Transient and Transition Factors in Modeling Permafrost Thaw and Groundwater Flow

Permafrost covers approximately 24% of the Northern Hemisphere, and much of it is degrading, which causes infrastructure failures and ecosystem transitions. Understanding groundwater and heat flow processes in permafrost environments is challenging due to spatially and temporarily varying hydraulic connections between water above and below the near-surface discontinuous frozen zone. To characterize the transitional period of permafrost degradation, a three-dimensional model of a permafrost plateau that includes the supra-permafrost zone and surrounding wetlands was developed. The model is based on the Scotty Creek basin in the Northwest Territories, Canada. FEFLOW groundwater flow and heat transport modeling software is used in conjunction with the piFreeze plug-in, to account for phase changes between ice and water. The Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) flow model is used to calculate ground temperatures and surface water balance, which are then used as FEFLOW boundary conditions. As simulating actual permafrost evolution would require hundreds of years of climate variations over an evolving landscape, whose geomorphic features are unknown, methodologies for developing permafrost initial conditions for transient simulations were investigated. It was found that a model initialized with a transient spin-up methodology, that includes an unfrozen layer between the permafrost table and ground surface, yields better results than with steady-state permafrost initial conditions. This study also demonstrates the critical role that variations in land surface and permafrost table microtopography, along with talik development, play in permafrost degradation. Modeling permafrost dynamics will allow for the testing of remedial measures to stabilize permafrost in high value infrastructure environments.     

波浪作用下湖泊底泥的输沙试验研究

湖泊底泥的运动过程产生内源污染,加剧湖泊生态环境的恶化.研究湖泊底泥在波浪作用下的输沙规律,可为研究湖泊的水质变化成因及生态环境治理提供参考依据.利用大型波浪水槽,在波浪作用条件下对太湖、龙感湖、巢湖的底泥进行了起动和输沙试验,对多组波浪水文条件下湖泊底泥的输沙试验结果进行分析,详细地阐述了太湖、龙感湖、巢湖底泥在波浪作用下的输沙变化规律.分析整理试验数据,得出输沙率变化公式,为3个湖泊的水质变化成因分析及生态环境治理提供参考依据.     

高精度温度计在水温观测中的仪器稳定性分析

利用宁波地震台水温10年来的单测项、6年来的同层比测资料,对高精度温度计的仪器短期和长期稳定性进行分析对比。研究发现仪器长期存在漂移现象,漂移量的大小与每套仪器的系统特性有关,但随着观测时间的延续,漂移量逐渐减少,认为该现象对地震前兆观测影响不大;短期稳定性存在不明原因的阶跃和脉冲现象,但次数不多,幅度不大,如果不是并行观测,较难判别。因此,在资料分析时要考虑仪器的这些问题。有时仪器短期非常稳定,数天至20天整点值为同一测值。     

Sedimentology,palaeoecology and geochronology of Last Interglacial deposits from Deeping St James,Lincolnshire, England

Pollen, plant macrofossil, molluscan and coleopteran data from organic muds below the low terrace of the River Welland at Deeping St James, Lincolnshire indicate deposition in the mixed oak forest phase of a Late Pleistocene interglacial. Coleopteran and molluscan data suggest summer temperatures up to 4°C warmer than at present in eastern England, and plant macrofossil material suggests a climate more continental than that of Britain in the Holocene. No direct analogue of this biota, however, exists currently in Europe. Biostratigraphical indications from the pollen coleoptera and Mollusca suggest an age in the Ipswichian Interglacial. Thermoluminescence dates between 120 ka and 75 ka and amino-acid ratios with a mean of 0.11 show that deposition of the sediments took place during Oxygen Isotope Stage 5. This accurate dating of a partial Ipswichian succession allows discussion of the ages of a number of other interglacial sites in eastern England of assumed Ipswichian age. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

P2000型测氡仪在气氡连续观测中记录的潮汐现象

利用宁波地震台ZK03井的原气氡观测系统,将P2000型测氡仪应用于气氡连续观测试验,记录到较明显的潮汐现象且其波动幅度较大。功率谱估计结果显示,观测数据存在显著的固体潮效应。同时,与同井观测的动水位、同台观测的VS垂直摆NS向记录的潮汐波形进行对比,发现曲线变化趋势基本一致,每天都有两峰两谷,但存在约2h的时间差。P2000型测氡仪具有自动扣除本底污染的功能,其记录到的波形能更真实地反应地下流体中气氡浓度的动态变化过程,可应用于地震流体气氡的连续观测。     

多年冻土区活动层冻融状况及土壤水分运移特征

利用位于典型多年冻土区的唐古拉综合观测场2007年9月1日—2008年9月1日实测活动层剖面土壤温度和水分数据,对多年冻土区活动层的冻结融化规律进行研究;同时,对冻融过程中的活动层土壤液态水含量的变化特征进行分析,探讨了活动层内部土壤水分分布特征及其运移特点对活动层冻结融化过程的影响. 结果表明：活动层融化过程从表层开始向下层土壤发展,冻结过程则会出现双向冻结现象. 一个完整的年冻融循环中活动层冻结过程耗时要远远小于融化过程. 活动层土壤经过一个冻融循环,土壤水分整体呈现下移的趋势,土壤水分逐步运移至多年冻土上限附近积累. 同时,土壤水分含量和运移特征会对活动层冻融过程产生显著的影响.     

