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1.
2.
In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming
at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis
of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step,
‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE
spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of
their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the
direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion
of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s−1, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated
as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’,
we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the
onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8
and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the
relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison
among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method
is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude
of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation
thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency. 相似文献
3.
Based on the δ13C and δ18O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO3 content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages
of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate
isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental
changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ18O, δ13C and CaCO3 appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ18O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ13C, pollen and CaCO3 analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred
at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P.,
10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature
of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P.
−5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid
area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism
of palaeoclimatic changes. 相似文献
4.
北部湾北部海上油田的开发工作始于50年代,60~70年代作了大量地质工作。改革开放后,油气勘查取得突破性进展。累计发现油气构造6个,含油面积超过40km2,石油地质储量约4亿t,已开发油田2个,揭开我国南方油气资源开发序幕 相似文献
5.
本文讨论了彗星中尘埃粒子的充电机制 ,带电特性和平衡电势的变化规律 ,分析了彗星尘埃的破碎特性和临界半径 ,得出了很有意义的结果 相似文献
6.
从地形地貌特征、重磁地球物理场、深部构造与断裂构造以及地震活动、震源机制等多方面论述北东东向构造是南海北缘的主要活动构造。对于长期以来认为新华夏系北东向构造是该区主要活动构造的观点来说,这是一种新的学术思想。 相似文献
7.
8.
在文献」1「4 基础上,根据近年文选址实践中提出的问题,先进一步讨论了大气相干直径和时间的的物理和意义,然后强调了自由大气湍流的天文成像效应及选址中进行研究和测量的重要性。最后对差分像运动方法测量视宁度的定标和系统误差等问题作了分析。 相似文献
9.
碳酸盐岩裂缝与岩溶作用研究 总被引:12,自引:2,他引:10
从构造与非构造作用角度出发,突出研究断层对裂缝的控制作用、断裂与岩溶的关系和裂缝与岩溶之间的关系,揭示碳酸盐岩裂缝与岩溶的发育规律。研究表明:构造裂缝为岩溶发育提供岩溶作用进行的有利通道,非构造裂缝则可以加速溶蚀作用的进行,促进岩溶的发育;裂缝与岩溶之间的关系始终是相辅相成、相互促进的关系。 相似文献
10.
在-25~ 25 ℃环境温度条件下, 采用水中冻融和空气中冻融两种方式, 经过50次冻融循环后, 在15 ℃、 0 ℃、 -10 ℃、 -20 ℃和-35 ℃工况下对土工格栅试样进行了拉伸性能的试验研究, 获得了聚乙烯塑料土工格栅的极限承载力、最大延伸率、 不同延伸率对应的应力值等数据. 试验结果表明, 聚乙烯塑料土工格栅在低温时抗拉性能明显提高, 从 15 ℃降至-35 ℃时, 5%延伸率对应的抗拉强度提高107%, 极限承载力提高19%. 同时, 聚乙烯塑料土工格栅极限延伸率随温度降低呈线形关系降低, 从 15 ℃降至-35 ℃时, 极限延伸率降低80%. 相似文献