Classification of yearly extreme precipitation events and associated flood risk in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley

Fifty cases of regional yearly extreme precipitation events(RYEPEs)were identified over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1979–2016 applying the statistical percentile method.There were five types of RYEPEs,namely Yangtze Meiyu(YM-RYEPE),Huaihe Meiyu(HM-RYEPE),southwest-northeast-oriented Meiyu(SWNE-RYEPE)and typhoon I and II(TC-RYEPE)types of RYEPEs.Potential vorticity diagnosis showed that propagation trajectories of the RYEPEs along the Western Pacific Subtropical High and its steering flow were concentrated over the southern YHRV.As a result,the strongest and most frequently RYEPEs events,about 16–21 cases with average rainfall above 100 mm,occurred in the southern YHRV,particularly in the Nanjing metropolitan area.There have been 14 cases of flood-inducing RYEPEs since 1979,with the submerged area exceeding 120 km~2as simulated by the Flood Area hydraulic model,comprising six HM-RYEPEs,five YM-RYEPEs,two TC-RYEPEs,and one SWNE-RYEPE.The combination of evolving RYEPEs and rapid expansion of urban agglomeration is most likely to change the flood risk distribution over the Nanjing metropolitan area in the future.In the RCP6.0(RCP8.5)scenario,the built-up area increases at a rate of about 10.41 km~2(10 yr)~(-1)(24.67 km~2(10 yr)~(-1))from 2010 to 2100,and the area of high flood risk correspondingly increases from 3.86 km~2(3.86 km~2)to 9.00 km~2(13.51 km~2).Areas of high flood risk are mainly located at Chishan Lake in Jurong,Lukou International Airport in Nanjing,Dongshan in Jiangning District,Lishui District and other low-lying areas.The accurate simulation of flood scenarios can help reduce losses due to torrential flooding and improve early warnings,evacuation planning and risk analysis.More attention should be paid to the projected high flood risk because of the concentrated population,industrial zones and social wealth throughout the Nanjing metropolitan area.     

广东省逐年初台登陆时间的变化特点

通过对广东省初始登陆时间资料的分析,发现其具周期变化的特点。根据循环阶段（周期）的划分,比较满意地解释了近３年广东省初始登陆时间明显偏迟的原因。     

Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China

With the increasing exposure of populations and economy to natural hazards, the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall remain a key subject of study. Based on annual maximum rainfall (AM) and peaks over threshold rainfall series at 30 meteorological stations during 1960–2011 in the Huai River Basin (HRB), spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall are analyzed through regional frequency analysis method using L-moments. The accuracy and uncertainty analysis of quantile estimations are also carried out, and the regional and at-site frequency analyses are compared. Results indicate the following: (1) During 1960–2011, AM precipitation at 20 stations in the HRB shows an increasing trend, while at the other 10 stations, it shows a decreasing trend. And both the increased and decreased trends are not significant. (2) The HRB can be categorized into three homogeneous regions via cluster analysis. For both at-site and regional frequency analyses, the root mean square error values increase with the increase in return periods. The estimations are reliable enough for the return periods of less than 100 years. The quantile estimates of large return period from regional frequency analysis are more accurate and have smaller uncertainty than those from at-site frequency analysis. (3) Extreme precipitation in the HRB concentrates in the upstream of the Huai River and YiShuSi water system in the east of the HRB. Generally, the area with extreme precipitation, especially the upper reaches of the Huai River and Yimeng Mountain areas, also has large standard variations of extreme precipitation, which will increase the risk of natural hazards.     

赣中碰撞混杂岩带

毛集—二郎坪断陷带中的主体构造格架是复式倒转褶皱系。中央是朱庄（河前庄）—板山坪—太平镇主背斜带,南、北两侧各有两个倒转向斜构造。南侧为大庙—青山倒转向斜和张家大庄倒转向斜;北侧为石灰窑倒转向斜和彭老家倒转向斜。这一复式倒转褶皱系的发现及确立,对断陷带中二郎坪群及其相关地层的划分对比和海相火山岩型金、银、铁、铜、硫等矿产勘查工作具有重要意义     

四川盆地东部中二叠统茅口组热液活动特征

四川盆地中二叠统茅口组存在丰富的热液流体活动。在野外剖面和岩心观察的基础上,利用多种分析测试方法,对四川盆地东部茅口组碳酸盐岩中的热液活动特征进行了探讨。研究区茅口组热液活动包括2类,一类为硅质热液,表现为薄层硅质岩或硅质团块;另一类为碳酸盐型热液,表现为粗晶方解石和白云石充填在张性构造裂缝中或呈"雪片状"集合体,偶见少量黄铁矿、闪锌矿等金属硫化物伴生。硅质岩主量元素之间的关系表明硅质来源具有多样性,是热液硅与壳源硅的混合;黄铁矿、闪锌矿原位S同位素δ34S介于-3.91‰~-6.87‰之间,推测可能受到了微生物和基性岩浆岩的双重影响;方解石脉和具鞍状双晶的白云石脉普遍具有Ca O高于标准计量、相对富Sr和U、贫REE和Ti、Ce/Ce*明显负异常、Eu/Eu*主体正异常、Y正异常等特征,表明碳酸盐脉为热液活动的产物,流体来源也呈现出火山活动相关流体与富钙地下水混合的特点。闪锌矿富集Ge和Cd,Zn/Cd及Zn/Fe值反映了中等成矿温度。硅质岩和碳酸盐流体包裹体均一温度变化范围较大,介于54.7~294.3℃之间,与稀土元素和微量元素比值所揭示的特征吻合。研究结果表明,穿层状硅质结核和团块的首次出现往往标志着茅口组热液活动的开始,而张性构造裂缝和碳酸盐型热液活动带来的围岩白云化作用则有效地改善了白云岩储集层的物性。     

