东北振兴政策体系解构及区域经济响应研究

本文回顾、梳理了2003—2020年东北振兴战略实施以来国家和地方出台的一系列有关政策,分别在国家、省、地市级层面归类总结、解读,对政策的层级、类型和时序进行解构性分析,并基于Python自主编程对相关政策进行文本数据挖掘,最后对东北振兴系列政策引发的区域经济及国企改革效应进行评价。结果表明：① 国家、省、地市围绕东北振兴形成了多类型、多层级、多时间节点的复杂政策系统;② 东北振兴政策体系形成与变迁具有稳定性、连续性、时效性、地域性等特征;③ 东北振兴政策从长期尺度看推动了区域经济发展,但地方对政策依赖度高,短期政策刺激效果明显但可持续性较差;④ 在政策引导和支持下,东北地区国企改革不断深化,创新驱动效果明显,但也面临关键技术瓶颈。     

中国城市流动人口心理融入的地区差异与影响因素

基于2017年流动人口动态监测调查数据,分析了中国城市流动人口心理融入的区域差异和影响因素。结果表明：① 流动人口心理融入处于较高水平;② 流动人口心理融入区域差异显著。东南沿海及少数西部城市心理融入低于全国平均水平,东北、山东和川渝等地区心理融入高于全国平均水平;③ 流动人口心理融入存在空间集聚效应。除川渝地区外,热点区集中于北方地区,冷点区集中于东南地区。④ 拥有房产、雇主身份和较高受教育水平加快流动人口的心理融入;工资收入的增加不利于心理融入,这与相对剥夺感有关;参与“新农合”对流动人口心理融入具有约束效应;暂住证/居住证及基本公共服务均等化是实现心理融入的重要途径。城市经济快速发展利于流动人口心理融入。跨省流动存在抑制作用,经济发展水平、家庭规模和本地居留时间的作用不显著。     

基于地理实践力的初中研学旅行课程设计与实践--以“北部湾海岸带野外考察”为例

本文以《义务教育地理课程标准(2011年版)》的要求为基础,聚焦初中生地理实践力的培养,依托北部湾丰富的海洋资源,以“北部湾海岸带野外考察”为例,从研学旅行课程设计、实施、评价与反思等方面进行阐述,以期为优化研学旅行课程的设计与实践提供指导与借鉴。     

UbD理论指导下的高中地理逆向教学设计——以"中国的能源安全"为例

高中地理课程改革要求重视学科大概念。UbD理论提出的逆向教学设计是在教学中落实学科大概念的重要途径。UbD理论指导下的逆向教学设计以学科大概念为核心、以学习结果为起点、评价优先,能够在教学中凸显学科大概念的价值和作用,符合新课程改革的理念。本文以人教版高中地理选择性必修3中的“中国的能源安全”为例进行逆向教学设计,提出在地理课堂中应用UbD理论进行逆向教学设计的策略。     

Use of the L2C signal for inversions of GPS radio occultation data in the neutral atmosphere

Results from processing FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultations (RO) with the new GPS L2C signal acquired both in phase locked loop (PLL) and open loop (OL) modes are presented. Analysis of L2P, L2C, and L1CA signals acquired in PLL mode shows that in the presence of strong ionospheric scintillation not only L2P tracking, but also L1CA tracking often fails, while L2C tracking is most stable. The use of L2C improves current RO processing in the neutral atmosphere mainly by increasing the number of processed occultations (due to significant reduction in the number of L2 tracking failures) and marginally by a reduction in noise in statistics. The latter is due to the combination of reduced L2C noise (compared to L2P) and increased L1CA noise in those occultations where L2P would have failed. This result suggests application of OL tracking for L1CA and L2C signals throughout an entire occultation to optimally acquire RO data. Two methods of concurrent processing of L1CA and L2C RO signals are considered. Based on testing of individual occultations, these methods allow: (1) reduction in uncertainty of bending angles retrieved by wave optics in the lower troposphere and (2) reduction in small-scale residual errors of the ionospheric correction in the stratosphere.     

地理图斑智能计算及模式挖掘方法研究

在大数据时代,高分辨率对地观测技术实现了对地球表层地理现象和地理过程最为真实、量化、全面覆盖又快速更新的数据化记录,可为地理空间认知研究的新发展奠定时空信息聚合与挖掘计算的基准。地理图斑是影像空间映射到地理空间中对于地理实体的抽象化表达,是构建地理场景和承载地理空间各类信息进而开展模式挖掘的最小单元。本文以地理图斑为基本对象,通过分析其中视觉模拟、符号推测等几类机器学习的协同计算机制,从空间、时间与属性等维度构建了集“分区分层感知”、“时空协同反演”、“多粒度决策”三者于一体的地理图斑智能计算模型,并以在贵州息烽县、广西江州区开展的农业种植结构制图与规划决策为应用案例,探索了地理图斑分布、生长以及功能3种模式的挖掘方法,并进一步设计了动态视角下开展图斑动力模式挖掘的研究思路。     

基于WebGIS技术的耕地质量动态监测信息系统研究

结合国内外有关耕地质量动态监测的相关研究理论,设置了耕地质量动态监测的监测指标,研究了监测样点的选取和耕地质量综合指数的计算,并结合WebGIS技术,对耕地质量动态监测系统的结构、功能进行了初步设计,提出了系统的总体框架,并阐述了系统实现的关键技术,建立了基于WebGIS的耕地质量监测系统对耕地质量进行长期定位监测,以期为区域耕地质量保护工作提供一个可视化、便捷式系统实现方案。     

Towards a comprehensive approach to parameter estimation in land surface parameterization schemes

In climate models, the land–atmosphere interactions are described numerically by land surface parameterization (LSP) schemes. The continuing improvement in realism in these schemes comes at the expense of the need to specify a large number of parameters that are either directly measured or estimated. Also, an emerging problem is whether the relationships used in LSPs are universal and globally applicable. One plausible approach to evaluate this is to first minimize uncertainty in model parameters by calibration. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of some model diagnostics using a slightly modified version of the Simple Biosphere 3 model for a variety of biomes located mainly in the Amazon. First, the degree of influence of each individual parameter in simulating surface fluxes is identified. Next, we estimate parameters using a multi‐operator genetic algorithm applied in a multi‐objective context and evaluate simulations of energy and carbon fluxes against observations. Compared with the default parameter sets, these parameter estimates improve the partitioning of energy fluxes in forest and cropland sites and provide better simulations of daytime increases in assimilation of net carbon during the dry season at forest sites. Finally, a detailed assessment of the parameter estimation problem was performed by accounting for the decomposition of the mean squared error to the total model uncertainty. Analysis of the total prediction uncertainty reveals that the parameter adjustments significantly improve reproduction of the mean and variability of the flux time series at all sites and generally remove seasonality of the errors but do not improve dynamical properties. Our results demonstrate that error decomposition provides a meaningful and intuitive way to understand differences in model performance. To make further advancements in the knowledge of these models, we encourage the LSP community to adopt similar approaches in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

抓住时机,大力推行系统总体设计和软件开发的工程化

气象部门研制的业务系统应用软件,取得了明显的社会效益及一定的经济效益。但由于注意标准化系统化不够,难以推广移植。而九十年代因更多信息交换的需要,不仅要注意软件开发的工程化,还应注意系统总体设计。在八五课题实施研究的时机,应大力推行系统总体设计和软件开发的工程化。     

小秦岭金矿田507脉成矿期内构造活动及矿体定位关系

根据构造控矿的观点，通过对成矿期内容矿断裂活动分析，阐述了构造活动与矿体定位的关系。