长三角地区民宿的空间分布及影响因素

近年来,民宿作为旅游业发展的新兴模式,日益受到关注,并呈现蓬勃发展状态。以民宿业发展最为成熟的长三角地区为研究对象,基于去哪儿网相关民宿数据,采用空间最邻近分析、密度分析等空间分析方法,研究民宿的空间分布格局与特征,并基于逐步回归分析,探讨影响民宿分布的因素,得出以下结论：① 长三角地区民宿呈现高度集聚的状态,整体上表现为多核心分布,并形成一、二、三级组团,密度由核心向外围递减。② 民宿集聚分布在经济较为发达的城市和核心景区周边,具有明显的中心性。③ 基于对经济基本状况、交通状况、人口条件、居民消费能力、旅游市场状况、旅游资源与环境条件等方面共15个影响因素分析,发现单位面积旅游收入、A级景区数量、人口密度、地区国内生产总值四个指标对民宿密度有显著正向影响,其中,影响力单位面积旅游收入>A级景区数量>人口密度>地区国内生产总值。     

辽宁省城市人居环境系统耦合协调度时空格局演变及驱动力研究

人居环境系统内部的耦合协调是保证人居环境均衡发展的基础。基于“人类-居住-支撑-自然-社会”5个子系统,构建人居环境系统耦合协调发展评价指标体系,将2个系统间的容量耦合模型扩展运用到人居环境5个子系统中,综合熵值法、GIS空间分析以及地理探测器对辽宁省2005~2016年人居环境系统耦合协调度的时空演化特征与驱动力进行探讨,阐述人居环境系统内部协调性。研究表明:①2005~2016年辽宁省人居环境系统内部的耦合度与耦合协调度整体呈缓慢浮动上升趋势;②辽宁省人居环境耦合协调度呈分散格局,并且呈现从中间向两侧递减的“屋脊”式格局和“双核结构”;东西方向上,空间演变趋势由倒U型逐渐向一字型演变,南北方向上由斜线型向“L”型演变。③全省出现了中耦合低协调区、中耦合过渡协调区、高耦合低协调区、高耦合过渡协调区、高耦合高协调区5种类型区。④空间分异驱动力主要包括人的需求、经济发展、住房、互联网发展等。     

额河源流采金矿区不同恢复措施对矿区物种多样性和地上生物量的影响

以额河源流采金后废弃矿区为研究对象,于2011—2015年期间,通过采取不同恢复措施从被破坏矿区草地植物多样性和生物量的角度分析植被恢复效果。结果表明：（1）不同恢复措施促使各植物群落的物种数增加了5%～30%,说明采取恢复措施使得矿区生态环境得到了一定程度的恢复。（2）综合植被群落结构、盖度和地上生物量、物种多样性指数分析,措施A5（推平+圈羊）、A4（推平+补水）、A3（推平+覆土+黑加仑）较其他措施恢复效果更为显著。（3）通过对各样地植被丰富度指数（R）、Shannon Wiener指数(H′)、Simpson指数（D）、Pielou (Jsw)指数与地上生物量分别进行回归分析,发现指数曲线拟合关系最好。表明物种多样性与地上生物量均存在较显著的正相关关系(P <0.05)。本研究可为类似矿区的植被恢复与重建提供参考和借鉴。     

基于空间插值的浙江省城市流时空演变特征研究

为了探寻发达省份内城市间相互作用的时空特征,该文以浙江省为样本单元,选取2005、2010年和2015年3个时间截面,采用反距离权重法和空间插值手段,从城市流强度视角展开了实证分析。结果表明：（1） 城市间的联系在不断加强,期间城市流强度值随时间的推移而整体得到提升,空间上由初始的“中心点”通过发展扩散向“中心域”转变,中心城市的辐射带动作用开始发挥成效。（2）结构上呈现出相对稳定的北高南低的分布格局,以杭州市为龙头,宁波为副核心,温州、绍兴、舟山为重要节点的多中心城市网络结构雏形初步形成。（3） 城市流强度的空间分异特征分析明显,但分异程度有了些许的改善,侧面说明空间上由初始的“中心点”通过发展扩散向“中心域”转变的基本观点。最后就浙江省如何加强省内城市间“流”的规模性、区域协调性和可持续性展开了讨论。     

