Determination of lower and upper bounds of predicted production from history-matched models

We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed production data through adjusting the grid block permeability values of the model. 2) performing two optimization exercises to minimize and maximize an economic objective over the remaining field life, for a fixed production strategy, by manipulating the same grid block permeabilities, however without significantly changing the mismatch obtained under step 1. This is accomplished through a hierarchical optimization procedure that limits the solution space of a secondary optimization problem to the (approximate) null space of the primary optimization problem. We applied this procedure to two different reservoir models. We performed a history match based on synthetic data, starting from a uniform prior and using a gradient-based minimization procedure. After history matching, minimization and maximization of the net present value (NPV), using a fixed control strategy, were executed as secondary optimization problems by changing the model parameters while staying close to the null space of the primary optimization problem. In other words, we optimized the secondary objective functions, while requiring that optimality of the primary objective (a good history match) was preserved. This method therefore provides a way to quantify the economic consequences of the well-known problem that history matching is a strongly ill-posed problem. We also investigated how this method can be used as a means to assess the cost-effectiveness of acquiring different data types to reduce the uncertainty in the expected NPV.     

Well placement optimization subject to realistic field development constraints

This work considers the well placement problem in reservoir management and field development optimization. In particular, it emphasizes embedding realistic and practical constraints into a mathematical optimization formulation. Such constraints are a prerequisite for the wider use of mathematical optimization techniques in well placement problems, since constraints are a way to incorporate reservoir engineering knowledge into the problem formulation. There are important design limitations that are used by the field development team when treating the well placement problem, and these limitations need to be articulated and eventually formalized within the problem before conducting the search for optimal well placements. In addition, these design limitations may be explicit or implicit. In this work, various design limitations pertaining to well locations have been developed in close collaboration with a field operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Moreover, this work focuses on developing constraint-handling capability to enforce these various considerations during optimization. In particular, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied to optimize for the well locations, and various practical well placement constraints are incorporated into the PSO algorithm using two different constraint-handling techniques: a decoder procedure and the penalty method. The decoder procedure maps the feasible search space onto a cube and has the advantage of not requiring parameter tuning. The penalty method converts the constrained optimization problem into an unconstrained one by introducing an additional term, which is called a penalty function, to the objective function. In contrast to the penalty method, only feasible solutions are evaluated in the decoder method. Through numerical simulations, a comparison between the penalty method and the decoder technique is performed for two cases. We show that the decoder technique can easily be implemented for the well placement problem, and furthermore, that it performs better than the penalty method in most of the cases.     

Heat tracing to examine seasonal groundwater flow beneath a low-gradient stream in rural central Illinois,USA

The thermal profile of a streambed is affected by a number of factors including: temperatures of stream water and groundwater, hydraulic conductivity, thermal conductivity, heat capacity of the streambed, and the geometry of hyporheic flow paths. Changes in these parameters over time cause changes in thermal profiles. In this study, temperature data were collected at depths of 30, 60, 90 and 150 cm at six streambed wells 5 m apart along the thalweg of Little Kickapoo Creek, in rural central Illinois, USA. This is a third-order low-gradient baseflow-fed stream. A positive temperature gradient with inflection at 90-cm depth was observed during the summer period. A negative temperature gradient with inflection at 30 cm was observed during the winter period, which suggests greater influence of stream-water temperatures in the substrate during the summer. Thermal models of the streambed were built using VS2DHI to simulate the thermal profiles observed in the field. Comparison of the parameters along with analysis of temperature envelopes and Peclet numbers suggested greater upwelling and stability in temperatures during the winter than during the summer. Upwelling was more pronounced in the downstream reach of the pool in the riffle and pool sequence.     

