Reconstruction of earthquake hazard in regions of sparse seismic monitoring

Studying strong motion records and the spatial distribution of ground shaking is of great importance in understanding the underlying causes of damage in earthquakes. Many regions in the world are either not instrumented or are sparsely instrumented. As such, significant opportunities for motion-damage correlations are lost. Two recent and damaging earthquakes belong to the class of lost opportunities, namely the Kashmir (Pakistan) earthquake of October 2005 and the Yogyakarta (Indonesia) earthquake of May 2006. In this paper, an overview of the importance of supply and demand studies in earthquake-stricken regions is given, followed by two examples of investigative engineering seismology aimed at reconstructing the hazard from sparse data. The paper closes with a plea for responsible authorities to invest in seismic monitoring networks in the very near future.     

Empirical model of variations in the 630 nm atomic oxygen emission. 2. Temperature

A model of the temperature variations of the atomic oxygen 630 nm emission for the nighttime conditions is created on the basis of the ground-based interferometer measurements of the Doppler temperature by Fabry-Pérot interferometers. On the basis of these measurements, various regular variations and their approximations for temperature evaluations for the given solar and geophysical conditions in the nighttime period of the day are obtained.     

Numerical simulation of accumulation of gas hydrates during sedimentation and compaction of sediments under subaqueous conditions

The mutual influence of compaction of depositing sediments and formation of gas hydrates in a porous medium is examined. Within the framework of the general mathematical model developed in this study, these interrelated processes are described by a nonlinear system of eight partial differential equations and are analyzed using numerical simulation in terms of the model including compaction of depositing sediments, movement of pore fluids, and formation of gas hydrates from dissolved methane accumulated during sedimentation. On the basis of model examples calculated with the use of representative parameters of the system, it is shown that the hydrate formation rate depends on the sedimentation rate and thermal conditions. Gas hydrate formation is shown to influence the pore fluid velocity in the near-surface zone of sediments.     

Geodynamic models and their application in the combined interpretation of geological and geophysical data (a review)

The paper presents a review of investigations in the field of the theory and practice of the interpretation of geological and geophysical data with geodynamic models that were carried out mainly by researchers of the Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Evolutionary models of platform structures, passive continental margins, rift zones, and orogens are examined. The review presents formulations of inverse problems and results of interpretation for various regions, including sedimentary basins of the East European Platform, Atlantic Ocean margins, the Caucasus, the South Urals, and others.     

Raman spectroscopy of nanocrystals in rock

Nanocrystals were detected and identified in rocks by the method of Raman spectroscopy. The experiments showed that the Raman scattering spectra of fine-lamellar arkosic sandstone exhibit bands corresponding to lattice vibrations of anatase, α-quartz, and plagioclase. In all spectra of the rock, the bands are displaced towards high frequencies as compared with their position in spectra of single crystals and widen on the same side. These results show that, in all of the studied places of the sample, the particles of anatase, quartz, and plagioclase have nanometer sizes, namely, of the order of 10 nm in anatase and quartz and about 20 nm in plagioclase. Moreover, in different places of the sample, not only the shape and position of the bands under study but also their intensity vary, the latter being directly proportional to the concentration of nanocrystals.     

Analysis of vertical crustal movements in the period of the Kaliningrad earthquake of September 21, 2004 (from sea level data)

The paper analyzes data of leveling and meteorological observations conducted in the Kaliningrad region in the second half of September 2004, i.e., during a period including the few moderate seismic shocks of September 21, 2004. The analysis of long observation series and comparison of sea level variations recorded from September 15 through 30, 2004, with meteorological data have led to the conclusion that, most probably, the Sambiiskii Peninsula subsided tectonically by 25–30 cm over 12–24 h and a new sequence of seismic shocks occurred five to eight hours after the beginning of the subsidence. The geodynamic and prognostic aspects of the results obtained in this work are discussed.     

Studying the effect of different approaches to estimating model parameters on the accuracy of river runoff simulation by SWAP model

Different approaches to estimating the parameters of SWAP physically based model, which describes heat and water transfer processes in the soil-vegetaion (snow) cover-atmosphere system are examined. In particular, two methods of a priori estimation of parameter values and two variants of their calibration are discussed. The parameter sets obtained by different methods were used to simulate the runoff from 12 experimental catchments in the eastern USA. The calculations were conducted for a 39-year period (1960–1998) with a 3-hour step. The results of calculations were compared with each other and with measured river runoff values in order to identify the parameter set that is optimal for runoff evaluation. A strategy is proposed for a priori parameter estimation in the case of basins where observational data are too poor to enable parameter calibration.     

