Local similarity of spectral and cospectral characteristics in the stable-continuous boundary layer

The local similarity theory, presented in the recent papers of Sorbjan (1986a, b), is extended by taking into consideration spectral (u, v, w, ) and cospectral (uw, w, u) densities in the stable-continuous boundary layer. The resulting universal expressions for spectra, cospectra and the reduced frequencies of their peaks are in agreement with empirical data from the Kansas 1968 surface-layer and Minnesota 1973 boundary-layer experiments. In addition, the universal functions for the structure parameters and the dissipation rates are also derived and shown to fit the empirical data well.On leave from Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw Polytechnic University, 00653 Warsaw, Poland.     

AFORS autonomous fibre-optic rotational seismograph: Design and application

We outline the research leading to development of the Autonomous Fibre-Optic Rotational Seismograph (AFORS) and describe the final version of the instrument. The instrument with linear changes of sensitivity keeps accuracy from 5.1 × 10⁻⁹ to 5.5 × 10⁻⁸ rad/s in the detection bandpass 1.66–212.30 Hz; it is designed for a direct measurement of rotational components emitted during seismic events. The presented system is based on the optical part of the fibre optic gyro construction where a special autonomous signal processing unit (ASPU) optimizes its operation for the measurement of rotation motions instead of the angular changes. The application of a newly designed telemetric system based on the Internet allows for a remote system control, as shown in an example of the system’s operation in Książ (Poland) seismological observatory.     

Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective—a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from “simple to complex” and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates.     

Statistics of shallow convection on Mars based on large-eddy simulations. Part 1: shearless conditions

Results of large-eddy simulations of shallow, quasi-steady, shear-less convection in the Martian boundary layer are presented and discussed. In the considered three cases, turbulence is forced by the radiative flux divergence, prescribed as given functions of height, and the strength of the surface heat flux. It is constrained by the temperature inversion at the boundary-layer top. The resulting convective boundary layer exhibits horizontal cellular structures. The presence of radiative heating causes dimensionless statistics of turbulence to depend on the parameter F, defined in terms of the integrated radiative and turbulent heating rates in the boundary layer.     

Gradient-based similarity in the atmospheric boundary layer

The “flux-based” and “gradient-based” similarity in the stable boundary layer and also in the interfacial part of the convective boundary layer is discussed. The stable case is examined on the basis of data collected during the CASES-99 experiment. Its interfacial counterpart is considered in both the quasi-steady (mid-day) and non-steady states, utilizing the results of large-eddy simulations. In the stable regime, the “gradient-based” approach is not unique and can be based on various master length scales. Three local master length scales are considered: the local Monin-Obukhov scale, the buoyancy scale, and the Ellison scale. In the convective “quasi-steady” (mid-day) case, the “mixed layer” scaling is shown to be valid in the mixed layer and invalid in the interfacial layer. The temperature variance profile in non-steady conditions can be expressed in terms of the convective temperature scale in the mixed layer. The analogous prediction for velocity variances is not valid under non-steady conditions.     

Farewell,HSJ!—address from the retiring editor

On the eve of my retirement as co-editor of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) and Hydrological Sciences Journal (HSJ), I would like to take the opportunity to address the HSJ audience with some reflections about the journal and the publishing system.     

Climatological drivers of changes in flood hazard in Germany

Since several destructive floods have occurred in Germany in the last decades, it is of considerable interest and relevance (e.g., when undertaking flood defense design) to take a closer look at the climatic factors driving the changes in flood hazard in Germany. Even if there also exist non-climatic factors controlling the flood hazard, the present paper demonstrates that climate change is one main driver responsible for the increasing number of floods. Increasing trends in temperature have been found to be ubiquitous in Germany, with impact on air humidity and changes in (intense) precipitation. Growing trends in flood prone circulation pattern and heavy precipitation are significant in many regions of Germany over a multi-decade interval and this can be translated into the rise of flood hazard and flood risk.     

Changes in thermal extremes in Poland

Changes in thermal extremes of the climate of Poland in 1951–2010 are examined. Warm extremes have become more frequent, while cold extremes have become less frequent. In the warming climate of Poland, the increase in the number of extremely warm days in a year and the decrease in the number of extremely cold days in a year have been observed. Also the increase of the maximum number of consecutive hot days in a year and the decrease of the maximum number of consecutive very cold and extremely cold days in a year have been observed. However, the trends are not of ubiquitous statistic significance, as the natural variability is strong.     

Compliance and emission trading rules for asymmetric emission uncertainty estimates

Greenhouse gases emission inventories are computed with rather low precision. Moreover, their uncertainty distributions may be asymmetric. This should be accounted for in the compliance and trading rules. In this paper we model the uncertainty of inventories as intervals or using fuzzy numbers. The latter allows us to better shape the uncertainty distributions. The compliance and emission trading rules obtained generalize the results for the symmetric uncertainty distributions that were considered in the earlier papers by the present authors (Nahorski et al., Water Air & Soil Pollution. Focus 7(4–5):539–558, 2007; Nahorski and Horabik, 2007, J Energy Eng 134(2):47–52, 2008). However, unlike in the symmetric distribution, in the asymmetric fuzzy case it is necessary to apply approximations because of nonlinearities in the formulas. The final conclusion is that the interval uncertainty rules can be applied, but with a much higher substitutional noncompliance risk, which is a parameter of the rules.