气态SO_2转化及其数值模型研究

本文基于对室外烟雾箱实验,探讨了SO_2的转化机制及影响SO_2转化的因素,由此并借助于烟团模型,建立了SO_2转化和硫酸盐气溶胶细粒子生成的数值模型,用于估算从排放源排入大气的SO_2浓度及其转化成硫酸盐细粒子的浓度以及它们的空间分布,与实测结果相比,两者有较好的一致性.同时指出,由于大气中细粒子(粒径小于1μm)可通过人体呼吸进入并沉积在肺泡中而对健康有不利影响,从而说明研究大气中细粒子污染的迫切性.     

Operational Evaluation of the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation by a CINRAD-SA Dual Polarization Radar System

In this paper, the quantitative precipitation estimation based on hydrometeor classification (HCA-QPE) algorithm was proposed for the first operational S band dual-polarization radar promoted by the CINRAD/SA radar of China. The HCA-QPE algorithm, the localized Colorado State University-Hydrometeor Identification of Rainfall (CSU-HIDRO) and Joint Polarization Experiment (JPOLE) algorithms, and the dynamic Z-R relationships based on variational correction QPE (DRVC-QPE) algorithm were evaluated with the rainfall events from March 1 to October 30, 2017 in the Guangdong Province. The results indicated that even though the HCA-QPE algorithm did not use the observed rainfall data for correction, its estimation accuracy was better than that of the DRVC-QPE algorithm when the rainfall rate was greater than 5mm h^(-1); and the stronger the rainfall intensity, the greater the QPE improvement. And the HCA-QPE algorithm worked better than the localized CSU-HIDRO and JPOLE algorithms. This study preliminarily verified the improved accuracy of QPE by a dual-polarization radar system modified from CINRAD-SA radar.     

苏通大桥桥位江面风速的数值试验

用WRF中尺度模式对苏通大桥桥位江面的风速进行了数值模拟。在修改了模式自带的静态地形数据后模拟效果较修改前有所改善。并发现在对天气系统有较准确模拟的情况下模式对桥位江面最大风速的模拟也较为精确,反之结果相差较多。挑选了其中两个个例并使用修改过静态地形数据的模式分别对地形和一些物理方案作敏感性试验,发现各种因素对模拟结果都有着不同程度的影响,起决定性作用的是水陆分布;在没有强对流天气系统的情况下各种微物理参数化方案对模拟结果均不产生明显影响;模拟时需加入长短波辐射参数化和边界层参数化方案,并且其中YSU边界层参数化方案的模拟结果最为理想。在缺乏江面风观测数据的时段里模式对江面风速的模拟结果具有一定的参考价值。     

基于邻域最优概率的GRAPES快速更新循环同化预报系统逐时降水订正方法

针对高分辨率数值天气预报的时空不确定性, 利用邻域最优概率方法对华南区域GRAPES快速更新循环同化预报系统的24 h预报进行逐时降水订正和检验评估。结果表明: (1)邻域法能改善模式降水预报的空间不确定性, 最优邻域半径随降水等级增加而减小, 强降水的最优邻域半径约为60 km; (2)通过引入时间滞后因子, 可进一步改善模式不同时间起报的不确定性, 结合Brier评分确定了时间滞后窗为4 h; (3)提出基于邻域最优概率阈值的降雨进行分级订正方法, 有效提升了降水客观预报能力, 晴雨预报较模式全部为正技巧, TS评分达到0.89以上, 总体提升幅度约5.3%;强降水预报同样均为正技巧, TS评分呈先降后升趋势, 在12 h时效前后预报效果最优, 进一步提升了GRAPES快速更新循环同化预报系统的业务预报水平。      

