Present and projected degree days in China from observation,reanalysis and simulations

Degree days are usually defined as the accumulated daily mean temperature varying with the base temperature, and are one of the most important indicators of climate changes. In this study, the present-day and projected changes of four degree days indices from daily mean surface air temperature output simulated by Max Planck Institute, Earth Systems Model of low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) model are evaluated with the high resolution gridded-observation dataset and two modern reanalyses in China. During 1979–2005, the heating degree days (HDD) and the numbers of HDD (NHDD) have decreased for observation, reanalyses (ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR) and model simulations (historical and decadal experiments), consistent with the increasing cooling degree days (CDD) and the numbers of CDD (NCDD). These changes reflect the general warming in China during the past decades. In most cases, ERA-Interim is closer to observation than NCEP/NCAR and model simulations. There are discrepancies between observation, reanalyses and model simulations in the spatial patterns and regional means. The decadal hindcast/forecast simulation performance of MPI-ESM-LR produce warmer than the observed mean temperature in China during the entire period, and the hindcasts forecast a trend lower than the observed. Under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios, HDD and NHDD show significant decreases, and CDD and NCDD consistently increase during 2006–2100 under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, especially before the mid-21 century. More pronounced changes occur under RCP8.5, which is associated with a high rate of radiative forcing. The 20th century runs reflect the sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the uncertainties in terms of the inter-ensemble are small, whereas the long-term trend is well represented with no differences among ensembles.     

Site selection in municipal solid waste management with extended VIKOR method under fuzzy environment

Nowadays, selection of the suitable disposal site in municipal solid waste (MSW) management has become a challenge task for the municipal authorities, especially in fast-growing areas. Site selection can be viewed as a complicated multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem requiring consideration of multiple alternative solutions and conflicting quantitative and qualitative criteria. In this paper, linguistic variables, which can be expressed as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the selection criteria. The ordered weighted averaging operator is utilized to transform the fuzzy decision matrix into crisp values considering the decision maker’s attitudinal character. For selecting the best site, the extended VIsekriterijumska optimizacija i KOmpromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method is applied to determine the priority ranking of alternatives. As a result, a hierarchy MCDM model based on fuzzy set theory and VIKOR method is proposed to deal with the site selection problems in the MSW management system. An empirical study in Shanghai, China, is provided and comparison with the existing approach is conducted to illustrate the applicability and benefits of the proposed method.     

深部开采圆形巷道围岩破损区与支护压力的确定

应用经典塑性力学理论确定的圆形巷道围岩弹塑性应力场存在一些问题,这影响深部圆形巷道的稳定性评价及支护设计的合理性。应用塑性力学求解新体系确定的圆形巷道围岩弹塑性应力场准确解,进行了各向同性均质地层中圆形巷道破损区、地层残余强度与支护压力关系方面的研究,取得了如下成果:(1)破损区随开采深度的增加而增大,它们基本呈线性关系。(2)建立了支护压力与巷道埋深、围岩强度、围岩破坏后残余强度、围岩泊松比和重度之间的关系。研究成果可为支护设计提供重要参考。     

Emergency alternative evaluation and selection based on ANP,DEMATEL, and TL-TOPSIS

With the increasing occurrence frequency of emergency events, emergency management (EM) has been a very important issue in management science. One of the major activities of EM is to evaluate and select the most desirable emergency alternative(s). This paper proposes a new framework combining the analytic network process (ANP) method, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) technique, and 2-tuple linguistic technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TL-TOPSIS) method to solve the emergency alternative evaluation and selection problem. This study has been done in three stages. In the first stage, we use DEMATEL technique to obtain the network relation map (NRM) among emergency alternative evaluation criteria or sub-criteria. In the second stage, we use ANP method to calculate the global weight of each sub-criterion based on the NRM among emergency alternative evaluation sub-criteria. In the third stage, the ratings of emergency alternative with respect to each sub-criterion are described by linguistic items, and the TL-TOPSIS method is used to rank the emergency alternative. Finally, a practical example of urban fire emergency alternative selection is given to illustrate the application of the proposed framework.

     

长江三峡库区地震地形变监测研究

三峡地壳形变监测网络结合空间大地测量(GPS、InSAR)和传统大地测量的优点，在1998年以来的三峡工程建设期间和2003年水库首次蓄水中获取了大量监测成果。结果显示库区地壳运动的基本图像：垂直形变较为显著，主要来自因蓄水荷载而产生的形变，水平形变不明显．库区主要断层的活动性在蓄水期间有明显加强迹象。水准测量反映从1998年首期观测至2003年10月首次蓄水后的库区垂直位移．沉降范围较大；GPS给出了2003年蓄水前后库区的垂直位移，形变的范围主要集中在水库近岸区域。水准测量与GPS观测反应的垂直位移的量级基本一致，沉降的最大幅度在3～4cm左右。水准监测、GPS观测与重力监测结果有一定的对应性。从地壳形变监测与研究结果分析，近期负荷改变而诱发中强地震的可能性不大。     

