Probabilistic evaluation of tunnel face stability in spatially random soils using sparse polynomial chaos expansion with global sensitivity analysis

The sparse polynomial chaos expansion is employed to perform a probabilistic analysis of the tunnel face stability in the spatially random soils. A shield tunnel under compressed air is considered which implies that the applied pressure is uniformly distributed on the tunnel face. Two sets of failure mechanisms in the context of the limit analysis theory with respect to the frictional and the purely cohesive soils are used to calculate the required face pressure. In the case of the frictional soils, the cohesion and the friction angle are modeled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields; for the purely cohesive soils, the cohesion and the unit weight are modeled as two anisotropic independent lognormal random fields. The influences of the spatial variability and of the cross-correlation between the cohesion and the friction angle on the probability density function of the required face pressure, on the sensitivity index and on the failure probability are discussed. The obtained results show that the spatial variability has an important influence on the probability density function as well as the failure probability, but it has a negligible impact on the Sobol’s index.     

北京一次突发性降雪的云场结构特征分析

本文对利用三重嵌套的高分辨率中尺度模式对北京一次突发性降雪过程进行了数值模拟。重点分析伴随降雪过程的云各微物理含量构成和云场三维图像的演变特征,初步分析表明：此次降雪过程中云中的主要成份是冰晶粒子,雪其它粒子的含量较少,冰晶粒子含量随时间呈由高空向低空增加的趋势,它在降雪过程中起重要作用;云的三维结构图也清楚地反映云顶有不断降低和向下伸展过程,这与冰晶粒子的增长和沉降有关。     

Research on the Seismotectonic Setting in Beibu Gulf Waters

In this paper we discuss the seismogenic structures of the two earthquakes occurring in the Beibu Gulf waters,based on the investigation of geological structure,faults,geophysical fields,seismicity and earthquake focal mechanism.The results show that the NEE trending faults along the boundary of the Wushi depression are the dominating seismogenic structures,and the NW trending faults are the key factors of stress concentration.The results also show that high seismicity has a significant relationship with the late Cenozoic deposition center in the Beibu Gulf,and their NE-NEE trending boundary faults are important to the identification of seismogenic structures.The special arcuate fault segment or the intersection point of the NW trending faults and NE-NEE trending boundary faults is a possible location of future earthquakes.     

暴雨过程的中尺度分析

利用１９９８年６月１３日００时－１４日１４时地降水量,地面风场,高空雷达回波资料,被步分析了中尺度过程的演变特征,同中尺度系统是造成暴雨的直接原因并统计出物量,中低压环流活动与暴雨的对应关系。在大尺度环流形势下,中尺度辐合线和地形作用为局地大暴雨提供了有利条件。     

玄武质岩石的单颗粒锆石U-Pb年龄谱

报道了托云、东浮山、羊角、雪花山和山旺5处新生代玄武岩的SHRIMP锆石U-Pb测年结果。位于西南天山造山带的托云新生代玄武岩的14个测点年龄值十分发散,最大值与最小值分别为857.1和203.4Ma,它们与其余4件玄武岩样品49个SHRIMP锆石测点年龄一同构筑了涵盖各个地质时期几乎贯穿整个地质时间的复杂年龄谱。位于华北克拉通中部区域南太行山造山带的东浮山、羊角和雪花山新生代玄武岩3件样品累计36个锆石测点形成的锆石年龄谱相对简单,其中35个测点的年龄集中在1719.9～2641.6Ma,唯一的古生代年龄(311.3Ma)出现在雪花山玄武岩7.1测点。位于华北克拉通东部裂谷带内山旺玄武岩6件样品27个测点的单颗粒锆石年龄构筑的锆石年龄谱形成3个集中时间段,分别为新太古代—古元古代(2595.4～1852.2Ma)、古生代(385.8～271.1Ma)和中生代(109.4Ma)。3个年龄谱中大部分单颗粒锆石U-Pb年龄均能在各自所处区域内发现与之对应的岩浆-热事件,部分单颗粒锆石年龄可能暗示所在区域至今未发现的岩浆热事件,托云、东浮山-羊角-雪花山、山旺新生代玄武岩的复杂单颗粒锆石年龄谱再造了各自所处区域的地质演化史。3个锆石年龄谱的复杂程度与各自区域地表出露岩浆岩的规模和期次复杂程度相关,天山造山带内岩浆岩发育,托云玄武岩锆石年龄普最复杂,记录了天山造山带的演化,而华北克拉通中部区域南太行山造山带地表零星出露岩浆岩,东浮山-羊角-雪花山玄武岩的锆石年龄普最简单。处于后期遭受破坏改造的华北克拉通东部裂谷带内的山旺玄武岩的单颗粒锆石年龄谱,其复杂程度明显低于托云玄武岩的年龄谱,而又高于东浮山-羊角-雪花山玄武岩的年龄谱。鉴于玄武质岩浆同化混染围岩过程中能量消耗和地球化学印记以及玄武质岩浆上升的耗时限制,认为托云、东浮山、羊角、雪花山和山旺新生代玄武岩中具有复杂年龄信息的锆石捕掳晶不是玄武质岩浆在快速上升过程中从围岩中捕获的,而是在岩石圈拆沉过程中进入软流圈地幔中,随着具原生岩浆性质的玄武质岩浆喷发到达地表。     

