A radar-based verification of precipitation forecast for local convective storms

Local flash flood storms with a rapid hydrological response are a real challenge for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). It is relevant to assess space domains, to which the QPF approaches are applicable. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the forecasting capability of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by means of area-related QPF verification. The results presented concern two local convective events, which occurred in the Czech Republic (CR) on 13 and 15 July 2002 and caused local flash floods. We used the LM COSMO model (Lokall Model of the COSMO consortium) adapted to the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km over a model domain covering the CR. The 18 h forecast of convective precipitation was verified by using radar rainfall totals adjusted to the measured rain gauge data. The grid point-related root mean square error (RMSE) value was calculated over a square around the grid point under the assumption that rainfall values were randomly distributed within the square. The forecast accuracy was characterized by the mean RMSE over the whole verification domain. We attempt to show a dependence of both the RMSE field and the mean RMSE on the square size. The importance of a suitable merger between the radar and rain gauge datasets is demonstrated by a comparison between the verification results obtained with and without the gauge adjustment. The application of verification procedure demonstrates uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts. The model was integrated with initial conditions shifted by 0.5° distances. The four verifications, corresponding to the shifts in the four directions, show differences in the resulting QPF, which depend on the size of verification area and on the direction of the shift.     

Effect of oxygen fugacity on the H2O storage capacity of forsterite in the carbon-saturated systems

High pressure experiments have been performed in the systems Mg₂SiO₄-C-O-H and Mg₂SiO₄-K₂CO₃-C at 6.3 GPa and 1200 to 1600 °C using a split-sphere multi-anvil apparatus. In the Mg₂SiO₄-C-O-H system the composition of fluid was modeled by adding different amounts of water and stearic acid. The fO₂ was controlled by the Mo-MoO₂ or Fe-FeO oxygen buffers. Several experiments in the Mg₂SiO₄-C-O-H system and all experiments in the Mg₂SiO₄-K₂CO₃-C system have been conducted without buffering the fO₂. Forsterite in the system Mg₂SiO₄-K₂CO₃-C does not reveal OH absorption bands in the IR spectra, while forsterite coexisting with carbon-bearing fluid and silicate melt at logfO₂ from FMQ-2 to FMQ-5 (from 2 to 5 log units below fayalite-magnetite-quartz oxygen buffer) contains 800-1850 wt. ppm H₂O. The maximum concentrations were detected at 1400 °C and FMQ-3.5. We observed an increase in the solidus temperature in the system Mg₂SiO₄-C-O-H from 1200 to above 1600 °C with log fO₂ decreasing from FMQ-2 to FMQ-5. The increase of the solidus temperature and the broadening of the stability field of the H₂O-H₂-CH₄ subsolidus fluid phase at 1400-1600 °C explain the high H₂O storage capacity of forsterite relative to that crystallized from carbon-free, oxidized, hydrous, silicic melt. At temperatures above 1400 °C liquidus forsterite precipitated along with diamond from oxidized (FMQ-1) carbonate-silicate melt and from silicate melt dissolving the moderately reduced C-O-H fluid (from FMQ-2 to FMQ-3.5). Formation of diamond was not detected under ultra-reduced conditions (FMQ-5) at 1200-1600 °C. Olivine co-precipitating with diamond from dry carbonate-silicate or hydrous-silicic fluid/melt can provide information on the H₂O contents and speciation of the diamond-forming media in the mantle. The conditions for minimum post-crystallization alteration of olivine and its hydrogen content are discussed.     

