse effects of drought. Data-driven models are widely used for drought forecasting such as ARIMA model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, wavelet neural network (WANN) model, support vector regression model, grey model and so on. Three data-driven models (ARIMA model; ANN model; WANN model) are used in this study for drought forecasting based on standard precipitation index of two time scales (SPI; SPI-6 and SPI-12). The optimal data-driven model and time scale of SPI are then selected for effective drought forecasting in the North of Haihe River Basin. The effectiveness of the three data-models is compared by Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test, Kendall rank correlation, and the correlation coefficients (R²). The forecast results shows that the WANN model is more suitable and effective for forecasting SPI-6 and SPI-12 values in the north of Haihe River Basin.     

Distribution,potential sources and ecological risks of two persistent organic pollutants in the intertidal sediment at the Shuangtaizi Estuary,Bohai Sea of China

Spatial distribution, source apportionment, and potential ecological risks of sixteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and seven endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) in the intertidal sediment at the Shuangtaizi Estuary, Bohai Sea of China were analyzed. Results showed that the total PAH concentrations ranged from 28.79 ng g^? 1 dw to 281.97 ng g^? 1 dw (mean: 115.92 ng g^? 1 dw) and the total EDC concentrations from 0.52 ng g^? 1 dw to 126.73 ng g^? 1 dw (mean: 37.49 ng g^? 1 dw). The distribution pattern for the PAHs was generally different from that of the EDCs possibly due to their distinct sources and n-octanol-/water partition coefficients (K_OW). Qualitative and quantitative analytical results showed that PAH sources were mainly from a mixture of pyrogenic and petrogenic contributions. The higher levels at the southeast of Geligang indicated that the EDC pollutants may have mainly originated from the plastic industry and other chemical plants located along the Liao River. Ecological risk assessment revealed that PAHs exhibited low ecotoxicological effects, whereas EDCs, especially 4-tert-octylphenol and bisphenol A, had high ecological hazard to the estuarine biota.     

Storm surge risk assessment method for a coastal county in China: case study of Jinshan District,Shanghai

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Storm surges, which may cause considerable casualties and economic losses, are among the most serious natural disasters that threaten the...     

Variability in the vertical hyporheic water exchange affected by hydraulic conductivity and river morphology at a natural confluent meander bend

River confluences and their associated tributaries are key morphodynamic nodes that play important roles in controlling hydraulic geometry and hyporheic water exchange in fluvial networks. However, the existing knowledge regarding hyporheic water exchange associated with river confluence morphology is relatively scarce. On January 14 and 15, 2016, the general hydraulic and morphological characteristics of the confluent meander bend (CMB) between the Juehe River and the Haohe River in the southern region of Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, were investigated. The patterns and magnitudes of vertical hyporheic water exchange (VHWE) were estimated based on a one‐dimensional heat steady‐state model, whereas the sediment vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v) was calculated via in situ permeameter tests. The results demonstrated that 6 hydrodynamic zones and their extensions were observed at the CMB during the test period. These zones were likely controlled by the obtuse junction angle and low momentum flux ratio, influencing the sediment grain size distribution of the CMB. The VHWE patterns at the test site during the test period mostly showed upwelling flow dominated by regional groundwater discharging into the river. The occurrence of longitudinal downwelling and upwelling patterns along the meander bend at the CMB was likely subjected to the comprehensive influences of the local sinuosity of the meander bend and regional groundwater discharge and finally formed regional and local flow paths. Additionally, in dominated upwelling areas, the change in VHWE magnitudes was nearly consistent with that in K_v values, and higher values of both variables generally occurred in erosional zones near the thalweg paths of the CMB, which were mostly made up of sand and gravel. This was potentially caused by the erosional and depositional processes subjected to confluence morphology. Furthermore, lower K_v values observed in downwelling areas at the CMB were attributed to sediment clogging caused by local downwelling flow. The confluence morphology and sediment K_v are thus likely the driving factors that cause local variations in the VHWE of fluvial systems.     

Using stable isotopes to understand seasonal and interannual dynamics in moisture sources and atmospheric circulation in precipitation

Stable isotopes in precipitation are useful tracers to strengthen understanding of climate change and hydrological processes. In this study, the moisture sources of 190 precipitation events in Beijing were analysed using the Hybrid Single‐particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, based on which we studied the relation between variations in precipitation δ¹⁸O and dynamics in moisture sources and atmospheric circulation in seasonal and interannual timescales. Categorization of 7 groups of moisture sources was performed, among which oceanic moisture sources presented lower δ¹⁸O in precipitation than continental moisture sources. The results show that seasonal variations of precipitation δ¹⁸O were caused by changes of moisture sources. In summer, moisture from proximal oceans dominated vapour transport to Beijing due to increasing monsoon strength and resulted in a relatively small variation of precipitation δ¹⁸O. At the interannual timescale, the variations of δ¹⁸O in summer precipitation were related to dynamics in oceanic moistures, showing depleted values when the contribution of oceanic moistures, especially the proportion of long‐distance oceanic moisture, was high. Further analysis indicated that changes of oceanic moisture sources were controlled by the strength of summer monsoons. These findings address the complexity of moisture sources in midlatitude monsoon areas and suggest that isotopic signals in precipitation have the potential to deduce changes in moisture sources and atmospheric circulation and can therefore serve for palaeoclimate reconstruction.     

Effects of fluid displacement pattern on complex electrical impedance in Berea sandstone over frequency range 104–106 Hz

To better understand the effect of fluid distribution on the electric response of rocks saturated with oil and brine, we conducted experimental studies on the complex electrical impedance in a Berea sandstone, together with in situ acquisitions of oil distribution images employing a high‐resolution medical X‐ray computed tomography. We performed two tests of brine displacement by oil under high (10 MPa) and low (5 MPa) pressures, which were accompanied by fingering and stable displacement patterns, respectively. The measured complex impedance data were fitted to the Cole model to obtain the resistance, capacitance, peak frequency of the imaginary impedance, and the exponent α of the rock–fluid system. With increasing oil saturation, the resistance showed an increasing trend, whereas the other three parameters decreased. The fingering displacement exhibited lower resistance and capacitance than the stable displacement. The analysis of the resistance changes using a simple parallel connection model indicates that there are more components of residual brine in parallel connections in the fingering pattern than in the stable displacement pattern at the same saturation. We also interpreted the normalised changes in the capacitance (or apparent dielectric constant) with respect to the oil saturation via an analysis of the shape factor of fluid distribution based on the Maxwell–Wagner–Brugermann–Hanai model. The changes in the shape factor suggest that the pinch‐off of the brine in parallel connection by the oil is a dominant mechanism reducing the capacitance. In the stable displacement, most of the connections in the brine phase are immediately pinched off by oil displacement front at a local oil saturation of 65%. Conversely, in the fingering displacement, there is a transition from the bulk or layered brine to the pinched‐off at a local oil saturation below 60%. The analyses indicate that the difference in the fluid distribution under different fluid conditions is responsible for the non‐Archie behaviour.