气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究

本研究以动态植被模型LPJ 为主要工具,以区域气候模式工具PRECIS 产生的A2、B2和A1B情景气候数据为输入,模拟了未来气候变化下中国自然生态系统的变化状况,应用脆弱性评价模型,评估中国自然生态系统响应未来气候变化的脆弱性。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下中国东部地区脆弱程度呈上升趋势,西部地区呈下降趋势,但总体上,中国自然生态系统的脆弱性格局没有大的变化,仍呈现西高东低、北高南低的特点。受气候变化影响严重的地区是东北和华北地区,而青藏高原区南部和西北干旱区受气候变化影响,脆弱程度明显减轻。气候变化情景下的近期气候变化对我国生态系统的影响不大,但中、远期气候变化对生态系统的负面影响较大,特别是在自然条件相对较好的东部地区,脆弱区面积增加较多。     

Coal facies evolution of the main minable coal-bed in the Heidaigou Mine, Jungar Coalfield, Inner Mongolia, northern China

The No. 6 Coal-bed from the Heidaigou Mine, Jungar Coalfield, Inner Mongolia is a super-large Ga deposit. The dominant carrier of Ga is boehmite in coal. The study of coal facies may provide genetic enrichment information of Ga and its carrier (boehmite) in the Ga deposit. On the basis of study on coal petrology and mineralogy, it was found that the No. 6 Coal-bed from the Heidaigou Mine of Jungar was enriched in inertinites and the microlitho-types were dominated by clarodurite. The maceral morphological features and association indicate that the coal-bed was formed in a dry sedimentary environment or in a periodic dry sedimentary environment caused by the alternating variations of groundwater level. The optimum conditions for the enrichment of Ga and its particular carrier (boehmite) were dominated by four transitional conditions (1) the upper delta plain which was the transitional zone between alluvial and lower delta plains, (2) the transitional zone between the dry and wet forest swamps, being slightly apt to the dry one, (3) the transitional tree density between the thick and loose ones, and (4) the low moor that was the transitional zone between two high moors during peat accumulation.     

青海南部金沙江缝合带二叠纪硅质岩地球化学特征及沉积环境

青海省南部扎河地区金沙江缝合带中出露的通天河蛇绿混杂岩由不同时代、不同岩性的地层断片组成.对其中的二叠纪硅质岩进行地球化学研究后发现,该地区的硅质岩SiO2含量在71.56%~88.24%之间,Al/(Al+Fe+Mn)平均值为0.64,MnO/TiO2平均值为0.74,ΣREE平均为138.51×10-6,稀土元素配分曲线呈平坦型,δCe为0.97~1.49,平均为1.14,无明显异常;(La/Yb)N平均值为1.85,(La/Ce)N平均值为1.08,与已知大地构造背景的硅质岩地球化学特征对比,表明其形成环境为陆间洋盆环境.因此,金沙江带不能作为古特提斯域的主缝合带.     

牙形石微量元素对生物绝灭事件的响应: 以二叠-三叠系全球层型剖面第一幕绝灭事件为例

首次系统地利用浙江长兴煤山剖面牙形石化石, 依托中国地质大学(武汉) 地质过程与矿产资源国家重点实验室激光剥蚀等离子体质谱仪(LA-ICP-MS) 获取牙形石微区原位元素含量信息.结果显示, 牙形石的Ce异常和稀土总量出现快速的波动, 它们均反映出P/T之交环境(氧化-还原、生态条件等) 的不稳定性.这些微量元素特征可以很好地与古海洋环境和生物绝灭事件耦合.这一研究将为系统探索全球古生代末生物大灭绝及其后生物复苏的过程、时限与古海洋化学及古生态变化性质等问题的研究提供新的途径, 并有望对这些重要科学问题提供有效的制约.      