The Influence of Bioturbation on Iron and Sulphur Cycling in Marine Sediments: A Model Analysis

The geochemical cycles of iron and sulphur in marine sediments are strongly intertwined and give rise to a complex network of redox and precipitation reactions. Bioturbation refers to all modes of transport of particles and solutes induced by larger organisms, and in the present-day seafloor, bioturbation is one of the most important factors controlling the biogeochemical cycling of iron and sulphur. To better understand how bioturbation controls Fe and S cycling, we developed reactive transport model of a coastal sediment impacted by faunal activity. Subsequently, we performed a model sensitivity analysis, separately investigating the two different transport modes of bioturbation, i.e. bio-mixing (solid particle transport) and bio-irrigation (enhanced solute transport). This analysis reveals that bio-mixing and bio-irrigation have distinct—and largely opposing effects on both the iron and sulphur cycles. Bio-mixing enhances transport between the oxic and suboxic zones, thus promoting the reduction of oxidised species (e.g. iron oxyhydroxides) and the oxidation of reduced species (e.g. iron sulphides). Through the re-oxidation of iron sulphides, bio-mixing strongly enhances the recycling of Fe and S between their reduced and oxidised states. Bio-irrigation on the other hand removes reduced solutes, i.e. ferrous iron and free sulphide, from the sediment pore water. These reduced species are then reoxidised in the overlying water and not recycled within the sediment column, which leads to a decrease in Fe and S recycling. Overall, our results demonstrate that the ecology of the macrofauna (inducing bio-mixing or bio-irrigation, or both) matters when assessing their impact on sediment geochemistry. This finding seems particularly relevant for sedimentary cycling across Cambrian transition, when benthic fauna started colonizing and reworking the seafloor.     

Recycling of Organic Matter in the Sediments of Santa Monica Basin,California Borderland

Geochemical and isotopic data for the uppermost 1.2 m of the sediments of the central Santa Monica Basin plain were examined to better understand organic matter deposition and recycling at this site. Isotopic signatures (Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C) of methane (CH₄) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) indicate the occurrence of anaerobic oxidation of CH₄ that is fueled by CH₄ supplied from a relict reservoir that is decoupled from local organic carbon (C_org) degradation and methanogenesis. This finding was corroborated by a flux budget of pore-water solutes across the basal horizon of the profile. Together these results provide a plausible explanation for the anomalously low ratio between alkalinity production and sulfate consumption reported for these sediments over two decades ago. Shifts in Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C signatures of C_org have previously been reported across the 20-cm depth horizon for this site and attributed to a transition from oxic to anoxic bottom water that occurred ~350 years BP. However, we show that this horizon also coincides with a boundary between the base of a hemipelagic mud section and the top of a turbidite interval, complicating the interpretation of organic geochemical data across this boundary. Radiocarbon signatures of DIC diffusing upward into surface sediments indicate that remineralization at depth is supported by relatively ¹⁴C-enriched C_org within the sedimentary matrix. While the exact nature of this C_org is unclear, possible sources are hemipelagic mud sections that were buried rapidly under thick turbidites, and ¹⁴C-rich moieties dispersed within C_org-poor turbidite sections.     

Influence of Mussel Culture on the Vertical Export of Phytoplankton Carbon in a Coastal Upwelling Embayment (Ría de Vigo,NW Iberia)

The goal of this paper is to find out whether suspended mussel culture affects the vertical fluxes of biogenic particles in the Ría de Vigo on a seasonal scale. With this aim, vertical fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC) and the magnitude and composition of vertical export of phytoplankton carbon (Cphyto) collected in sediment traps were examined by comparing data obtained inside a mussel farming area (RaS) with those found at a reference station (ReS) not affected by mussels. Our results indicate that mussel farming has a strong impact on sedimentation fluxes under the rafts, not only increasing POC flux but also altering the magnitude and composition of Cphyto fluxes. Average POC flux at RaS (2564?±?1936 mg m^?2 day^?1) was four times higher than at ReS (731?±?276 mg m^?2 day^?1), and much of this increase was due to biodeposit fluxes (Cbiodep) which accounted for large proportion of POC flux (35–60 %). Indeed, because of this high Cbiodep flux, only a small proportion of the POC flux was due to Cphyto flux (3–12 %). At the same time, we observed an increased sedimentation of phytoplankton cells at RaS that could be explained by a combination of mechanisms: less energetic hydrodynamic conditions under mussel rafts, ballast effect by sinking mussel feces, and diatom aggregates. Moreover, mussel farming also altered the quality of the Cphyto flux by removing part of the predatory pressure of zooplankton and thus matching diatom composition in water column and sediment traps.     