临沂市地质灾害现状及易发程度分区评价

2016年,临沂市地质灾害排查共查明了391处地质灾害隐患点,主要类型为崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、采空塌陷和岩溶塌陷,崩塌数量最多,其次为采空塌陷和岩溶塌陷。地质灾害规模以小型为主。该文详细介绍了临沂市地质环境背景条件,各类地质灾害发育现状及分布特征。在此基础上,采用"地质灾害综合危险性指数法"进行地质灾害易发性评价,运用栅格数据处理方法将临沂市划分成1350个面积相等的单元,对影响地质灾害发育的地质条件、地形地貌条件、气候植被条件、地质灾害隐患点、地质灾害规模、分布密度、活动频次和险情等要素进行量化,根据实际情况对地质灾害易发程度分级进行定性修正,将临沂市地质灾害易发程度划分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区及不易发区4个区。预测了地质灾害发展趋势,划分了地质灾害防治分区,建议完善地质灾害预警预报系统,为临沂市应急管理局的地质灾害应急救援提供地质灾害基础背景资料。     

齐河—禹城地区矽卡岩型铁矿找矿预测地质模型

近年来,山东省齐河—禹城地区矽卡岩型铁矿找矿预测和科学研究工作取得了重大进展。山东省相关地勘单位在对该区地质—地球物理场和成矿规律研究的基础上,对李屯次级磁异常、大张次级磁异常、潘店次级磁异常成矿有利部位进行了异常查证工作;相继发现了"厚度较大、品位较高、分布集中"的矽卡岩型铁矿床,为系统研究该区地质特征、地球物理异常、铁矿成矿规律等提供了资料基础和勘查经验。该文通过对区域地质特征、矿区地质—地球物理特征及铁矿床特征分析,探讨了该区矽卡岩型铁矿的控矿要素及成矿后期构造运动对该区铁矿床的改造作用。在"三位一体"勘查区找矿预测理论的基础上,该次研究工作建立了包括成矿地质背景、成矿地质体、成矿构造、成矿作用特征标志、物探特征等方面的找矿预测地质模型;同时提出了研究区今后铁矿勘查工作中需重点解决的地质问题,以期促进今后相关地区矽卡岩型铁矿勘查工作。     

Three Decades of Sea-Ice Variability in Jiaozhou Bay Revealed by Landsat Observations

In this study, we used Landsat images and meteorological data to examine the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of sea ice in Jiaozhou Bay(JZB) between 1986 and 2016. The results show that JZB is not always covered by sea ice in winter, but in some extreme cases, sea ice has covered more than one-third of the sea area of the bay. Sea ice in JZB has generally formed between January 1 and February 5, primarily along the coast, and gradually expanding to the central area of the bay. Both meteorological and artificial factors have played important roles in modulating the sea ice distribution. We found sea ice coverage to have been strongly correlated with the accumulated freezing-degree days nine days before the occurrence of sea ice(R2 = 0.767). North-northwest surface winds have dominated the freezing period of sea water in the JZB, and wind speed has exerted a more significant influence on the formation of sea ice when the sea ice coverage has been generally small. Additionally, artificial factors began to affect the expansion of sea ice in JZB since 2007. The construction of the Jiao-Zhou-Bay Bridge(JZBB) is believed to have retarded water flow and reduced the tidal prism, thereby leading to the formation of an ice bridge along the JZBB, which effectively prevents the southward expansion of sea ice.     

Predictability of Chinese Summer Extreme Rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant.     

Dynamic changes in lakes in the Hoh Xil region before and after the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake

Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.     

Spatial variation of the relationship between transport accessibility and the level of economic development in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

As an important component of China' transportation systems, for a long time, the insufficient performance of transport in QinghaiTibet Plateau(QTP) was a bottleneck restricting the economic growth and social development in this area. Nevertheless, the implementation of the western development strategy has accelerated the preliminary construction of comprehensive transport network since 2000. Due to the large area and significant geographical heterogeneity, there is a growing need to understand the relationship between transportation and economic development based on the perspective of spatial difference. By using GIS-based raster analysis and Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model, we investigated the spatial-temporal distribution of highway, railway and airport accessibility, respectively, and estimated the correlation and heterogeneity between transport accessibility and the level of economic development. Results revealed that:(1) Transport accessibility in the QTP improved by 53.38% in the past 15 years, which is specifically embodied in the improvement of both highway and railway.(2) Accessibility presented prominent differentiation in the space, increasing from west to east and reducing with the rise of elevation, specifically, the best accessibility area of the highway is below 4000 m above sea level, while the area with an altitude of over 4000 m has the lowest aviation time cost.(3) In general, the long weighted average time cost to critical transport facilities posed significantly negative effect on county economic growth in QTP, more positively, the adverse effect gradually weakened over time.(4) Obvious heterogeneity exists at the influence of different transport accessibility factors on the level of economic development, reflecting both in the horizontal space and altitudinal belt. Therefore, region-specific policies should be addressed for the sustainable development of transport facilities as well as economy in the west mountain areas.