Variability of air mass occurrence in southern Poland (1951–2010)

The paper discusses the frequency, persistence and succession sequence of six types of air mass during the period 1951–2010. The study, which relied on a calendar of air masses in southern Poland published by T. Nied?wied?, concludes that there is no simple relationship between the persistence and the frequency of specific air masses in the region. The study found that there was a great variety in the persistence of specific types of air mass and that persistence depended more on the direction of air mass advection than on their frequency of occurrence. The study also failed to identify any strict overall rule of succession, as any air mass could follow after any other, but certain finer-grained patterns emerged. In winter and summer, arctic air (A) never followed directly after tropical air (T) or vice versa. Also, the most frequent succession sequence identified was from Polar maritime fresh air (mPf) to Polar maritime old and it accounted for the vast majority of successions from mPf into any other air mass (63 % annually and 76 % in summer).     

Failure criteria of anisotropically damaged materials based on the critical plane concept

The damage state of a cracked material is assumed to be specified by crack density distribution on physical planes. The critical plane approach is used with account for damaged and intact area fractions on the plane. The maximum of failure function is specified for all potential failure planes and the critical plane orientation is determined. The resulting failure condition is applied to study strength evolution for triaxially compressed specimens with varying orientation of principal stress and damage tensor axes. Both Coulomb and non‐linear failure conditions of Mohr type are applied to specify the representative critical plane. A general stress state is considered and the failure condition is specified for different relative orientations of orthotropy and principal stress axes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of boundary conditions,specimen geometry and material heterogeneity on model calibration from triaxial tests

The recent capability of measuring full‐field deformations using advanced imaging techniques provides the opportunity to improve the predictive ability of computational soil mechanics. This paper investigates the effects of imperfect initial specimen geometry, platen‐soil and apparatus compliance, and material heterogeneity on the constitutive model calibration process from triaxial tests with nonlubricated platens. The technique of 3D‐Digital Image Correlation (3D‐DIC) was used to measure, from digital images, full‐field displacements over sand specimen surfaces throughout triaxial compression tests, as well as actual specimen initial shape, and deformations associated with platen and apparatus compliance and bedding settlement. The difference between predicted and observed 3D specimen surface deformations served to quantify an objective function in the optimization algorithm. Four different three‐dimensional finite element models (FEMs), each allowing varying degrees of material variability in the solution of the inverse problem, were used to study the effect of material heterogeneity. Results of the parametric study revealed that properly representing the actual initial specimen geometry significantly improves the optimization efficiency, and that accounting for boundary compliance can be critical for the accurate recovery of the full‐field experimental displacements. Allowing for nonsymmetric material variability had the most significant impact on predicted behavior. A relatively high coefficient of variation in model parameters was found among a statistical ensemble of tests, underscoring the importance of conducting multiple tests for proper material characterization. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty quantification in the calibration of a dynamic viscoplastic model of slow slope movements

Most landslides occurring in Italy consist of shallow-translational movements, which involve fine, essentially clayey material. They are usually characterized by low velocities, typically of few centimeters per year. The main triggering factor is hydrologic, since movements are usually strictly connected to groundwater level fluctuations. This slow and periodical trend can be interpreted by a viscous soil response, and in order to catch the actual kinematics of the soil mass behavior, a dynamic analysis should be adopted. This paper discusses the case of the Alverà mudslide, located in the Northern Alps (Italy), for which a very detailed and almost 9-year-long monitoring database, including displacements and groundwater levels records, is available. A well-defined dynamic viscoplastic model, capable of returning a displacement prediction and a mobilized shear strength angle estimate from a groundwater level input, was considered. A first deterministic calibration proved the ability of the model to reproduce the mudslide overall displacements trend if a suitable reduction of the mobilized angle _0\varphi ^{\prime }_{0} is allowed. Then, an uncertainty quantification analysis was performed by measuring the model parameters variability, and all parameters could be represented using a probability density function and a correlation structure. As a consequence, it was possible to define a degree of uncertainty for model predictions, so that an assessment of the model reliability was obtained. The final outcome is believed to represent an important advancement in relation to hazard assessment and for future landslide risk management.     

Sunspot Time Series: Passive and Active Intervals

Solar activity slowly and irregularly decreases from the first spotless day (FSD) in the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and systematically, but also in an irregular way, increases to the new cycle maximum after the last spotless day (LSD). The time interval between the first and the last spotless day can be called the passive interval (PI), while the time interval from the last spotless day to the first one after the new cycle maximum is the related active interval (AI). Minima of solar cycles are inside PIs, while maxima are inside AIs. In this article, we study the properties of passive and active intervals to determine the relation between them. We have found that some properties of PIs, and related AIs, differ significantly between two group of solar cycles; this has allowed us to classify Cycles 8?–?15 as passive cycles, and Cycles 17?–?23 as active ones. We conclude that the solar activity in the PI declining phase (a descending phase of the previous cycle) determines the strength of the approaching maximum in the case of active cycles, while the activity of the PI rising phase (a phase of the ongoing cycle early growth) determines the strength of passive cycles. This can have implications for solar dynamo models. Our approach indicates the important role of solar activity during the declining and the rising phases of the solar-cycle minimum.