三维目标位姿跟踪与模型修正

本文是机器视觉参量下的三维数字摄影测量智能构像基础工作之一：成像系统位置姿态自动跟踪与精密修正,属于摄影测量与机器视觉、数字图像处理等学科交叉的摄像测量领域。针对基于目标3D模型的位姿跟踪问题开展研究,对相关研究的现状进行梳理,并提出系列位姿跟踪与模型修正方法。在完全已知目标3D精确模型的情况下,对于包含丰富直线特征的特殊目标,提出基于直线模型的目标位姿跟踪方法,实现了目标位姿参数的精确跟踪;为处理更为一般目标,利用目标的3D边缘模型,提出法向距离迭代加权最小二乘位姿估计方法及距离图迭代最小二乘位姿跟踪方法。当目标3D直线模型参数不准确时,结合光束法平差思想,提出一种针对序列图像的基于3D直线模型同时位姿跟踪与模型修正方法,联合优化求解目标位姿参数及3D直线模型参数,在模拟空间卫星目标位姿测量的仿真试验中,模型直线朝向、位置误差及目标位姿平均角度、平均位置误差分别为0.3°、3.5 mm及0.12°、20.1 mm。针对包含丰富直线特征的目标,在其3D直线模型完全未知的情况下,提出基于序列图像直线对应的目标结构重建与位姿跟踪方法,利用序列图像信息,在SFM框架下同时优化求解目标直线模型参数及位姿参数,仿真试验条件下,重建模型直线朝向、位置误差及位姿参数平均角度、平均位置误差分别约为0.4°、7.5 mm及0.16°、23.5 mm。     

江陵凹陷新生代玄武岩水-岩反应模拟及其对富钾卤水成因的指示

关于江陵凹陷富钾卤水的物质来源和成因机理仍未查明. 对凹陷新生代玄武岩开展矿物学、岩石学、地球化学研究以及水-岩反应模拟实验,重点研究时间、温度、流体成分等对水-岩反应的影响. 结果表明,卤水具有高锂低镁的特征,说明其在成因上受到火山活动的影响;研究区岩浆发生不同程度的分异,玄武岩蚀变作用强烈,表明地下热液的交代作用强烈,玄武岩通过水-岩反应为富钾卤水矿提供了物质来源;温度是流体对元素的淋滤能力的主要控制因素,高盐度流体是各成矿元素主要的迁移载体,水-岩反应是卤水形成的重要过程.      

西沙群岛西科1井第四纪生物礁中典型暴露面的岩石学与孔隙特征

根据岩心观察、薄片鉴定和图像分析, 对西科1井第四纪发育的典型暴露面及其附近的岩石类型、成岩作用和孔隙类型进行了系统的分析.研究表明: 典型暴露面(埋深68.75~70.24 m)附近的岩石类型为骨架灰岩和泥粒灰岩, 成岩作用类型包括溶解作用、胶结作用、泥晶化作用和新生变形作用, 孔隙类型主要为粒间孔和粒间溶孔、粒内孔及粒内溶孔、生长骨架孔及其溶孔、铸模孔和晶间溶孔.碳酸盐矿物的悬垂状产状、生物体腔孔充填物的方解石化和普遍发育的溶解作用指示该深度段遭受了大气水淋滤的强烈改造.      

A mechanism for the origin and development of the large-scale dunefield on the right flank of the lower reach of Laoha River, Northeast China

By viewing satellite imagery, a striking large-scale dunefield can be clearly perceived, with a size of nearly 63 km long and 11 km wide, and trending NE–SW, on the right flank of the lower Laoha River, Northeast China. By means of remote sensing imagery analysis and field observation as well as a comparison with a small-scale dunefield on the right flank of the lower Xiangshui River, analogous to the case of the lower Laoha River, this paper presents a new mechanism for its origin and development. The results show that:(1) the large-scale dunefield bears a tile-style framework overwhelmingly composed of transverse barchanoid ridges perpendicular to the predominant winds, and inlaid diverse blowouts.(2) The small-scale dunefield, referred to as a primary structural unit of the large one, is typical of an incipient dunefield, following the same rules of evolution as the larger.(3) A succession of barchanoid ridge chains can steadily migrate downwind in much the same manner as surface wave propagation in air or water stimulated by an incised valley, and ultimately tend to bear roughly the same wavelength and amplitude under stable climate and hydrologic regimes.(4) The first ridge chain acquires its sand source substantially from the downwind escarpments exposing the loose Quaternary sandy sediments to the air, while the ensuing ridges derive their sands dominantly from in situ deflation of the underlain Quaternary loose sandy sediments in blowouts, partly from the upwind ridges through northern elongated horns. Theoretically, the sands from riparian escarpments can be transported by wind to the downwind distal end of a dunefield after sufficient long duration.(5) The lower Laohahe region experienced probably three significant climatic changes in the past, corresponding to the three active dune belts, suggesting that once a large-scale dunefield occurs, it is nearly impossible to be completely stabilized, at least in its central portions. At present, seasonal shrinkage and stagnation of the lower Laoha River, widespread farming and afforestation in the valley, and establishing windbreaks downwind of the valley as well as surrounding the dunefield, appear to have significantly modified local flow fields and sand sources, engendering significant degradation of the dunefield.