中亚造山带中的燃烧变质事件及其年代学研究

Combustion metamorphic(pyrometamorphic)complexes produced by prehistoric natural coal fires are widespread inCentral Asia,namely at the interfaces between mountain systems and the flanking sedimentary basins.Large-scale and prolonged firesaccompanied the initial orogenic stages as unweathered coal-bearing formations became exposed into the aeration zone.Pyrometamorphic rocks are comparable to sanidinite facies rocks in formation conditions and in alteration of sedimentary material but,unlike these,their protolith underwent different melting degrees to produce either ferrous basic paralavas or glazed clinkers.The phasecomposition of the newly-formed melted rocks are favorable for~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar dating of combustion metamorphic events which are coeval tothe onset of the main stage of recent orogenic events.We suggest a new algorithm providing correct ~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar dating ofpyrometamorphic rocks followed by well-grounded geological interpretation.We studied pyrometamorphic rocks in the western Salairzone of the Kuznetsk coal basin where combustion metamorphism under temperatures above 1000℃acted upon large volumes of coal-bearing sediments.Samples of paralavas were dated by the step heating ~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar method checked against internal(plateau andisochrone ages)and external("criterions of couple")mineralogical criterions,and against preliminary dating from geological andstratigraphic evidence.As a result,we distinguished two groups of dates for combustion metamorphic events.The first one(1.2±0.4Ma)is drawn towards the west boundary of Prokopyevsk-Kiselevsk block of Salair zone,while the second one(0.2±0.3Ma)isconfined to its east boundary.The former ages represent rocks in the western edge of the Prokopievsk-Kiselevsk block of the Salair zoneand the latter ages correspond to those in its eastern edge.The dates record the time when the fault boundaries of the blocks wererejuvenated during recent activity and the block accreted to the Salair orogenic area as a piedmont step.These are the first absolute agesobtained for the onset of uplift of the northern edge of the Ahai-Sayan area,the key event of its neotectonic history.The suggestedapproach to the choice of objects,classification of rocks,and interpretation of~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar data is universal and can be practiced in anyarea subjected to combustion metamorphism.     

Monticellite–Spurrite Symplectites: Evidence for a Regressive Stage of the Kochumdek Trap Contact Aureole (Krasnoyarsk Region)

Geology of Ore Deposits - We study merwinite and products of its retrograde exsolution (monticellite and spurrite) from marbles of a contact metamorphic aureole in the Kochumdek River area (East...     

Conditions of carbonation and wehrlitization of lithospheric peridotite upon interaction with carbonatitic melts

Study of the mechanism of carbonation and wehrlitization of harzburgite upon metasomatism by carbonatitic melts of various genesis was carried out. Experiments with durations of 60–150 h were performed at 6.3 GPa and 1200°C. The data showed that carbonatite with MgO/CaO > 0.3 percolating into the peridotitic lithosphere may provide crystallization of magnesite in it. The influence of all studied carbonatites results in wehrlitization of peridotite. The compositions of melts formed by interaction with harzburgite (～2 wt % SiO₂, Ca# = 36–47) practically do not depend on the composition of the initial carbonatite. Based on the data obtained, we conclude that the formation of magnesite-bearing and magnesite-free metasomatized peridotites may have a significant influence on the CO₂ regime in the further generation of kimberlitic magmas of groups I and II.     

Fluid regime and diamond formation in the reduced mantle: Experimental constraints

