张北6.2级地震前北京地下水位井网动态异常初析

１９９８年１月１０日张北６．２级地震前,北京地下水位观测井网部分并孔观测到一组由趋势到短临前兆异常,本文较详细地阐述这些异常点的分布及不同阶段的异常表现特征和发展过程,显示出孕震过程中震源区应力应变积累过程与水位动态的内在联系,给出不少有益的启示,对地震预报前兆研究有一定的参考价值。     

A Simulation Study on the Evolution of Groundwater Circulation Systems in Cenozoic Basins of Northern China

Three Cenozoic basins-the Qaidam basin, the Weihe graben-type basin and the North China plain-which are different in climatic conditions, geological settings and run-off types, are selected for the study. Based on an analysis of background information of the transect along the middle-latitude region, studies of groundwater dynamics, geochemistry, simulation of water circulation of the main elements as well as isotopic chronology, the information on global changes is collected, the formation of groundwater circulation systems and their evolution under stacked impacts of natural conditions and human activities are discussed, and a correlation is made between the evolutionary features of the above systems in these basins since 25 ka B.P. All these have laid a good foundation for further generalizing the evolutionary model of land water in northern China.     

浅论马鞍山地区的膨胀土

膨胀土由于粘土矿物含量较多,在一定气候条件下其体积随含水量的增加而膨胀,随含水一的减少而收缩,以膨胀土为地基的低层建筑物常常成群开裂,笔者首次报道了马鞍山地区的膨胀土,并对该区膨胀土的分布,成因,评价方法和防治措施等提出了初步看法。     

复杂地层构造的地震模拟

复杂地层构造的地震模拟,是地震勘探理论的重要问题。本文提出了一个模拟系统:用有限元素表示复杂地层构造,在此基础上应用射线轨迹法计算二维合成记录,从而得到复杂地层构造的理论剖面。这个系统可以用来模拟构造和岩性,为解释人员提供理论依据。 作者研制了适用于任意复杂地层构造计算的通用程序,并用以计算了某测线的一批模型,所得合成剖面由电视加以显示,最后对结果作了简单的分析讨论。     

黄长石的晶体形态研究

黄长石族矿物广泛分布在各种工艺岩石,尤其是高炉渣中,它在高炉渣中的分布量可与长石类矿物在天然岩石中的情况相比拟。黄长石有时也出现在富钙的碱性岩中,因此,黄长石的研究对岩石学和工艺岩石学,都具有一定的意义。     

西湖凹陷西次凹古近系花港组—平湖组深层油气成藏过程

西湖凹陷西次凹古近系花港组和平湖组深层油气资源丰富，是东海陆架盆地勘探开发新领域，受储层差异致密化影响，油气成藏机理复杂。为了厘清西次凹深层油气成藏过程，本文通过流体包裹体岩相学特征、显微测温、激光拉曼光谱、包裹体所含油气地球化学等实验分析，结合构造演化、地层埋藏史、热史等，开展了系统的储层特征、油气成藏期次、成藏过程研究。结果表明，花港组深层（>4000 m）和平湖组储层均已致密化，溶蚀孔隙是主要的储集孔隙类型；花港组和平湖组均发育两期油气包裹体，早期含油包裹体较多，晚期以天然气包裹体为主，成藏时间分别为龙井运动期和冲绳运动期，以晚期天然气成藏最为关键。包裹体中油气地球化学特征类似，反映生烃母质以高等植物生源为主，低等生物为辅，与平湖组煤系烃源岩特征一致。冲绳运动叠加平湖组生气增压是晚期天然气成藏的主要动力，此时H10段及以上储层未致密化。根据储层致密化与成藏时序匹配关系可将西次凹M构造深层油气藏类型划分为常规型、先成藏后致密型、先致密后成藏型和边成藏边致密型4种。本文成果可为研究区下一步致密砂岩气的勘探开发部署提供重要的理论依据。     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

棉铃虫发生发展与气候条件的关系研究进展

棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera 属鳞翅目夜蛾科，是一种世界性的重大害虫，在世界各地均有分布。因其具有远距离迁飞，繁殖力强等特点，条件适宜时常大面积暴发成灾，给农业生产带来较大损失。摸清棉铃虫生活习性、种群变化规律是棉铃虫防治的前提条件。由于棉铃虫是变温昆虫，气候条件对其生长发育、成灾机制等产生极大影响。因此，本文系统综述了气候变暖对棉铃虫影响的研究进展，包括棉铃虫生长发育、体色变化、繁殖、滞育、飞行、越冬、与作物的互作关系等方面，并对未来研究重点进行了展望。以期对棉铃虫的综合治理提供理论依据。     

Simulations for multi-object spectrograph planet surveys

Radial velocity surveys for extrasolar planets generally require substantial amounts of large telescope time in order to monitor a sufficient number of stars. Two of the aspects which can limit such surveys are the single-object capabilities of the spectrograph, and an inefficient observing strategy for a given observing window. In addition, the detection rate of extrasolar planets using the radial velocity method has thus far been relatively linear with time. With the development of various multi-object Doppler survey instruments, there is growing potential to dramatically increase the detection rate using the Doppler method. Several of these instruments have already begun usage in large-scale surveys for extrasolar planets, such as Fibre Large Array Multi Element Spectrograph (FLAMES) on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and Keck Exoplanet Tracker (ET) on the Sloan 2.5-m wide-field telescope.
In order to plan an effective observing strategy for such a program, one must examine the expected results based on a given observing window and target selection. We present simulations of the expected results from a generic multi-object survey based on calculated noise models and sensitivity for the instrument and the known distribution of exoplanetary system parameters. We have developed code for automatically sifting and fitting the planet candidates produced by the survey to allow for fast follow-up observations to be conducted. The techniques presented here may be applied to a wide range of multi-object planet surveys.     

Coupled surface water–groundwater model and its application in the arid Shiyang River basin,China

The planning and management of water resources in the Shiyang River basin, China require a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream use on water supply reliabilities and improving many environment‐related problems such as soil desertification induced by recent water‐related human activities. A coupled model, integrating rule‐based lumped surface water model and distributed three‐dimensional groundwater flow model, has been established to investigate surface water and groundwater management scenarios that may be designed to restore the deteriorated ecological environment of the downstream portion of the Shiyang River basin. More than 66% of the water level among 24 observation wells have simulation error less than 1·0 m. The overall trend of the temporal changes of simulated and observed surface runoff at the Caiqi gauging station remains almost the same. The calibration was considered satisfactory. Initial frameworks for water allocation, including agricultural water‐saving projects, water diversion within the basin and inter‐basin water transfer, reducing agricultural irrigation area and surface water use instead of groundwater exploitation at the downstream were figured out that would provide a rational use of water resources throughout the whole basin. Sixteen scenarios were modelled to find out the most appropriate management strategies. The results showed that in the two selected management options, the groundwater budget at the Minqin basin was about 1·4 × 10⁸ m³/a and the ecological environment would be improved significantly, but the deficit existed at the Wuwei basin and the number was about 0·8 × 10⁸ m³/a. Water demand for domestic, industry and urban green area would be met in the next 30 years, but the water shortage for meeting the demand of agricultural water use in the Shiyang River basin was about 2·2 × 10⁸ m³/a. It is suggested that more inter‐basin water transfer should be required to obtain sustainable water resource use in the Shiyang River basin. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.