面向地震巨灾保险的建筑特性快速提取方法

房屋建筑分类是抗震设计和地震风险分析的基础,是巨灾保险的纽带环节,也是结构易损性准确、完备分析的前驱保障,快速获取建筑特性参数非常关键。基于影像数据获取结构特性相比传统手段具有显著优势,然而其准确性具有一定挑战性,从影像数据得到实时的、较准确的结构特性成为地震保险数据获取技术的关注焦点。本文采用深度学习方法开展从影像数据中提取面向地震保险需求的建筑特性数据,构建基于深度学习方法的建筑高度识别模型和基于机器视觉的建筑高度识别方法,运用基于Xception神经网络深度学习和机器视觉的模型,对北京地区的建筑高度进行模型测试,该方法可为地震保险分析提供重要的基础数据支持。     

移动荷载对桥梁动力响应的影响研究——以开裂预应力混凝土简支梁为例

混凝土桥梁在工作过程中会产生裂缝,为分析移动荷载对开裂混凝土桥梁结构刚度的影响,对开裂梁动力响应进行分析。建立简支T梁桥有限元模型,并将移动荷载施加至有限元模型中。根据简支T梁桥破坏横向分布位置和强度的不同,研究不同工况下各梁荷载横向分布及不同移动速度对裂缝扩展宽度的影响。结果表明,数值模拟结果能较好地验证计算模型的准确性;在较大的移动荷载作用下,混凝土开裂,导致结构刚度减小、位移增大;随着移动荷载和速度的增加,开裂时间增加,结构刚度降低,持续时间增加,位移增大,使结构响应呈现明显非线性。     

太湖流域经济发展及其对洪涝的影响

太湖流域是我国最发达的地区之一,流域社会经济发展迅速,经济总量在全国占重要地位。太湖流域经济发展的特点是：经济发展迅速、城市化规模大、流域内区域差异明显。本文就经济发展所带来的洪涝问题做了分析,具体表现为：经济发展,地区承灾能力下降,洪涝灾害损失加大;土地利用变化,流域产水量增加,改变了洪涝形势;地面下沉影响了防洪工程的效益;圩区建设在发挥巨大的防洪除涝效益的同时,也带来负面效益。     

Geomorphology and sediment dynamics of the Liyashan oyster reefs,Jiangsu Coast,China

Oyster reefs and their spatial patterns are deemed to change the local hydrodynamic condition and exert profound impacts on the grain size, concentration and transportation of suspended sediments. Meanwhile, high suspended sediment concentration often results in excess mortality among oysters. Oyster reefs are rare and vital ecosystem in Liyashan national marine park, Jiangsu Coast, China. However, urgent conservation efforts should be made on account of the drastic reduction in reef areas. To investigate the sediment dynamics and the geomorphology, two tripod observation systems were deployed and UAV aerial surveys with elevation measurement using Real Time Kinematic (RTK) were also carried out. High mud content (60%) was found in the bed sediment at the reef ridge, causing much lower drag coefficient than other recorded values of living oyster reefs, indicating the death of oysters and the degradation of reefs in Liyashan. Ridgelines of the string reefs at 45° to the current direction and high suspended sediment concentration in the water body (50–370 mg/L) that exceeds the threshold (200 mg/L), which would affect nutrient uptake efficiency and further result in gill saturation, decrease of clearance rate and associated deposition, were probably crucial causes of the death of oysters. The findings are useful for restoring natural oyster reefs and designing artificial reefs for nature-based coastal defense.     