The composition and potential diamond productivity of C–O–H fluids that could exist in the reduced regions of the Earth’s upper mantle and in the mantles of Uranus and Neptune were studied in experiments at 6.3 GPa and 1400–1600 °C and durations of 15–48 h. Hydrogen fugacity in the fluid phase was controlled by the Mo–MoO₂ or Fe–FeO buffers, using a specially modified double-capsule method. The oxygen fugacity in the samples was controlled by adding different amounts of water, stearic acid, anthracene, and docosane to a graphite charge. At high P–T conditions, the degree of decomposition of the heavy hydrocarbons added to the charge was 99.9%. The composition of the fluids coexisting with graphite/diamond in the buffered experiments varied from H₂O  H₂ > CH₄ (at fO₂ somewhat lower than the “water maximum”) to H₂ > CH₄ > (C₂H₄ + C₂H₆)>C₃H₈ (in C–H system). In the C–H system the maximum concentrations of major species in the synthesized fluid were: H₂ = 79 mol.% and CH₄ = 21 mol.%. The composition of the H₂-rich fluids, which were synthesized at 6.3 GPa and 1400–1600 °C for the first time, differs considerably from that of the ultra-reduced CH₄-rich fluids stable at 2.0–3.5 GPa and 1000–1300 °C. Thermodynamic calculations of the reduced C–O–H fluids at the P–T conditions of the experiments revealed CH₄-rich compositions (CH₄  H₂ > (C₂H₄ + C₂H₆)>C₃H₈), which however drastically differed from the synthesized compositions. The rates of diamond nucleation and growth in the experiments depended on the fluid composition. Diamond crystallization had a maximum intensity in the pure aqueous fluids, while in the H₂-rich fluids no diamond formation was observed. Only metastable graphite precipitated from the ultra-reduced fluids. The type of the initial hydrocarbon used for the fluid generation did not affect this process.     

Quaternary travertine of the Kurai fault zone (Gorny Altai)

In the Kurai fault zone, travertine forms a matrix cementing clastic material of colluvial and glacial deposits or rarely forming a stockwork in a system of fractures in Palaeozoic rocks. The regular change of composition of solutions in the process of travertine formation has resulted in change of stable Mg–calcite by Sr–aragonite. According to the carbon isotopic composition, the travertine has intermediate genesis between thermal and meteogene. The light oxygen isotopic composition of CaCO₃ indicates formational water input. The carbonates inherited Y, Sr, U, and Ni and in some areas, V, As, and Zn from the endogeneous water sources. Given that the Kurai zone travertine cements the Late Pleistocene–Holocene sediments and ¹⁴C dating of the carbonates gives a range of >40 000–3475 ± 35 years, the faults serving as routes of migration of the solutions forming the travertine should be considered as active structures.     

Phases of the Fe–C–N system as hosts of mantle carbon and nitrogen: Experimental studies at 7.8 GPa and 1350°C

Parts of the Fe–C–N system were studied in experiments at 7.8 GPa and 1350°C. It was shown that the admixture of nitrogen extends considerably the domain of melt stability in the system at temperatures close to the Fe–Fe₃C eutectic temperatures. Nitrogen solubility in cementite in equilibrium with the nitrogen- rich melt is below the detection limit of the EMPA technique applied. The metal melt is the only nitrogen concentrator (up to 4 wt % of N) in the range of compositions considered. The data obtained permit the conclusion that, in the case of complete dissolution of carbon and nitrogen, which might occur in the enriched mantle, native iron at ~250 km depth should either be completely molten or consist of a melt and carbide of iron.     

Hydrogen incorporation into forsterite in Mg2SiO4–K2Mg(CO3)2–H2O and Mg2SiO4–H2O–C at 7.5–14.0 GPa

Experiments on water solubility in forsterite in the systems Mg₂SiO₄–K₂Mg(CO₃)₂–H₂O and Mg₂SiO₄–H₂O–C were conducted at 7.5–14.0 GPa and 1200–1600 °C. The resulting crystals contain 448 to 1480 ppm water, which is 40–70% less than in the forsterite–water system under the same conditions. This can be attributed to lower water activity in the carbonate-bearing melt. The water content of forsterite was found to vary systematically with temperature and pressure. For instance, at 14 GPa in the system forsterite–carbonate–H₂O the H₂O content of forsterite drops from 1140 ppm at 1200 °C to 450 ppm at 1600 °C, and at 8 GPa it remains constant or increases from 550 to 870 ppm at 1300–1600 °C. Preliminary data for D-H-bearing forsterite are reported. Considerable differences were found between IR spectra of D-H- and H-bearing forsterite. The results suggest that CO₂ can significantly affect the width of the olivine-wadsleyite transition, i.e., the 410-km seismic discontinuity, which is a function of the water content of olivine and wadsleyite.