关于长期天气预报的一些意见

本文简要地陈述了若干长期天气过程的特征及表征长期天气过程并用之于长期天气预报的方法。     

A STUDY ON VARIABLE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION USING DOPPLER RADAR DATA

With the pros and cons of the traditional optimization and probability pairing methods thoroughly considered, an improved optimal pairing window probability technique is developed using a dynamic relationship between the base reflectivity Z observed by radar and real time precipitation I by rain gauge. Then, the Doppler radar observations of base reflectivity for typhoons Haitang and Matsa in Wenzhou are employed to establish various Z-I relationships, which are subsequently used to estimate hourly precipitation of the two typhoons. Such estimations are calibrated by variational techniques. The results show that there exist significant differences in the Z-I relationships for the typhoons, leading to different typhoon precipitation efficiencies. The typhoon precipitation estimated by applying radar base reflectivity is capable of exhibiting clearly the spiral rain belts and mesoscale cells, and well matches the observed rainfall. Error statistical analyses indicate that the estimated typhoon precipitation is better with variational calibration than the one without. The variational calibration technique is able to maintain the characteristics of the distribution of radar-estimated typhoon precipitation, and to significantly reduce the error of the estimated precipitation in comparison with the observed rainfall.     

“10.7”安庆特大暴雨及中尺度低涡结构的数值模拟与分析

采用常规气象观测、地面加密降水资料、FY-2E卫星逐时TBB资料以及WRFV3.3高分辨率模式输出资料,对2010年7月12-13日安庆罕见特大暴雨过程的中尺度对流系统的发生发展、结构特征及形成原因进行了综合分析.WRFV3.3中尺度非静力模式很好地模拟了此次切变线暴雨的雨带走向、几个暴雨中心的位置和强度,以及中尺度对...     

Vertical distributions of aerosol optical properties during haze and floating dust weather in Shanghai

A comparative study on the vertical distributions of aerosol optical properties during haze and floating dust weather in Shanghai was conducted based on the data obtained from a micro pulse lidar.There was a distinct difference in layer thickness and extinction coefficient under the two types of weather conditions.Aerosols were concentrated below 1 km and the aerosol extinction coefficients ranged from 0.25 to 1.50km^-1 on haze days.In contrast,aerosols with smaller extinction coefficients(0.20 0.35 km^-1) accumulated mainly from the surface to 2 km on floating dust days.The seasonal variations of extinction and aerosol optical depth（AOD） for both haze and floating dust cases were similar greatest in winter,smaller in spring,and smallest in autumn.More than 85%of the aerosols appeared in the atmosphere below 1 km during severe haze and floating dust weather.The diurnal variation of the extinction coefficient of haze exhibited a bimodal shape with two peaks in the morning or at noon,and at nightfall,respectively.The aerosol extinction coefficient gradually increased throughout the day during floating dust weather.Case studies showed that haze aerosols were generated from the surface and then lifted up,but floating dust aerosols were transported vertically from higher altitude to the surface.The AOD during floating dust weather was higher than that during haze.The boundary layer was more stable during haze than during floating dust weather.     

利用防火墙软件实现市、县局用户共享上网

介绍采用W inRoute F irewall软件实现市、县局用户共享上网的方法,使市县局用户既能共享网络资源,又能有效地保障网络安全。     

RADARSAT数字图像积雪覆盖下地物解译方法

采用加拿大RADARSAT雷达数字图像,以新疆阿勒泰地区阿勒泰市、布尔津、吉木乃、哈巴河、福海5个县(市)为典型试验区,研究了积雪覆盖下雷达遥感图像地物解译的基本原理和几何纠正方法,比较分析了标准模式的地理参考高分辨率合成孔径雷达图像与经过亮度增强、边缘增强、图像增强、斑点压缩和纹理分析处理的图像上地物目视解译的特点,建立了积雪覆盖下雷达图像上耕地、水系、交通道路、居民地等与抗灾救灾密切相关的地物的解译标志。结果表明,可弥补可见光及近红外遥感积雪监测的缺陷,为雪灾发生区的救援决策提供科学依据。     