淤泥质海岸入海河口闸下港道河相关系

以江苏沿海北部的射阳河闸下港道为原型,建立二维水动力及泥沙输运概化数学模型,模拟了淤泥质海岸闸下港道淤积过程。分别在不考虑径流年内分配变化和考虑径流年内分配变化的情况下,研究了入海径流对港道内水沙动力和冲淤演变的影响。参考前人研究成果,结合量纲和谐准则,根据模型的计算结果,建立了淤泥质海岸闸下港道年均平衡流量与汛期排水比例、河床断面积、外海潮差、潮波变形、港道长度等因素间的河相关系式,对在实际情况中达到动态冲淤平衡的某条特定港道,可简化为港道年均流量与河床断面积间关系式的简化形式,并通过分析实测资料,对公式的简化形式加以佐证。     

遗传算法中的光滑约束反演及其在青藏高原面波研究中的应用

光滑约束技术在线性反演中具有重要的作用,但在遗传算法的反演中则很难直接施加于模型参数,其原因是采用光滑处理后的模型参与迭代后,模型的多样性受到很强的压制,并在少量的迭代过程中使种群的各个模型趋向一致,从而得不到满足条件的最优解．本文给出了一种可用于遗传算法反演的间接光滑约束方法．该方法将遗传算法迭代过程中产生的模型经处理后得到的光滑模型,作为误差函数计算的输入模型．迭代过程仍采用原模型,避免了模型的多样性损失,在面波反演和接收函数反演的试验中取得了良好的效果．我们利用该方法对青藏高原地区的瑞利波相速度资料进行了反演,揭示了青藏高原中部地区S波速度结构的横向变化特征．结果表明,青藏高原北部地区地壳Ｓ波速度较南部地区低;大多数路径在15～40ｋｍ 深度范围内,存在12～25ｋｍ 厚的地壳低速层;上地幔低速层位于100ｋｍ 深度以下,厚度主要在40～80ｋｍ 范围内变化,个别路径可达100ｋｍ 以上．安多台以北、玛沁和玉树以西之间,在上地幔90～230ｋｍ 深度范围存在明显的低速层,最低速度约4.2～ 4.3km／s．根据不同路径的S波速度结构和前人的资料,我们认为印度板块的俯冲可能以雅鲁藏布缝合带附近为界．     

西藏色布塔铜钼矿床中辉钼矿Re-Os定年及其成矿意义

色布塔铜钼矿床位于冈底斯成矿带北部,具有细脉浸染状矿化,围岩蚀变发育等斑岩型铜钼矿床特征.本文使用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪TJA X-series ICP-MS对色布塔铜钼矿床的花岗斑岩中的辉钼矿进行ReOs同位素定年研究,获得了6件样品的模式年龄为87.52±1.35～88.8±1.26Ma,等时线年龄为88.8±1.5Ma.本文研究成果表明,色布塔铜钼矿成矿时代为晚白垩世早期,属燕山期构造-岩浆活动的产物.     

北极海冰细菌产胞外酶及主要环境因子的初步研究

覆盖在北极海洋上的广阔海冰为其内部生存的微生物群落提供了一个独特的生境。研究表明 ,大量海冰细菌能够分泌产生胞外酶 ,其中产蛋白或脂质水解酶细菌的比例远高于产多糖水解酶的细菌。温度、盐度是直接影响海冰细菌生存与活力的 2个主要环境因子。 76%的产酪蛋白酶海冰细菌为低温菌 ,菌株只能在 <35°C条件下生长 ;而 98%的酪蛋白酶最适作用温度≥ 35°C ,其中 62 %的酶最适作用温度≥ 45°C。几乎所有的产酪蛋白酶海冰细菌都耐盐或嗜盐     

南极无冰区古海蚀龛沉积──古环境研究的新材料

首次在西南极菲尔德斯半岛长城站地区发现了保存完好的古海蚀龛沉积物 ,研究表明它是后期冰水湖泊沉积环境下的产物 ,该沉积剖面的形成环境反映了本地区距今 46 0 0年以来地貌演化、冰盖进退与古气候的演化过程。古海蚀龛沉积剖面的发现 ,为目前主要基于湖泊沉积物、海洋沉积物及冰芯等进行的南极无冰区古环境研究领域 ,提供了一种新的研究载体。