A STUDY ON VARIABLE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION USING DOPPLER RADAR DATA

With the pros and cons of the traditional optimization and probability pairing methods thoroughly considered, an improved optimal pairing window probability technique is developed using a dynamic relationship between the base reflectivity Z observed by radar and real time precipitation I by rain gauge. Then, the Doppler radar observations of base reflectivity for typhoons Haitang and Matsa in Wenzhou are employed to establish various Z-I relationships, which are subsequently used to estimate hourly precipitation of the two typhoons. Such estimations are calibrated by variational techniques. The results show that there exist significant differences in the Z-I relationships for the typhoons, leading to different typhoon precipitation efficiencies. The typhoon precipitation estimated by applying radar base reflectivity is capable of exhibiting clearly the spiral rain belts and mesoscale cells, and well matches the observed rainfall. Error statistical analyses indicate that the estimated typhoon precipitation is better with variational calibration than the one without. The variational calibration technique is able to maintain the characteristics of the distribution of radar-estimated typhoon precipitation, and to significantly reduce the error of the estimated precipitation in comparison with the observed rainfall.     

Analytic Solution of Interaction Between Surface Waves and Floating Elastic Plates with Elastic End-Restraints

Based on the dynamic theories of water waves and Mindlin plates,the analytic solution of interaction between surface waves and two-dimensional floating elastic plates with edge-restraint is constructed by use of the Wiener-Hopf technique.Firstly,without regard for elastic edge restraint,the wave-induced responses of elastic floating plate analyzed by the present method are in good agreement with the results from literature and experimental results.Therefore,it can be shown that the present method is valid.Secondly,three end-restraint cases(i.e.,the left-end elastic restraints,the both-end elastic restraints,and the right-end elastic restraints)are proposed to reduce the vibration of floating plates,in which the spring is used to connect the sea bottom and the floating plate's left(or right)edge.The relations between the spring stiffness and the parameters of wave-induced responses of floating plates are discussed.Moreover,the effective method to reduce the vibration of floating elastic plates can be obtained through comparison.     

郑州市区环境空气污染趋势分析

以2003年郑州市环境空气污染的主要监测指标为依据,分析了郑州市空气污染现状,并根据1994~2003年10年来的监测数据,对空气污染特征和污染趋势进行了分析,结论是:郑州市空气污染在近10年呈下降趋势。     

多普勒雷达图像逆风区的自动监测识别

在多普勒雷达降水回波径向速度场中及时准确地发现逆风区,对灾害天气预报预警具有重要意义.根据逆风区在雷达径向速度图中的物理图像特征,采用数字图像处理和分析方法实现了逆风区自动监测识别.首先,以雷达图像色标为依据,采用阈值法分别获取正、负速度区域二值图像,再对2幅图像分别进行形态学运算,然后将上述4幅图像做交叉逻辑运算,得到逆风区监测识别结果和相关参数.通过在2005-2011年长沙雷达站47幅根据实况进行人工标注后的多普勒雷达径向速度图像上进行实验,表明该方法对逆风区可以进行快速准确识别,与人工标注结果比较准确率可达89%,满足实际应用需要.     

2012年9月7日彝良5.7、5.6级地震预测及科学依据

通过分析彝良地震前地震预测意见和预测依据,认为:彝良地震前云南最主要的地震活动特征是境内6级以上地震平静时间接近或超过20世纪以来的极限时间,中等地震丛集过程中,缺少6级地震活动;宁蒗地震的窗口意义和前兆异常数量持续增加是判断地震短期危险性的主要依据;4级地震密集活动区为地点判断提供线索。彝良地震与缅甸地震同时孕育的复杂性,增加了地震预测的难度,也丰富了我们对地震孕育过程的认识。     

内蒙古额济纳旗黑大山锑矿化带化探异常特征及其找矿潜力评价

在内蒙古额济纳旗黑大山地区地处北山锑矿成矿远景区,成矿地质条件十分有利,通过对该区开展区域化探工作,发现了规模较大的以Sb、As为主的综合化探异常,再辅以1:1万的地质、化探综合剖面测量及槽探工程揭露,找到2个锑矿化带(Ⅰ号、Ⅱ号矿化带).对该区找矿潜力进行评价,认为该区具有较大的找矿潜力.