Study on the currents in Lake Biwa (II)

Some numerical experiments are made using a linear barotropic model of Lake Biwa to investigate the current induced by the spatially uniform wind stress. Concerning the phenomena whose time scale is longer than the inertial period, we integrate the non-divergent vorticity equation.It is found that the topographic curl of the wind stress which comes from the bottom topography and the wind stress induces circular currents and that the current, generated by the wind, attenuates gradually accompanying the topographic Rossby wave whose period is about 9 half-pendulum days in Lake Biwa. This mechanism of the barotropic response of the lake water to the wind will explain well the unsteady lake current in Lake Biwa in winter.     

Comets: a chronological history of observation,science, myth,and folklore

Book Review

Comets: a chronological history of observation, science, myth, and folkloreD. K. Yeomans, Wiley, New York and Chichester. i-x+485 pp., bibliography and index. Price: £25.00, US $35.00 (hardcover); ISBN 0-4-71-61011-9     

A method for estimating earthquake occurrence probability using first- and multiple-order Markov chain models

It is valuable in earthquake prediction to determine the occurrence probability of major earthquakes by making use of data obtained from precursory phenomena up to the time of the evaluation. In this study, the time evolution of the state determined by earthquakes and precursory phenomena was modelled using Markov chains. Various probabilities suitable for earthquake prediction were derived from the transition probability of the Markov chain with a chosen length of memory time. As an example, earthquake sequence records for northern China, which covered a period of about two thousand years, were examined and the results were also obtained from modern scientific observations of the radon anomaly which covered a period of about 10 years.Assuming moderate-sized earthquakes of two magnitude ranges 4 3/4 M 5 3/4, 6 M 6 3/4 as precursors to large earthquakes of a magnitude range, 7 M 8 1/2, transition probabilities were calculated for a time interval from 2 to 40 yr. The results showed that the precursory time of moderate-sized earthquakes is mainly distributed in a time span of around several years and that the earthquake occurrence probability is considerably large when the precursory earthquakes occur successively. Furthermore, it was shown that a larger moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 5 3/4) is a more effective precursor than an entire moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 6 3/4).Second, a multiple precursor case was tried by means of simulation based on the radon anomaly data obtained during a limited observation period. Simultaneous occurrence of two precursors makes the earthquake occurrence probability increase by 1.5–2.0 for a reasonable choice of a mean recurrence interval of the radon anomaly compared with the case where only a moderate-sized earthquake was treated as the precursor. However, the probability is much the same if the average recurrence interval of the radon anomaly is the same through time, including the preparatory period before the earthquake.     

Interior textures,chemical compositions,and noble gas signatures of Antarctic cosmic spherules: Possible sources of spherules with long exposure ages

Abstract– The interior texture and chemical and noble gas composition of 99 cosmic spherules collected from the meteorite ice field around the Yamato Mountains in Antarctica were investigated. Their textures were used to classify the spherules into six different types reflecting the degree of heating: 13 were cryptocrystalline, 40 were barred olivine, 3 were porphyritic A, 24 were porphyritic B, 9 were porphyritic C, and 10 were partially melted spherules. While a correlation exists between the type of spherule and its noble gas content, there is no significant correlation between its chemical composition and noble gas content. Fifteen of the spherules still had detectable amounts of extraterrestrial He, and the majority of them had ³He/⁴He ratios that were close to that of solar wind (SW). The Ne isotopic composition of 28 of the spherules clustered between implantation‐fractionated SW and air. Extraterrestrial Ar, confirmed to be present because it had a ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratio lower than that of terrestrial atmosphere, was found in 35 of the spherules. An enigmatic spherule, labeled M240410, had an extremely high concentration of cosmogenic nuclides. Assuming 4π exposure to galactic and solar cosmic rays as a micrometeoroid and no exposure on the parent body, the cosmic‐ray exposure (CRE) age of 393 Myr could be computed using cosmogenic ²¹Ne. Under these model assumptions, the inferred age suggests that the particle might have been an Edgeworth‐Kuiper Belt object. Alternatively, if exposure near the surface of its parent body was dominant, the CRE age of 382 Myr can be estimated from the cosmogenic ³⁸Ar using the production rate of the 2π exposure geometry, and implies that the particle may have originated in the mature regolith of an asteroid.     

Book reviews

Pure and Applied Geophysics -     

A new formula for evaluating the truncation error coefficient

In this paper, a new formula for evaluating the truncation coefficientQ _n is derived from recurrence relations of Legendre polynomials. The present formula has been conveniently processed by an electronic computer, providing the value ofQ _n up to a degreen=49 which are exactly equal to those of Paul (1973).     

Erratum

The Philippine Sea at 5 m.y. B.P has been reconstructed by the following process. Firstly, it was rotated rigidly relative to the Eurasian plate around the pole of rotation at 45.5°N, 150. 2°E with a rotation angle of 6.0° for the past 5 m.y. Secondly, the evolution and deformation along the plate boundaries were incorporated in the rigid rotation. This reconstruction suggests: (1) the Izu Peninsula, which was originally a volcanic island of the Izu-Bonin Arc, collided with central Honshu in a west-northwest direction a few million years B.P.; (2) a TTT(a)-type triple junction east of Honshu has migrated west-northwestward relative to the Eurasian plate; and (3) the subduction zone of the Pacific plate, beneath the central part of the Mariana Arc, has remained fixed relative to Eurasia. Westward motion of the Philippine Sea plate and subduction beneath the eastern Eurasian margin resulted in the opening of the Marian Trough.     

Probability of earthquake occurrence estimated from results of rock fracture experiments

The hazard rate, the number of fracture occurrences per unit time, which has been obtained from laboratory experiments of rock fracture, is obtained for the earth's crust by analysing the statistical distribution of geodetically-observed ultimate strain. The associated hazard function has two coefficients, A and B, to be determined. Comparison of the coefficients obtained by the results of rock-fracture experiments with the geodetically determined ones discloses that B is independent of the size-effect. It is therefore concluded that, if A is estimated from the statistics of the geodetically observed ultimate strain and B is obtained from fracture experiments of rock forming a local part of the crust, the probability of a local large-scale earthquake occurrence can be estimated.