南方大到暴雪的一种预报方法

对构成南方大到暴雪的两个特征量：降水量和积雪深度用多种预报方法从晴雨、降水性质、降水量级、冰冻及积雪厚度等不同角度分别进行预报，然后通过推理组合，最终建立暴雪预报方法。该方法除了可以得出有无大到暴雪的预报结果外，还可以得到多种中间预报结果，从而适应预报服务的多种需要。在近３年的实际使用中获得了很好的效果。     

Identification of Convective and Stratiform Clouds Based on the Improved DBSCAN Clustering Algorithm

A convective and stratiform cloud classification method for weather radar is proposed based on the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm. To identify convective and stratiform clouds in different developmental phases, two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) models are proposed by applying reflectivity factors at 0.5° and at 0.5°, 1.5°, and 2.4° elevation angles, respectively. According to the thresholds of the algorithm, which include echo intensity, the echo top height of 35 dBZ (ET), density threshold, and ε neighborhood, cloud clusters can be marked into four types: deep-convective cloud (DCC), shallow-convective cloud (SCC), hybrid convective-stratiform cloud (HCS), and stratiform cloud (SFC) types. Each cloud cluster type is further identified as a core area and boundary area, which can provide more abundant cloud structure information. The algorithm is verified using the volume scan data observed with new-generation S-band weather radars in Nanjing, Xuzhou, and Qingdao. The results show that cloud clusters can be intuitively identified as core and boundary points, which change in area continuously during the process of convective evolution, by the improved DBSCAN algorithm. Therefore, the occurrence and disappearance of convective weather can be estimated in advance by observing the changes of the classification. Because density thresholds are different and multiple elevations are utilized in the 3D model, the identified echo types and areas are dissimilar between the 2D and 3D models. The 3D model identifies larger convective and stratiform clouds than the 2D model. However, the developing convective clouds of small areas at lower heights cannot be identified with the 3D model because they are covered by thick stratiform clouds. In addition, the 3D model can avoid the influence of the melting layer and better suggest convective clouds in the developmental stage.     

雷达拼图资料上中尺度对流系统的跟踪与预报

在中尺度对流系统(Mesoscale Convective Systems,MCSs)自动识别基础上,利用相关法跟踪雷达回波(Tracking Radar Echoes by Cross-correlation,TREC)和面积重叠法完成新的跟踪预报方法.新方法利用TREC得到MCSs移动矢量,利用该矢量外推对应MCSs雷达回波.根据外推回波与相应回波实况,采用面积重叠法完成跟踪,同时利用移动矢量完成预报.采用4次强天气过程对算法进行检验,分析结果表明:(1)新方法能够有效实现MCSs跟踪与预报;(2)新方法得到MCSs移动速度相对稳定,不因为系统合并、分裂和生消出现速度大幅度波动现象,有效减小预报误差,6～60 min预报误差相对于原方法减小20％以上;(3)新方法虽然能提取得到较为稳定的系统移动速度,但不能得到系统的传播速度.原方法能得到系统的移动速度和传播速度合成,但提取速度不稳定,容易受到质心偏移的影响,预报误差较大.新方法在系统消亡期提取移动速度不稳定,导致跟踪丢失现象的发生,而原方法在系统合并与分裂时易出现跟踪丢失现象.     

山西省太阳能资源时空分布特征及利用潜力评估

按照中国气象局发布的太阳能资源评估方法,利用山西省近30 a 3个辐射观测站的太阳总辐射资料和105个站的日照资料,采用气候学方法计算了山西省的太阳总辐射,在分析山西省太阳总辐射的空间分布和时间演变特征的基础上,计算了山西省太阳能资源的各种参数,对区域太阳能资源潜力进行了客观评估。结果表明山西省太阳能资源储备丰富、稳定、可开发利用日数较多,特别是山西北部地区,尤其适合进行太阳能资源开发利用。     

多旋翼无人机群自主探测大气边界层气象要素的模式分析

深入研究大气边界层气象现象的发生、发展、消散机制,需要获取三维同步气象要素数据,而现有探测技术与手段难以提供.因此,提出利用多旋翼无人机群进行自主探测大气边界层气象要素的探测模式,并就探测模式的背景与意义、特点与优势、流程与可行性,以及需要进一步研究的相关科学问题进行了分析,认为多旋翼无人机群自主探测大气边界层气象要素的探测模式针对性、灵活性、机动性、可操作性强,并具有自主动态同步探测、自主智能追踪探测等功能.     

