Evaluation of past,present and future tools for radar-based flash-flood prediction in the USA

Abstract

The societal impacts of flash floods are more significant than any other weather-related hazard. They are often manifested in the form of damage to infrastructure, flooding of roadways and bridges, creating deadly hazards to motorists and inundation of crops and pasture. Some of these hazards can be anticipated and thus mitigated given effective warning systems. This study describes the tools proposed over recent decades in the USA to predict flash flooding and evaluates them using a common observational data set. Design recommendations for flash-flood forecasting systems are provided, taking into account today's availability of high-resolution rainfall data at scales commensurate with flash flooding, their archives, spatial data sets to describe physiographic properties, and ever-increasing computational resources.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Gourley, J.J., Flamig, Z.L., Hong, Y., and Howard, K.W., 2014. Evaluation of past, present and future tools for radar-based flash-flood prediction in the USA. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1377–1389. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.919391     

Simulation of Flow in a Complex Aquifer System Subjected to Long-Term Well Network Growth

In west-central Lower Peninsula of Michigan, population growth and expanded agricultural activities over recent decades have resulted in significant increases in distributed groundwater withdrawals. The growth of the extensive well network and anecdotes of water shortages (dry wells) have raised concerns over the region's groundwater sustainability. We developed an unsteady, three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow model to describe system dynamics over the last 50 years and evaluate long-term impacts of groundwater use. Simulating this large aquifer system was challenging; the site is characterized by strong, spatially distributed, and statistically nonstationary heterogeneity, making it difficult to avoid over-parameterization using traditional approaches for conceptualizing and calibrating a flow model. Moreover, traditional pumping and water level data were lacking and prohibitively expensive to collect given the large-scale and long-term nature of this study. An integrated, stochastic-deterministic approach was developed to characterize the system and calibrate the flow model through innovative use of high-density water well datasets. This approached allowed (1) implementation of a “zone-based,” nonstationary stochastic approach to conceptualize complex spatial variability using a small set of geologic material types; (2) modeling the spatiotemporal evolution of many water well withdrawals across several decades using sector-based parameterization; and (3) critical analysis of long-term water level changes at different locations in the aquifer system for characterizing the system dynamics and calibrating the model. Results show the approach is reasonably successful in calibrating a complex model for a highly complex site in a way that honors complex distributed heterogeneity and stress configurations.     

Investigation of drainage basin geometry near an anomalously straight reach of the Big Black River,Mississippi, USA

Drainage basin geometry was analyzed in the lower portion of the Big Black River, Mississippi. The study was centered on a reach of the Big Black River that encompasses an anomalous straight reach (ASR) and has morphometric characteristics that differ from those of upstream and downstream reaches. The study area was divided into three reaches, defined by alluvial valley and active floodplain width, sinuosity, and slope. Tributary streams with confluences in the three study reaches were investigated for evidence of surface tilting, and channel and valley slopes and sinuosity were measured. The average stream channel and valley slopes within the middle reach are nearly double those of the upper and lower reaches. Lateral stream migration within the tributary basins was quantitatively analyzed by measuring the asymmetry factor (AF) and transverse topographic symmetry factor (T) indices. While AF results suggest minimal to no lateral migration within the tributaries, the T results show some shifting. The results are inconclusive regarding the possible effect of neotectonic activity in the study area near the ASR. The mean southward migration may indicate a preferred migration direction relative to the general dip of the coastal plain and plunge of the Mississippi Embayment.     

Remote data analysis, visualization and problem solving environment (PSE) based on wavelets in the geosciences

We discuss here the issues faced by earth scientists in analyzing and visualizing large datasets over a GRID-like setup from a client-server perspective. We approach this problem by using a remote, web-based visualization and data analysis framework, called WEB-IS, and by employing second-generation wavelets as a means for reducing the amount of data transferred and for extracting coherent features in complex geophysical flows and surface faulting patterns. As an example, we describe how onboard processors on satellites can function as a server for beaming down extracted information to the client computer on the ground, thus exemplifying WEB-IS as a viable middleware on a GRID network for geosciences.Reviewed by: Prof. I.D. Clemens, Prof. L. Hanyk     

