Role of tropical atlantic SST variability as a modulator of El Niño teleconnections

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).     

Decadal prediction skill in the GEOS-5 forecast system

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO’s) GEOS-5 Atmosphere–Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO’s atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 % improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.     

Assessment of Nanosecond Laser Ablation Multi‐Collector Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Mass Spectrometry for Pb and Sr Isotopic Determination in Archaeological Glass: Mass Bias Correction Strategies and Results for Corning Glass Reference Materials

This work presents an evaluation of various methods for in situ high‐precision Sr and Pb isotopic determination in archaeological glass (containing 100–500 μg g^?1 target element) by nanosecond laser ablation multi‐collector‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (ns‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS). A set of four soda‐lime silicate glasses, Corning A–D, mimicking the composition of archaeological glass and produced by the Corning Museum of Glass (Corning, New York, USA), were investigated as candidates for matrix‐matched reference materials for use in the analysis of archaeological glass. Common geological reference materials with known isotopic compositions (USGS basalt glasses BHVO‐2G, GSE‐1G and NKT‐1G, soda‐lime silicate glass NIST SRM 610 and several archaeological glass samples with known Sr isotopic composition) were used to evaluate the ns‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS analytical procedures. When available, ns‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS results for the Corning glasses are reported. These were found to be in good agreement with results obtained via pneumatic nebulisation (pn) MC‐ICP‐MS after digestion of the glass matrix and target element isolation. The presence of potential spectral interference from doubly charged rare earth element (REE) ions affecting Sr isotopic determination was investigated by admixing Er and Yb aerosols by means of pneumatic nebulisation into the gas flow from the laser ablation system. It was shown that doubly charged REE ions affect the Sr isotope ratios, but that this could be circumvented by operating the instrument at higher mass resolution. Multiple strategies to correct for instrumental mass discrimination in ns‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS and the effects of relevant interferences were evaluated. Application of common glass reference materials with basaltic matrices for correction of ns‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS isotope data of archaeological glasses results in inaccurate Pb isotope ratios, rendering application of matrix‐matched reference materials indispensable. Correction for instrumental mass discrimination using the exponential law, with the application of Tl as an internal isotopic standard element introduced by pneumatic nebulisation and Corning D as bracketing isotopic calibrator, provided the most accurate results for Pb isotope ratio measurements in archaeological glass. Mass bias correction relying on the power law, combined with intra‐element internal correction, assuming a constant ⁸⁸Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio, yielded the most accurate results for ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr determination in archaeological glasses     

Strength Anisotropy of Compacted Decomposed Granite Soils

In order to investigate the strength and deformation anisotropy of compacted decomposed granite soils, a series of drained triaxial compression tests was performed on unsaturated and saturated decomposed granite soils. The specimens were subjected to compression tests such that the angle δ of the direction of the major principal stress, σ ₁, during triaxial compression relative to the compaction plane (bedding plane) varies, with δ = 0°, 45° and 90°. Test results indicated that the compressive strain of the specimens subjected to isotropic consolidation was influenced strongly by the angle δ. In addition, the effect of the angle δ on the triaxial compressive strength and deformation was more evident in unsaturated specimens than in saturated specimens. Based on the test results, a procedure which can be used to estimate the shear strength of unsaturated soils taking into account various angles δ was proposed.     

Effects of freshwater runoff on a tropical pacific climate in the HadGEM2

This paper investigates the effects of river discharge on simulated climatology from 1979 to 1988 using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2. Two experiments are performed with and without the inclusion of Total Runoff Integrating Pathways. The results show that the inclusion of flow routing can lead to the decrease of salinity over the coastal region due to freshwater. This reduction results in a shallower mixed layer depth, which in turn leads to the weakening of trade winds and a decrease in vertical mixing in the ocean. The enhanced sensible and latent heat fluxes over warmed SST improve the simulated precipitation and thermodynamic circulation. As a result, the experiment with flow routing is capable of improving the large-scale climate feature with an increase in precipitation over the eastern tropical equatorial Pacific region.     

Mechanism of skillful seasonal surface chlorophyll prediction over the southern Pacific using a global earth system model

Climate Dynamics - This study investigates the physical mechanism involved in an Earth system model (ESM)-based global marine biogeochemical prediction system providing successful forecasts of...     

New perspectives on ethnic segregation over time and space. A domains approach

Ethnic segregation has most often been studied at the place of residence, segregation being defined on the basis of the relative presence of different groups within city neighbourhoods. It is increasingly recognized, however, that segregation occurs in different ways in different domains (such as the workplace, leisure, social media, etc.), the residential domain being just one of many in which segregation can occur. In this research note we present the domains approach to segregation and outline some its conceptual, methodological and empirical underpinnings and challenges.     

Soil temperatures in four metropolitan cities of Korea from 1960 to 2010: implications for climate change and urban heat

This study was conducted to reveal the trends of the air temperature and soil temperature for 51 years (1960–2010) and their relationship in four of Korea’s largest metropolitan cities (Seoul, Incheon, Busan and Daejeon). Also, the trends of the air and soil temperatures between the studied metropolitan cities and a rural area (Chupungryong) were compared to examine the effect of urban heat. Among the metropolitan cities, the long-term mean soil temperatures (depth 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 3.0, 5.0 m) were lowest (13.34–14.80 °C) in Seoul and highest (16.24–16.54 °C) in Busan, which is mainly the effect of the latitude. The soil temperature exponentially increased with depth in the three cities except for Busan and was closely related to the air temperature. The soil temperatures responded well to the air temperature change (maximum correlation coefficients 0.88–0.98) but this response was slightly delayed with depth. The air and soil temperatures increased at the rates of 0.24–0.40 and 0.11–0.73 °C/decade, respectively, for the period. The increasing rate of the soil temperature was the largest in Daejeon as 0.39–0.73 °C/decade, which was almost 2–4 times greater than those of the other cities (0.11–0.40 °C/decade), and it rose with depth. The increase of the soil temperature was coincident with the increase of the air temperature, which indicates that the soil temperature was largely affected by the increasing of the air temperature. In contrast, the increase in air temperature in Chupungryong (0.06 °C/decade) was significantly lower than in the metropolitan cities. In addition, the increase of the soil temperature in the rural area (0.13 °C/decade) was also much lower than that in the inland cities (0.20–0.27 °C/decade) while it showed no substantial difference from that in the coastal cities (0.11–0.15 °C/decade). Therefore, it is inferred that the soil temperature of the metropolitan cities increased with the increase of the air temperature due to global warming as well as the anthropogenic urban heat.