农业气象灾害影响评估和防御技术研究进展

为解决我国16亿人口的食物安全问题，最根本的措施是进行一次新的农业科技革命，依靠科技创新使农业生产力水平实现质的飞跃，开展农业气象灾害的影响评估和防御技术研究，提高其技术水平，便是一项必不可少的措施之一。为此，通过对农业气象灾害影响评估的分析，找出其相应防御技术和措施。     

西北太平洋海域风浪、涌浪、混合浪波浪能资源特征

用ECMWF的ERA-40海浪再分析资料,应用波浪能流密度计算方法,对西北太平洋海域的风浪能、涌浪能、混合浪能展开研究。结果表明:(1)波浪能流密度呈现出显著季节性差异。混合浪能流密度表现为冬高夏低;春、夏、秋季的涌浪能流密度明显大于风浪能流密度,冬季相反;(2)混合浪能流密度的大值区主要分布于阿留申群岛附近海域,高值中心可达60 kW/m以上;近海的大值区主要分布于琉球群岛—巴士海峡—传统的南海大风区一带,年平均值在4 kW/m以上,南海北部可达12 kW/m以上;(3)黄渤海的涌浪和混合浪能流密度峰值出现在8—9月,波谷出现在6月。风浪能流密度峰值出现在11月—次年3月,波谷出现在6—8月,均呈现双峰型月变化特征。东海、南海北部、南海中南部海域能流密度的月变化特征相似,都为双峰型,12月—次年4月的能流密度整体较高,波峰出现在12月,波谷出现在5—7月;(4)2 kW/m以上混合浪能流密度出现的频率较高,近海低于大洋;(5)0.5 m以上有效波高出现的频率都非常高,中国近海稍低于大洋;(6)涌浪能流密度的稳定性明显好于风浪能流密度;大洋的能流密度稳定性明显强于近岸。1月份能流密度的稳定性最好,4月和7月次之,10月的稳定性最差。     

Nonlocal period parameters of frequency content characterization for near-fault ground motions

This paper focuses on the frequency property analysis of near-fault ground motions with and without distinct pulses, separately from the Chi-Chi and Northridge earthquakes. Ten scalar period parameters of ground motions, especially several nonlocal period parameters, are considered. Two new nonlocal parameters, namely the mean period of Hilbert marginal spectrum (T_mh) and the improved characteristic period (T_gi), are suggested. Moreover, comprehensive comparison and analysis indicate that T_mh, T_gi and T_avg (average spectral period) can distinguish the low-frequency components of near-fault ground motions; T_m (mean period of Fourier amplitude spectrum) and T_o (smoothed spectral predominant period) represent the moderate- and high-frequency components, respectively. The variance coefficient of predominant instantaneous frequency of Hilbert spectrum (H_cov) can be regarded as an alternative index to measure the non-stationary degree of near-fault ground motions. Finally, the velocity pulses and earthquake magnitude remarkably affect the frequency parameters of near-fault ground motions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A climatological northern boundary index for the East Asian summer monsoon and its interannual variability

A long-term perspective on the spatial variation of the northern boundary of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and the related physical mechanisms is important for understanding past climate change in Asia and for predicting future changes. However, most of the meteorological definitions of the EASM northern boundary do not correspond well to the actual geographical environment, which is problematic for paleoclimatic research. Here, we use monthly CMAP and GPCP precipitation data to define a new EASM northern boundary index by using the concept of the global monsoon, which is readily applicable to paleoclimatic research. The results show that the distribution of the 2 mm day~(-1) precipitation isoline(i.e., 300 mm precipitation)has a good relationship with the spatial distribution of modern land cover types, the transitional climate zone and the potential natural vegetation types, in China. The locations of the precipitation isolines also correspond well to the locations of major shifts in wind direction. These results suggest that the 2 mm day~(-1) isoline has a clear physical significance since the climatic, ecological,and geographical boundary can be used as the northern boundary index of the EASM(which we call the climatological northern boundary index). The index depicts the northeast-southwest orientation of the climatological(1981-2010) EASM northern boundary, along the eastern part of the Qilian Mountains-southern foothills of the Helan Mountains-Daqing Mountains-western margin of the Greater Khingan Range, from west to east across Northwest and Northeast China. The interannual change of the EASM northern boundary from 1980 to 2015 covers the central part of Gansu, the northern part of Ningxia, the eastern part of Inner Mongolia and the northeastern region in China. It can extend northward to the border between China and Mongolia and retreat southward to Shangdong-central Henan. There is a 200-700 km fluctuation range of the interannual EASM northern boundaries around the locations of the climatological northern boundary. In addition, the spatial variation of the interannual EASM northern boundaries gradually increases from west to east, whereas the trend of north-south fluctuations maintains a roughly consistent location in different regions.     

灾害性天气预警信息即时编发系统

为了减少灾害天气预警信息编发过程中的失误，提高工作效率，以Excel2003作为开发平台，利用其函数功能和VB技术，开发灾害天气预警信息即时编辑发布系统，以简便操作，自动迅速生成规范、通俗、实用的预警信息产品，并实现产品自动上网发布。