一种新的城市SO2污染统计预报方法及其应用

针对目前采用的统计方法存在的不足, 即在选择预报因子时没有考虑预报因子之间的相关性, 挑选的预报因子由于非正交, 使回归计算的结果不稳定, 给计算带来一定的误差。该文提出把一元线性回归分析、自然正交函数 (EOF) 和逐步回归方法结合起来, 从而得到一种新的建立统计预报模型的方法。以西安市采暖期和夏季SO₂日均浓度为预报对象, 使用该方法建立预报模型。拟合及预报试验表明, 这些预报模型不但可以很好地拟合变化趋势, 而且还能作出较准确的预报, 采暖期预报的级别命中率为72.5 %, 夏季级别预报命中率为100%。通过对比试验, 此方法优于目前常用的逐步回归方法, 具有很好的应用前景。     

Vertical Observations and Analysis of PM2.5, O3, and NOx at Beijing and Tianjin from Towers during Summer and Autumn 2006

During the period between 18 August and 22 September 2006, an ultraviolet photometric O3 analyzer, a NO-NO2-NOx chemiluminescence analyzer, and a quartz micro-oscillating-scale particle concentration analyzer were simultaneously used for monitoring at three different heights each at Beijing (325-m tower) and Tianjin (255-m tower). These towers belong to the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and to the Tianjin Municipal Meteorological Bureau, respectively. These measurements were used to continuously measure the atmospheric O3 and NOx volume-by-volume concentrations and the PM2.5 mass concentration within a vertical gradient. When combined with meteorological data and information on the variation of vertical characteristics of the various atmospheric pollutants in the two cities, analysis shows that these two cities were seriously polluted by both PM2.5 and O3 during summer and autumn. The highest daily-average concentrations of PM2.5 near the ground in Beijing and Tianjin reached 183 μg m-3 and 165 μg m-3, respectively, while the O3 concentrations reached 52 ppb and 77 ppb, and NOx concentrations reached 48 ppb and 62 ppb for these two cities, respectively. The variations in the daily-average concentrations of PM2.5 between Beijing and Tianjin were demonstrated to be consistent over time. The concentrations of PM2.5 measured in Beijing were found to be higher than those in Tianjin. However, the overall O3 concentrations near the ground in Tianjin were higher than in Beijing. NOx concentrations in Tianjin were consistently lower than in Beijing. It was also found that PM2.5 pollution in Beijings atmosphere may also be affected by the pollutants originating in and delivered from Tianjin, and that Ti     

The statistical structure of Lorenz strange attractors

The statistical characteristic quantities and marginal probability distribution of the Lorenz strange attractors were computed numerically. The results indicate that after a sufficiently long time the statistical characteristic quantities and marginal probability distribution tend to stable states, and the motion on the strange attractor is ergodic.     

宝鸡长寿沟渭河五级阶地磁性地层学研究

宝鸡长寿沟剖面系渭河北岸五级阶地第四纪堆积物。阶地基座为上第三系上中新统蓝田组红层。在该剖面采集了62组古地磁样品,经古地磁测定B/M界限位于L_8底部,贾拉米洛正极性亚带位于S_(10)至S_(11)地层段;长寿沟渭河五级阶地形成于1.3Ma左右。     

东坪金矿区成矿构造分析与成矿预测

依据东坪金矿区成矿特点进行了成矿构造的形成及应力分析，总结出一些成矿规律，并进一步对矿区一睦工作程度较低的区段进行了预测。     

中国海相油气田勘探实例之十三 塔里木盆地东河塘海相砂岩油田勘探与发现

东河塘油田位于新疆库车县,构造上隶属于塔里木盆地塔北隆起轮台凸起东河塘断裂构造带,是我国发现的第一个高产高丰度海相砂岩油田,它的发现是中国海相砂岩油气勘探理论和实践的一次重大突破。油田发现于1990年7月,至1994年探明石油地质储量3323.13×104t,天然气地质储量15.5×108m3,至2009年底累计产原油825.75×104t。石炭系东河砂岩油藏是东河塘油田的主体,其储层东河砂岩段是一套滨岸相砂体,具有厚度巨大、埋深大、储集性能好的特点;其油藏类型为块状底水背斜油藏,产能高,储量丰度高。论述了东河塘油田勘探与发现的历程,剖析了取得勘探成功的实践认识与意义。