Paleomagnetic correlation of sedimentary sequences: The use of secular geomagnetic variations for the differentiation and correlation of Holocene Aral Sea deposits

The paper presents results demonstrating the possibility of using data on paleosecular magnetic variations for correlation of young deposits. Using Holocene deposits of the Aral Sea as an example, it is shown that the combination of paleo-and petromagnetic data can be used to reliably correlate sections in presently isolated parts of a basin, as well as to correlate paleohydrologic events and estimate their age with regard for absolute radiocarbon datings. It is established that the most significant drop in the Aral Sea level occurred more than 2000–2500 yr ago and less significant drops that occurred later are dated at about 1500, 750–1050, and 270–500 yr ago.     

Effect of zonal E × B plasma drift on electron density in the low-latitude ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region at a solar activity maximum near vernal equinox

The variations in the density of the ionospheric F2 layer maximum (NmF2) under the action of the zonal plasma drift perpendicularly to the magnetic (B) and electric (E) fields in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east have been studied using the three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of electron and ion densities (N _e and N _i ) and temperatures (T _e and T _i ) in the low-latitude and midlatitude ionospheric F region and plasmasphere. The method of numerical calculations of N _e , N _i , T _e , and T _i , including the advantages of the Lagrangian and Eulerian methods, is used in the model. A dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field (B), taking into account the non-coincidence of the geographic and geomagnetic poles and differences between the positions of the Earth’s and geomagnetic dipole centers, is accepted in the calculations. The calculated NmF2 and altitudes of the F2 layer maximum (hmF2) have been compared with these quantities measured at 16 low-latitude ionospheric sounding stations during the geomagnetically quiet period October 11–12, 1958. This comparison made it possible to correct the input model parameters: the NRLMSISE-00 model [O], the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity according to the HWW90 model, and the meridional component of the equatorial plasma drift due to the electric field specified by the empirical model. It has been indicated that the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 can be neglected under daytime conditions and changes in NmF2 and hmF2 under the action of this drift are insignificant under nighttime conditions north of 25° and south of ?26° geomagnetic latitude. The effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 is most substantial in the nightside ionosphere approximately from ?20° to 20° geomagnetic latitude, and the neglect of this drift results in an up to 2.4-fold underestimation of NmF2. The found dependence of the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 on geomagnetic latitude is related to the longitudinal asymmetry of B, asymmetry of the neutral wind about the geomagnetic equator, and changes in the meridional E × B plasma drift at a change in geomagnetic longitude.     

Use of variograms for field magnetometry analysis in Upper Silesia Industrial Region

Measurements of topsoil magnetic susceptibility are often used for quick assessment of soil contamination of anthropogenic origin, with heavy metals or other pollutants. However, because of complicated correlations between low-field magnetic susceptibility (shortened to magnetic susceptibility) of topsoil and soil pollution, the outcome of a field magnetometry survey can not be related directly to soil pollution. For each case study, the results should be interpreted on their own taking into account not only the type of pollution but also pedogenic, biogenic and environmental factors. In practice, it is very difficult to measure and consider all these factors. Here we illustrate the merit of geostatistical methods, which are focused on the spatial variability of a phenomenon, in the interpretation of soil magnetometry results. This article presents the analysis of spatial variability of top soil layers magnetic susceptibility-within the Upper Silesia Industrial Region (USIR)-using semivariance analysis. It also explains how to adjust the sampling density of field magnetometry measurements to spatial variability of the soil pollution as well as to the spatial scale of the investigated area. For this purpose, the values of magnetic susceptibility have been measured by using various sampling densities at areas of different size located within USIR. This enabled to determine the main scales of magnetic susceptibility spatial variability of soils within USIR using semivariance. A few distinct scales of variability were found from the site scale to a more regional scale. Variability ranges of 30 km, 12 km, and 5 km refer to the large regional scale, whereas smaller ranges of few hundreds down to a few tens of meters, can be attributed to the local (site) scale. In addition, the precision of the measuring campaigns, performed within USIR with different sampling densities, was compared through the analysis of the spatial variability of the soil magnetic susceptibility signal by using ordinary kriging. jarek97@yahoo.com, piotr.fabijanczyk@is.pw.edu.pl