歧口凹陷新生界火成岩油藏特征及分布规律

歧口凹陷新生界发育了两类与火成岩相关的油藏：基性火山岩油藏和浅成侵入相辉绿岩蚀变带油藏,两者都为构造-岩性油藏。这两类油藏区域上受岩浆活动带控制,主要集中于NE向和EW向断裂转换带,并受烃源岩分布范围的影响而紧邻烃源岩分布;垂向上受区域盖层控制,集中于沙一中亚段和东三段。在转换带沙一中亚段和东三段内,火成岩能否富集成藏主要取决于储集系统的类型。开放式储集系统一方面利于流体替换使火成岩储集空间中的矿化水被及时排出减少次生矿物的形成,从而保护储集空间;另一方面利于富含有机酸流体进入火成岩储集体,通过溶蚀先期形成的杏仁体、裂缝充填物及火成岩中不稳定的矿物组分,使其储集空间扩大、容积增加,使火成岩的储集性能得以改善;另外,火成岩中的断裂通过与烃源岩的沟通为烃类注入富集成藏提供了必要的输导通道,致使这类储集系统能够富集烃类成藏。封闭式储集系统缺少这些条件,岩浆期后热液流体与成岩流体被包裹在火成岩储集空间内不能被排出,易形成次生矿物充填并堵塞这些空间,丧失其储集性能。部分未被充填的空间往往相互之间难以连通,并与生排烃地层隔绝而成为烃类难以注入的死孔隙,从而使这类储集系统难以聚集成藏。     

Streamflow regimes of the Yanhe River under climate and land use change,Loess Plateau,China

Soil and water conservation measures including terracing, afforestation, construction of sediment‐trapping dams, and the ‘Grain for Green Program’ have been extensively implemented in the Yanhe River watershed, of the Loess Plateau, China, over the last six decades, and have resulted in large‐scale land use and land cover changes. This study examined the trends and shifts in streamflow regime over the period of 1953–2010 and relates them to changes in land use and soil and water conservation and to the climatic factors of precipitation and air temperature. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Pettitt test were used to identify trends and shifts in streamflow and base flow. A method based on precipitation and potential evaporation was used to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and changes in non‐climate factors changes on annual streamflow. A significant decrease (p = 0.01) in annual streamflow was observed related to a significant change point in 1996, mostly because of significant decreases in streamflow (p = 0.01) in the July to September periods in subsequent years. The annual base flow showed no significant trend from 1953 to 2010 and no change point year, mostly because there were no significant seasonal trends, except for significant decreases (p = 0.05) in the July to September periods. There was no significant trend for precipitation over the studied time period, and no change point was detected. The air temperature showed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.01), and 1986 (p < 0.01) was the change point year. The climate variability, as measured by precipitation and temperature, and non‐climate factors including land use changes and soil and water conservation were estimated to have contributed almost equally to the reduction in annual streamflow. Soil and water conservation practices, including biological measures (e.g. revegetation, planting trees and grass) and engineering measures (such as fish‐scale pits, horizontal trenches, and sediment‐trapping dams) play an important role in reduction of the conversion of rainfall to run‐off. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于陆路交通网的空间通达性分析——以兰州-西宁城市区域为例

以兰州-西宁城市区域交通路网为例,基于空间句法模型、日常可达性模型和等时圈通过特征点算法,试图运用GIS技术将节点、轴线和域面结合起来对通达性进行全面阐述,多视角综合测度区域路网通达性的空间格局。研究结果表明:1.区域路网体系较为完善,路网线段集聚相对明显;线段式空间伸展格局呈"点-轴"状,轴线式空间伸展格局呈"干-枝"状,初步形成核心、过渡、外围三大等级圈层以及"X"字型路网骨架,区域交通运输与城镇发展水平表现出较强的共轭协同发展关系。2.等时圈沿国道、省道、县道扩散表现连续,沿封闭铁路、高速公路扩散出现跳跃,其等时圈空间特征多呈现"枝-叶"状。城镇日常可达性在较大程度上取决于区域中心性、周边路网发达程度和城镇密集程度,区域路网单中心极化现象比较明显,兰州市对整个区域路网的控制作用较为突出。3.区域通达度空间分布各异,核心板块破碎而外围板块连片。区域通达性差异极其显著,出现极高值区和极低值区;兰州与西宁通达度中高值区出现断裂,区域南部通达度极低值区连片成带。因此,应当构建兰州地区绕城高速和环状路网,实现路网交通的适度分流;加快兰州-西宁高等级快速交通建设,推进兰州-西宁区域一体化进程;建设兰成铁路和兰州至云南磨憨口岸高速通道,培育临夏为南部区域性中心城市。     

FY-3A/MERSI数据在典型大城市热环境监测预报中的应用——以上海市为例

以上海市为例,探索中国新型自主的FY-3A/MERSI数据在典型大城市热环境研究中的应用模式,包括实时监测与同化数值预报两个方面。结果表明:FY-3A/MERSI反演的250 m地表温度及其他衍生指标能够客观呈现城市热场格局及热岛效应,精细揭示出上海市区—近郊—远郊的地温明显分异,热岛由中心城区呈放射性面状过渡到远郊以乡镇为中心的团块状,其形成与下垫面介质关系密切。同化FY-3A/MERSI数据产品的中尺度数值模式,耦合城市冠层参数化方案,可实现250 m格网0～48 h城市近地层气温空间精细化预报,提取1 h间隔的热环境日演变特征将有助于在不同天气形式下进行热环境灾害潜式预报及机理分析。预报结果在时空分辨率方面明显优于常规数值预报,并避免了卫星云污染的影响,说明FY-3A卫星探测资料能有效改善模式背景场与初始场。