1：5万地形图框架数据质量影响因素分析

数据质量成因分析是地图数据质量控制的一项基础性的工作，只有找出产生误差的原因才能提出控制质量方法。本文介绍了1：5万框架图数据生产的基本情况，详细分析了产生框架图数据误差的诸多原因，认为地图数据质量与生产模式、生产条件、技术准备、作业环境、生产资料、技术培训、软件系统、作业人员等多种因素有关。     

遥感技术在防震减灾领域中的应用

为了有效地组织救灾和震后重建,快速地获取地震造成的破坏程度、破坏范围成为至关重要的一环。遥感技术本身所具有的宏观性、时效性、经济高效性使其被广泛应用于防震减灾事业中。本文简单介绍了遥感技术的原理、特点及其在防震减灾领域中的应用历史及现状。在借鉴已有成果的基础上较系统地阐述了遥感技术在地震防灾方面的应用及展望。     

应用GPS研究现今地壳运动的一些新特点

介绍了第3代GPS卫星的基本特征以及国际全球导航卫星系统(IGS)目前提供的各种星历、卫星时钟和追踪站时钟的精度、地球极移参数、日长及其变化等,同时阐述了国内外GPS地壳形变观测网的最新发展状态,重点介绍了川西地壳形变科研观测网。讨论了GPS瞬时定位方法的特点及其应用,评述了利用GPS观测数据研究慢地震取得的成果及其动态。     

CGP叠加柱面波偏移成像方法

针对松辽盆地薄砂层油藏的地震勘探问题,提出了一种共检波器接收点(CGP)叠加柱面波偏移成像方法。该方法对小炮点距、小检波器点距、中间放炮观测系统采集地震资料,经CGP道集叠加组合成柱面波剖面;采用下行波射线法向下延拓和上行波波动方程向下延拓的方法,使柱面波剖面偏移成像。通过模型分析和对松辽盆地TK8157测线资料进行处理证明该方法的地震分辨率和保真度较高,在发现小砂体、小断层、地层尖灭等方面有较好的效果。     

Variations of <Emphasis Type="Italic">δ</Emphasis><Superscript>18</Superscript>O in precipitation from the Muztagata Glacier,East Pamirs

Expeditions to Muztagata (in the eastern Pamirs) during the summer seasons of 2002 and 2003 collected precipitation samples and measured their oxygen isotopes. The δ ¹⁸O in precipitation displays a wide range, varying from −17.40‰ to +1.33‰ in June-September 2002 and from −22.31‰ to +4.59‰ in May-August 2003. The δ ¹⁸O in precipitation correlates with the initial temperature of precipitation during the observing periods. The positive correlation between δ ¹⁸O and temperature suggests that δ ¹⁸O can be used as an indicator of temperature in this region. The δ ¹⁸O values in fresh-snow samples collected from two snow events at different elevations on the Muztagata Glacier show a strong “altitude effect”, with a ratio of nearly −0.40% per 100 m from 5500 m to 7450 m.     

Integration of transfer function model and back propagation neural network for forecasting storm sewer flow in Taipei metropolis

Typhoons and storms have often brought heavy rainfalls and induced floods that have frequently caused severe damage and loss of life in Taiwan. Our ability to predict sewer discharge and forecast floods in advance during storm seasons plays an important role in flood warning and flood hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop an integrated model (TFMBPN) for forecasting sewer discharge that combines two traditional models: a transfer function model and a back propagation neural network. We evaluated the integrated model and the two traditional models by applying them to a sewer system of Taipei metropolis during three past typhoon events (NARI, SINLAKU, and NAKR). The performances of the models were evaluated by using predictions of a total of 6 h of sewer flow stages, and six different evaluation indices of the predictions. Finally, an overall performance index was determined to assess the overall performance of each model. Based on these evaluation indices, our analysis shows that TFMBNP yields accurate results that surpass the two traditional models. Thus, TFMBNP appears to be a promising tool for flood forecasting for the Taipei metropolis sewer system. For publication in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Analysis.     

Stochastic generation of hourly rainstorm events

Occurrence of rainstorm events can be characterized by the number of events, storm duration, rainfall depth, inter-event time and temporal variation of rainfall within a rainstorm event. This paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model considering correlated non-normal random rainstorm characteristics, as well as dependence of various rainstorm patterns on rainfall depth, duration, and season. The proposed model was verified by comparing the derived rainfall depth–duration–frequency relations from the simulated rainfall sequences with those from observed annual maximum rainfalls based on the hourly rainfall data at the Hong Kong Observatory over the period of 1884–1990. Through numerical experiments, the proposed model was found to be capable of capturing the essential statistical features of rainstorm characteristics and those of annual extreme rainstorm events according to the available data.     

关于我国地震预报几点思考的再思考

在我国地震预报的经验性基础上,引入发生地震机理。只要地震、地质、地球物理、力学等专家齐心共同努力,搞清地壳、天气、天体等的一些物理化学参数后,完全可以实现科学数字地震预报。     

Size distributions of ambient air particles and enrichment factor analyses of metallic elements at Taichung Harbor near the Taiwan Strait

This work attempts to characterize metallic elements associated with atmospheric particulate matter on a dry deposition plate, a TE-PUF high-volume air sampler and a universal air sampler. Dry deposition fluxes of particulates and concentrations of total suspended particulate, fine (PM_2.5) and coarse (PM_2.5–10) particulate matters were collected at Taichung harbor sampling sites from August 2004 to January 2005. Chemical analyses of metallic elements were made using a flame atomic absorption spectrophotometer coupled with hollow cathode lamps. Concentrations of metal elements in the forms of coarse particles and fine particles as well as the coarse/fine particulate ratios were presented. Statistical methods such as correlation analysis, principal component analysis and enrichment factor analysis were performed to compare the chemical components and identify possible emission sources at the sampling sites. Metallic elements of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni and Mg had higher EF_crust ratios in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. Diurnal and nocturnal variations of metallic element concentrations in fine and coarse particles were also discussed.     

青藏铁路唐古拉山-拉萨段全新世控震断裂研究

地表调查表明,沿青藏铁路唐古拉山-拉萨段存在5条重要的全新世控震断裂带,从北到南分别是温泉盆地西缘断裂带、安多盆地北缘断裂带、崩错断裂带、谷露西缘断裂带和当雄-羊八井断裂带.构造-地貌和年代学分析结果表明,北部的温泉盆地西缘断裂和安多盆地北缘断裂带的活动强度相对比较小,平均垂直活动速率约为0.2～0.5mm/a.南侧的谷露西缘断裂带和当雄-羊八井断裂带的全新世垂直活动速率为约(15±0.5)mm/a.而中部的崩错走滑断裂带的活动强度最大,晚第四纪期间的走滑速率可达(11±4.5)mm/a.全新世断裂活动和古地震研究表明,其中温泉盆地西缘断裂带、安多盆地北缘断裂带、崩错断裂带的西北分支、当雄-羊八井断裂带的当雄段等区域未来发生强震的概率相对更大.