湘中锑(金)矿床成矿物质来源——Ⅰ.微量元素及其实验地球化学证据

为了查明湘中盆地中-低温梯（金）矿床的成矿物质来源，文章应用高分辨率ICP-MS、ICP-AES等方法对岩石与矿石进行了系统测定，并结合作者以往分析数据和实验地球化学结果，对该区盆地及周边基底地层与矿床中的微量元素分布特征及其水/岩反应效应进行了综合分析和系统研究。结果表明：Sb、Au等成矿元素在元古界基底碎屑岩中具有高的背景含量，在近似成矿条件下的水/岩反应实验中，成矿元素的淋出率达20%～90%，元古界基底碎屑岩中的金（锑、钨）矿床的周围蚀变围岩中出现明显的金负异常区。而盆地内泥盆系统地层中的高锑含量仅局限于锑矿床（化）及其蚀变围岩中；湘中锑（金）矿床中的矿石与基底碎屑岩具有相似的稀土元素球粒陨石标准化配分曲线特征，以上微量元素地球化学特征充分证明该区锑（金）矿床锑、金等成矿物质主要来源于元古界底碎屑岩。     

富蕴水磨沟探槽的孢粉组合特征及其意义

本文应用孢粉分析对富蕴水磨沟探槽的地层年代和古环境进行了探讨,认为富蕴地区在新冰期第一期活动中气候干净,为寒冻荒漠植被;在大西洋期为暖干气候,生长了草原化荒漠植被;在其后的新冰期活动中为冷湿气候,发育了灌丛草原植被。结合新疆特殊的地理条件,将上述环境演变过程与国内外全新世气候波动研究结果相比较,并参考有关(14)~C数据,作者认为该探槽中发现的第一次古地震活动应晚于6000a,B.P,第二次古地震活动似应发生于2500a,B.P之后。     

Intrinsic sample methods for mineral exploration and resource assessment

We report on an objective methodology, referred to as intrinsic sample methodology, for the delineation of exploration target areas or resource areas for assessment. Important features of the methodology include (1) identification of recognition criteria for critical genetic factors, (2) synthesis of new variables from enhanced geodata, (3) estimation of logit probability models, and (4) cutting of estimated logit probabilities to delineate exploration targets or resource areas. The methodology is demonstrated on the Walker Lake quadrangle of Nevada and California.     

包头市昆都仑水库增雨燃烧炉首次作业的效果分析

通过2009年5月27日包头市昆都仑水库地面增雨燃烧炉作业实况和多普勒天气雷达速度、713天气雷达回波及区域地面自动雨量站资料的对比分析,发现在深厚的层状云系中,适时进行地面燃烧炉增雨作业,可增强区域降水量,提高增雨作业能力。分析结果为指导包头地区地面燃烧炉布点和增雨作业提供了科学依据。