南大洋海-气CO_2通量研究进展

南大洋是全球最重要的CO2汇区之一。准确估算南大洋及其各海区的海-气CO2通量,是全球碳循环研究的重要内容,其对预测和评估未来南大洋在全球变暖日益加剧的背景下发挥的作用有重要意义。但由于南大洋广阔的海域,恶劣的气候条件、自身复杂的水文物理及地球化学过程等原因,目前对南大洋的CO2通量的评估不一而足,存在较大差异和不确定性。本文讨论了南大洋海-气CO2通量的估算方法和各个海域海-气CO2通量研究的最新进展,并分析了南大洋海-气CO2通量的控制及影响因素。目前对南大洋的年吸收量估计为大约在0.1-0.6PgCyr-1,同时,所有的研究都表明,其存在极大的年度变化性。并且,由于各个海区受到生物、物理和水文等各方面的影响,表层海水CO2分压(pCO2)表现出极大的时空变异性。     

基于地理信息系统的数字环境模型研究

本文提出了以遥感与地理信息系统为技术手段,用有序数值阵列的方法建立数字环境模型的新思路,具体阐述了建立数字环境模型的意义、方法和应用范围。并在建立数字环境模型的基础上,对西藏“一江两河”地区的环境综合状况进行了定量评价。     

An analysis of the causes of decadal variations of rainfall in Shandong in summer

The precipitation in Shandong in July, August as well as the whole summer (JJA) and the corresponding 500hPa geopotential height fields are analyzed by means of the SVD (singular value decomposition) methodology. It is found that the general circulations in East Asia and the Western Pacific underwent decadal changes around 1979. The geopotential height, in particular over key areas like the South China Sea and the Philippines, increased after 1979. Corresponding to the changes in the geopotential height, the rainfall in Shandong started to decrease around 1979. The synthesized analysis shows that when the geopotential height at 500hPa level decreases in the key areas, the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northward and an anticyclonic anomalous cell enforces the southerly flow over Shandong-Korea-Japan, Shandong could experience a wet period. A dry period is likely to occur when the geopotential height increases in these key areas, the subtropical high moves southward or expands westward to a great distance, and a cyclonic anomalous cell controls Shandong. Respective conceptual models for the causative mechanism are obtained for the cases of July, August and the whole summer (JJA).     

A tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones with MM5

A new tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones is put forward and planted into the NCARAFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in MM5. The scheme for the new profile can make full use of the information from routine typhoon reports, including not only the maximum wind, but also the additional information of the wind speeds of 25.7 and 15.4 ms^-1 and their corresponding radii, which are usually provided for strong cyclones. Thus, the new profile can be used to describe the outer structure of cyclones more accurately than by using the earlier scheme of MM5 in which only the maximum wind speed is considered. Numerical experimental forecasts of two strong tropical cyclones are performed to examine the new profile. Results show that by using the new profile the prediction of both cyclones‘ intensity can be obviously improved, but the effects on the track prediction of the two cyclones are different. It seems that the new profile might be more suitable for strong cyclones with shifted tracks. However, the conclusion is drawn from only two typhoon cases, so more cases are needed to evaluate the new profile.     

基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险评价方法

探讨了以灾害样本为集值的基于信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型的气象灾害风险评价方法,利用西北五省区主要农作物旱灾面积资料,对西北农业旱灾进行风险评价实例分析,通过比较表明西北农业受旱指数,成灾指数发生灾损的概率风险估计值与实际农业旱灾较吻合,该方法对灾害样本少以及小区域范围的灾害风险评价也较适合。     

Geochemical characteristics of Early Cretaceous source rocks in Boli Basin

The Early Cretaceous deposits are composed of important source rocks in Boli Basin. The types of the source rocks include black mudstones and coal (with carbonaceous mudstone). By the organic geochemical analysis methods, the authors discussed the organic petrological characters, abundance of organic matter, degree of maturity and the type of source rocks. The main micro-component of black mudstone is exinite or vitrinite, and the content of vitrinite is high in coal. The weathering of the outcrop is very serious. The abundance of organic matter in source rock reaches the poor to better rank. The major kerogens in mudstone are type-Ⅲ, type-Ⅱ2 and some type-Ⅱ1; the organic type of coal is type-Ⅲ. The thermal evolution of the source rocks in every structural unit is very different, from low-maturity to over-maturity. The depositional environment is reductive, which is good for the preservation of organic matter. The organic matter in source rocks is mainly from aquatic organisms and terrigenous input.