Damage reconstruction of 3D frames using genetic algorithms with Levenberg–Marquardt local search

A damage detection method based on harmonic structural vibrations has been applied to reconstruct typical damage patterns of reinforced concrete beams and frames vibrating in three dimensions. It has been shown that comparison of harmonic vibrations of damaged and intact structures makes it possible to formulate optimization criterion which can be solved effectively for large number of unknowns. The application of combined genetic algorithms and Levenberg–Marquardt local search enabled to reconstruct vectors of distinct stiffness distributions containing up to 32 elements with stiffness loss as low as 5% and with accuracy of 1%. To test the algorithm in more realistic environment of practical data acquisition, measuring noise with various levels has been added to the analyzed signal. Such a method of damage detection can be quite effective during post-earthquake assessment of civil engineering structures or if one wants to control the stiffness loss of a reinforced concrete structure after it was accidentally overloaded.     

Statistics of Scalar Fields in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Based on Large-eddy Simulations. Part 1: Free Convection

Convection in a quasi-steady, cloud-free, shear-free atmospheric boundary layer is investigated based on a large-eddy simulation model. The performed tests indicate that the characteristic (peak) values of statistical moments at the top of the mixed layer are proportional to the interfacial scales (from gradients of scalars in the interfacial layer). Based on this finding a parameterization is proposed for profiles of scalar variances. The parameterization employs two, semi-empirical similarity functions F_m(z/z_i) andF_i(z/z_i), multiplied by a combination of the mixed-layer scales and the interfacial scales.     

On the origin of copper mineralization in the Kupferschiefer: a suIphur isotope study*

Sulphur isotopic compositions of copper and iron sulphides (dispersed and vein mineralization) from the Polish part of the Kupferschiefer were determined and compared with data from the literature. Most of the δ³⁴S values of sulphides range from about -40 to -25%, indicating sulphide precipitation during bacterial sulphate reduction in an open system which gradually chanes into a closed system. Sulphides from veins are usually enriched in ³⁴S compared to finely dispersed mineralization and were probably formed in a more closed system. Copper sulphides are generally a few permil heavier than pyrite. Coupled with detailed microscopical observations the isotope data suggest that the mineralization is either syngenetic or early diagenetic.     

Pricing of uncertain certified emission reductions in a Chinese coal mine methane project with an extended Rubinstein-Ståhl model

The development of coal mine methane (CMM) projects is subject to various kinds of risk, one of these being their highly variable methane content. In this study, a new methodology is proposed to reflect the impact of this uncertainty on a negotiated Certified Emission Reduction (CER) price, which is based on the available information. To simulate a process of price negotiation the Rubinstein-Ståhl bargaining game is utilized, where a buyer’s discount factor is unknown. It is assumed that a buyer’s willingness to accomplish price negotiations depends on the CER uncertainty. The bargaining model has been extended by introducing dependence of its three parameters on the probability of a failure to fulfil the contracted CER amount. To quantify this probability, we develop a conditional distribution given information on the point estimate of methane amount for the project under consideration, and on the distribution of available estimates from coal mines having similar characteristics. The proposed approach is applied to a particular CMM capture and utilization project in Anhui province, China. The results indicate that the uncertainty influence is significant, particularly when the credibility of a seller increases, i.e. the probability of a failure to fulfil the project decreases. The analysis can be of use to both negotiating parties at an early stage of a comprehensive CMM project planning.     

Uncertainty in an emissions-constrained world

Our study focuses on uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from anthropogenic sources, including land use and land-use change activities. We aim to understand the relevance of diagnostic (retrospective) and prognostic (prospective) uncertainty in an emissions-temperature setting that seeks to constrain global warming and to link uncertainty consistently across temporal scales. We discuss diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty in a systems setting that allows any country to understand its national and near-term mitigation and adaptation efforts in a globally consistent and long-term context. Cumulative emissions are not only constrained and globally binding but exhibit quantitative uncertainty; and whether or not compliance with an agreed temperature target will be achieved is also uncertain. To facilitate discussions, we focus on two countries, the USA and China. While our study addresses whether or not future increase in global temperature can be kept below 2, 3, or 4 °C targets, its primary aim is to use those targets to demonstrate the relevance of both diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty. We show how to combine diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty to take more educated (precautionary) decisions for reducing emissions toward an agreed temperature target; and how to perceive combined diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty-related risk. Diagnostic uncertainty is the uncertainty contained in inventoried emission estimates and relates to the risk that true GHG emissions are greater than inventoried emission estimates reported in a specified year; prognostic uncertainty refers to cumulative emissions between a start year and a future target year, and relates to the risk that an agreed temperature target is exceeded.     

Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications,or is more research needed?

Citation Kundzewicz, Z. W. & Stakhiv, E. Z. (2010) Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed? Editorial. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1085–1089.     

Paleolithic hunting in a southern Moravian landscape: The case of Milovice IV,Czech Republic

The Dolní Věstonice–Pavlov–Milovice area (Czech Republic) on the slopes of the Pavlov Hills provides an opportunity for correlating the geomorphology of the Dyje River valley with Gravettian settlement patterns. Although the sites vary in size and complexity, they create a regular chain of strategic locations at elevations between 200 m and 240 m asl. In 2009, a road collapsed into deserted cellars inside the village of Milovice and revealed a complex of archaeological layers deep within loess, at an elevation of only 175 m asl. This paper presents an analysis of this atypical archaeological site location and compares the results with the other sites. We argue that this location allowed direct contact with mammoth herds concentrated on the floodplain, while the aquatic environment offered possibilities for gathering plants and fishing. This site represents a new aspect of organized settlement, hunting strategies, and short‐distance human movements during the Gravettian within this area. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Fe–S mineralization in the Jurassic biogenic remains (Częstochowa,Poland)

Various Fe–S minerals of the mackinawite–greigite–pyrite association, ubiquitous in biogenic remains from Jurassic mudstones, have been described in detail in an SEM–EDS study. Two diagenetic stages of Fe sulphide formation and preservation in the Jurassic organic skeletons are identified. In the first stage, pyrite formed as euhedra and framboids shortly after deposition, mainly in the interiors of the skeletons which still contained labile organic matter. The second stage of iron sulphide formation was related to the later stages of diagenesis, when the influence of the surrounding sediment was more dominant, although some organic matter was still present in the biogenic skeletons. A Fe-rich carbonate–aluminosilicate cement was then introduced between the earliest iron sulphides and later subsequently sulphidized, to form a metastable iron monosulphide of mackinawite composition and then greigite.