Antiphase hydrogen and oxygen isotope periodicity in chert nodules

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope analyses were made of Jurassic-age chert nodules from the Holy Cross Mountains, SE Poland, along radial transects at high spatial resolution. There is a radial “sigmoidal” periodicity for both isotope ratios, but the two are out of phase, with high δD values corresponding to low δ¹⁸O values. Periodicity for a 100- to 120-mm diameter nodule is approximately 16 mm, increasing slightly toward the rim, with amplitudes approaching 20 and 3.0‰ for hydrogen and oxygen, respectively. The combined hydrogen-oxygen isotope data for one nodule fall on a published curve for chert forming in equilibrium with seawater (Knauth and Epstein, 1976); the range of delta values corresponds to temperature variations of ∼10°C. Data for a second chert fall on a subparallel δD-δ¹⁸O line with δD values that are almost 50‰ lower. The δD-δ¹⁸O patterns for the nodules cannot be explained by periodic mixing of meteoric and ocean water because the hydrogen and oxygen isotope data are out of phase. Two possible explanations for the antiphase periodicity are (a) cyclical temperature variations, perhaps related to an unstable convection system (e.g., Bolton et al., 1999), and (b) self-organizing catalytic precipitation (e.g., Wang and Merino, 1990). The systematic isotopic variations are difficult to explain by diagenesis and strongly suggest that primary isotopic compositions are preserved. The isotopic data provide important information on the thermal history of the sedimentary basin, if temperature variations are the cause of the isotopic periodicity.     

40Ar/39Ar Geochronology and stable isotope geochemistry of Late-Hercynian intrusions from north-eastern Iberia with implications for argon loss in K-feldspar

The cooling history of Hercynian calc-alkalic, post-kinematic plutonic intrusions of the Montnegre massif (NE Spain) has been determined by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar analysis of two hornblendes, four biotites and eight K-feldspars (Kfs). The hornblendes have ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar total fusion ages of 291Dž Ma and define the magmatic cooling of the basic and oldest structural intrusions. The biotites from the acid and intermediate rocks have ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar plateau ages of 285Dž Ma, which date cooling of the intrusions through argon closure in biotite. The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of the K-feldspars vary widely, ranging from 276-191 Ma. A correlation between K-feldspar ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar total fusion age and several other features such as structural state, microstructures indicated by obliquity and, to some degree, optically visible perthites, is consistent with post-crystallisation partial argon loss in the K-feldspars. The 'D values of the biotites also correlate with age and chlorite contents, but this is not so for the '¹⁸O values of either feldspar or quartz. We infer that most microtextural changes occurred during cooling of the batholith, but a possibly Mesozoic, late disturbing hydrothermal event of weak intensity and with only minor fluid circulation must have occurred. This event provoked significant argon loss in the most structurally complex K-feldspars and is recorded in the hydrogen, but not oxygen, isotope data.     

Gravitational radiation damping and the three-body problem

A model of three-body motion is developed which includes the effects of gravitational radiation reaction. The radiation reaction due to the emission of gravitational waves is the only post-Newtonian effect that is included here. For simplicity, all of the motion is taken to be planar. Two of the masses are viewed as a binary system, and the third mass, whose motion will be a fixed orbit around the centre-of-mass of the binary system, is viewed as a perturbation. This model aims to describe the motion of a relativistic binary pulsar that is perturbed by a third mass. Numerical integration of this simplified model reveals that, given the right initial conditions and parameters, one can see resonances. These ( m , n ) resonances are defined by the resonance condition,   mω =2 n Ω  , where m and n are relatively prime integers, and ω and Ω are the angular frequencies of the binary orbit and third mass orbit (around the centre-of-mass of the binary), respectively. The resonance condition consequently fixes a value for the semimajor axis of the binary orbit for the duration of the resonance; therefore the binary energy remains constant on average, while its angular momentum changes during the resonance.     

Interactive Statistical Analysis of Complex Mantle Flows with the Web

Up to now, all of the figures in mantle convection literature have been presented in a static manner, where the fields at one scale are shown on a printed page . This is no longer possible with the spatial resolution increasing at an ever rising clip and the appearance of the issue of multi-scale structures. Because of the onslaught of data-flooding and the growing complexity of strongly time-varying physical fields from compressible mantle convection, such as the adiabaticity, and other thermo dynamical heating functions, we can no longer afford to display and look at the results in the same static way as in a book. We have developed a new approach for interrogating data coming out from numerical simulations. This is based on an interactive two-dimensional map which is used over the WEB with a client-server paradigm. We have applied this to investigate mantle convection flows in both two-and three-dimensional situations. The distributions of thermal anomalies found are no longer Gaussian but sometimes have long tails, especially near the edges of plume heads. The same is also found for the distribution of mechanical heating, which can be quite skewed. Our experiences with this new interactive mode of data-query have shown both the educational and scientific importance of using the world wide web media to quiz handily the data taken from large-scale numerical simulations.