基于统计降尺度模型的江淮流域极端气候的模拟与预估

利用江淮流域29个代表站点1961--2000年逐日最高温度、最低温度和逐日降水资料,以及NCEP逐日大尺度环流场资料,引入基于多元线性回归与随机天气发生器相结合的统计降尺度模型SDSM（statistical downscalingmodel）,通过对每个站点建模,确立SDSM参数,并将该模型应用于SRESA2排放情景下HadCM3和cGcM3模式,得到了江淮流域各代表台站21世纪的逐日最高、最低温度和降水序列以及热浪、霜冻、强降水等极端气候指数。结果表明,当前气候下,统计降尺度方法模拟的极端温度指数与观测值有很好的一致性,能有效纠正耦合模式的“冷偏差”,如SDSM对江淮平均的冬季最高、最低温度的模拟偏差较CGCM3模式分别减少3℃和4．5℃。对于极端降水则能显著纠正耦合模式模拟的降水强度偏低的问题,如CGCM3对江淮流域夏季降水强度的模拟偏差为-60．6％,但降尺度后SDSM—CGCM3的偏差仅为-6％,说明降尺度模型SDSM的确有“增加值”的作用。21世纪末期在未来SRESA2情景下,对于极端温度,无论Had．CM3还是CGCM3模式驱动统计模型,江淮流域所有代表台站,各个季节的最高、最低温度都显著增加,且以夏季最为显著,增幅在2—4℃;与之相应霜冻天数将大幅减少,热浪天数大幅增多,各站点冬季霜冻天数减少幅度为5—25d,夏季热浪天数增加幅度为4～14d;对于极端降水指数,在两个不同耦合模式HadCM3和CGCM3驱动下的变化尤其是变化幅度的一致性比温度差,但大部分站点各个季节极端强降水事件将增多,强度增强,SDSM—HadCM3和SDSM-CGCM3预估的夏季极端降水贡献率将分别增加26％和27％。     

几次强震及震前震中附近地区中小地震与地球自转的关系

本文分析了1975年海城7.3级、 2008年汶川8.0级和2004年印尼苏门答腊9.0级地震与地球自转的关系, 给出了震前震中附近地区中小地震与地球自转之间较好的相关关系。 结果对深入认识地球自转与地震发生之间的关系具有裨益。     

沉积物再悬浮对浮游动物群落结构影响的模拟实验

沉积物再悬浮是浅水湖泊的重要特征之一.通过模拟实验,比较不同再悬浮程度下浮游动物群落结构的变化,以探讨沉积物再悬浮对浮游动物的影响.结果显示,不同处理下总悬浮物与叶绿素a浓度差异显著.再悬浮组中枝角类简弧象鼻溞(Bosmina coregoni)、角突网纹溞(Ceriodaphnia cornuta)和轮虫占优势,而对照组中大型枝角类溞属(Daphniasp.)占优势,再悬浮使浮游动物群落组成趋于小型化.不同再悬浮条件下隆线溞(Daphnia carinata)、简弧象鼻溞(Bosmina coregoni)和轮虫的丰度差异显著,角突网纹溞(Ceriodaphnia cornuta)和桡足类丰度差异不显著.总悬浮物浓度与轮虫和简弧象鼻溞丰度显著正相关,与隆线溞丰度显著负相关,与其它浮游动物种群丰度无显著相关性.本研究显示,沉积物再悬浮是决定浮游动物群落结构变化的重要过程之一.     

成都盆地南缘与新构造运动有关的河道演变及其对沉积作用影响初步探讨

本文利用2002年的ETM＋图像和该地区1：25万DEM数据,采用计算机图像处理和目视解译相结合的方法,辅以野外实测数据、历史资料进行综合分析,对该地区河道的演变特征和新构造进行详细解译。基本查清了新近系以来该地区河道的发展演变历程,岷江和青衣江都存在很大幅度的河道迁移现象,综合研究发现,河道迁移与该地区新构造运动密切相关。