Sediment Suspension and Deposition Across Restored Oyster Reefs of Varying Orientation to Flow: Implications for Restoration

The eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, is a prominent ecosystem engineer, whose reefs exhibit strikingly consistent morphologies at multiple spatial scales throughout its North American range. These distinct morphologies are thought to form by interactions of nascent reef structures with hydrodynamics. We carried out two field studies to determine if historical reef configurations applied in a restoration context would improve reef persistence and restoration outcomes. We collected seabed and water column observations across constructed reefs of three orientations representative of those found historically throughout the oyster’s range: parallel or perpendicular to tidal currents or circular. Areas adjacent to reefs were sites of fine sediment trapping, with lower flow velocities, evidence of particle settling, and more fine sediments on the seabed relative to off-reef reference sites. The water column above the reef crest exhibited higher acoustic backscatter, higher flow velocities, and larger particles in suspension, consistent with local erosion of flocculated fine sediment from the reef crest. Perpendicular reefs produced conditions that were more conducive to reef persistence and improved oyster performance, including high flow velocities and enhanced resuspension of sediments from the reef, compared to parallel or circular reefs. Particle trapping in areas between reefs has the potential to inhibit reef growth between existing reef structures, providing support for hypotheses of landscape-scale reef pattern formation. Oyster reef restoration efforts can benefit from this improved understanding of biophysical interactions arising from reef orientation that contribute to sediment dynamics on constructed oyster reefs.     

Habitat Restoration from an Ecosystem Goods and Services Perspective: Application of a Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Model

Estuarine ecosystems provide many services to humans, but these ecosystems are also under pressure from human development, which has led to large investments in habitat protection and restoration. Restoration in estuaries is typically focused on emergent and submerged vegetation with the goal of achieving target areal coverage based on historic conditions. Such restoration targets assume no spatial heterogeneity in habitat value and bypass the functional target of restoring or maintaining delivery of ecosystem goods and services (EGS). We have developed a spatially explicit individual-based behavioral model intended to explore the functional role of habitat restoration on EGS delivery in an index system (Tampa Bay, FL) and for an index EGS (recreational fishing). Model scenarios are based on interaction of inter-annual differences in salinity/temperature patterns (wet, dry, average) with hindcasted “increases” in coverage and distribution of seagrass. Model predictions indicated that the effect of seagrass restoration to historic (1950s) levels on both fish and fishery production is dependent on salinity and temperature. This dependence is based on predicted fish response both to habitat changes and the effective spatial scale of different habitat components. Overall, average salinity/temperature conditions facilitated the highest positive functional response to seagrass restoration with extreme wet/dry years yielding lower or even negative functional responses, but these responses were localized and not homogenous about the estuary. The results of this study provide a methodology for using functional targets in restoration planning and highlight the importance of considering the entire habitat mosaic in valuing restored habitat from an EGS perspective.     

Tectonic Subsidence of California Estuaries Increases Forecasts of Relative Sea-Level Rise

Even along the generally uplifting coast of the Pacific US, local geologic structures can cause subsidence. In this study, we quantify Holocene-averaged subsidence rates in four estuaries (Carpinteria Slough, Goleta Slough, Campus Lagoon, and Morro Bay) along the southern and central California coast by comparing radiocarbon-dated estuarine material to a regional sea-level curve. Holocene-averaged rates of vertical motion range from subsidence of 1.4?±?2.4, 1.2±0.4, and 0.4?±?0.3 mm/year in Morro Bay, Carpinteria Slough, and Goleta Slough, respectively, to possible uplift in Campus Lagoon (?0.1?±?0.9 mm/year). The calculated rates of subsidence are of the same magnitude as rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the late Holocene and effectively double the ongoing rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the last five decades on other parts of the coast. The difference in rates of vertical motion among these four estuaries is attributed to their geological settings. Estuaries developed in subsiding geological structures such as synclines and fault-bounded basins are subsiding at much higher rates than those developed within flooded river valleys incised into marine terraces. Restoration projects accounting for future sea-level rise must consider the geologic setting of the estuaries and, if applicable, include subsidence in future sea-level rise scenarios, even along the tectonically uplifting US Pacific Coast.