Surface pressure profiles, vortex structure and initialization for hurricane prediction. Part II: numerical simulations of track, structure and intensity

In part 1 of this study, an assessment of commonly used surface pressure profiles to represent TC structures was made. Using the Australian tropical cyclone model, the profiles are tested in case studies of high-resolution prediction of track, structure and intensity. We demonstrate that: (1) track forecasts are mostly insensitive to the imposed structure; (2) in some cases [here Katrina (2005)], specification of vortex structure can have a large impact on prediction of structure and intensity; (3) the forecast model mostly preserves the characteristics of the initial structure and so correct structure at t?=?0 is a requirement for improved structure forecasting; and (4) skilful prediction of intensity does not guarantee skilful prediction of structure. It is shown that for Ivan (2004) the initial structure from each profile is preserved during the simulations, and that markedly different structures can have similar intensities. Evidence presented suggests that different initial profiles can sometimes change the timing of intensification. Thus, correct initial vortex structure is an essential ingredient for more accurate intensity and structure prediction.     

Interaction Between Typhoon and Western Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone:Data Analyses and Numerical Experiments

Three kinds of typhoons with distinct tracks are sorted based on a set of typhoon data from 1958 to 1998. The results of composite analyses confirm that different typhoon tracks correspond to different patterns of the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific （SAWP）. When the tracks are westward, the SAWP is strong, with a zonal form, and stretches westward; when the tracks are recurving, the main body of the SAWP shifts eastward and breaks near 160~E; and when the tracks are northward, the SAWP is located far east of its normal position. Based on the above result, two different initial fields are configured, one has a zonal and strong SAWP, and the other has a meridional and weak SAWP. By using the GOALS R42L9 climate model, a temperature disturbance is added into these two different initial fields to force the formation of a typhoon. Westward and northward tracked typhoons are well simulated, thus verifying that different patterns of the SAWP have different effects on typhoon tracks. Results also show that typhoons can induce barotropic Rossby waves propagating to the mid and high latitudes. Under different background zonal flows, the wave trains triggered by the typhoons of westward and northward tracks are also different, and their effects on the mid and high latitude circulations and the SAWP are different. Compared to a n.orthward tracked typhoon, a westward tracked typhoon is able to induce positive geopotential height anomaly to its north and northwest, resulting in the SAWP strengthening and developing westward.     

纬向平均副热带高压和Hadley环流下沉支的关系

气象学者传统地认为副热带高压带是Ｈａｄｌｅｙ环流的下沉支形成的。鉴于冬 (夏 )季Ｈａｄｌｅｙ环流最强 (弱 )时副热带高压反而最 (弱 )强的事实 ,Ｈｏｓｋｉｎｓ[1] 对经典理论提出质疑。吴国雄等[2 ,3] 指出副热带高压 (下文中称副高 )的形成主要是加热的垂直非均匀造成的。刘屹岷等[4 ,5] 发现夏季 5 0 0ｈＰａ月平均图上 165°Ｅ以西的西太平洋副高以上升运动为特征。一般来说 ,受副高控制天气晴好 ,这与西太平洋副高以上升运动为特征是否有矛盾。为此 ,我们首先研究气候纬向平均副高的动力问题 ,结果表明Ｈａｄｌｅｙ环流和副高形成…     

SEC储量动态评估方法在煤层气田中的应用——以鄂尔多斯盆地韩城区块为例

目前,煤层气田的SEC储量评估均采用动态评估法,在评估过程中存在参数取值多样化、计算结果不一致等问题,为了解决这个问题,以鄂尔多斯盆地韩城区块为例,综合运用一系列与煤层气的生产特点相适应的评估方法,优化各种参数,总结递减规律。研究结果表明：根据构造和地质条件划分地质单元,在此基础上按照开发效果划分评估单元能够客观合理地分析煤层气田的递减规律;综合运用指数递减、双曲递减、调和递减等动态储量递减方法建立典型曲线,可以用来检验储量评估结果的合理性;对于一个单元进行储量评估过程中,递减率的取值要充分考虑后期增产措施的影响。     

1998年7月南亚高压影响西太平洋副热带高压短期变异的过程和机制

利用逐日NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对1998年7月二度梅期间南亚高压影响西太平洋副热带高压短期变异的过程和作用机制进行了诊断.结果发现,梅雨间歇期副高单体异常向西、向北发展期间,高层南亚高压曾离开高原上空东移(伸)至120°E以东;南亚高压返回高原上空时,中层副热带高压减弱南落,两者有相向然后相背移动的趋势.进一步研究这两个高压系统密切关联的原因又发现,南亚高压通过两种作用机制影响中层副高的短期变异南亚高压在东移过程中,高空负涡度平流动力强迫的下沉运动在中层副高区域产生辐散,从动力上影响副高内的负涡度发展;另一方面,强烈下沉运动伴随的绝热加热效应又有利于纬向温度梯度维持,有利于南北风发展,从热力上间接影响西太副高的发展.最后,利用R42L9/LASG大气环流模式进行敏感性数值试验,通过改变高空南亚高压东移产生的负涡度效应,发现中层副热带高压区确有强迫产生的动力辐散和绝热加热出现,并对应副高的异常加强,成功地验证了诊断所揭示的1998年夏季副高短期变异过程的两种机制.     

陕北地区黄土节理对公路边坡稳定性的影响

黄土节理主要分为原生节理、构造节理、风化节理和卸荷节理。陕北地区主要发育原生节理和构造节理,原生节理多分布在马兰黄土中,较密集,延伸长;构造节理多分布在离石黄土中,方向性强,区域性强。节理对边坡稳定性的影响因产状不同而不同。与边坡走向一致的顺坡斜节理对边坡稳定性影响较大,垂直节理影响较小;走向与边坡走向垂直和斜交的节理对边坡稳定性影响较小。多组节理在平面内可组成层面棋盘格式和X格式;在空间内可组成板状结构体、楔椎状结构体和柱状结构体。不同形状的结构体对边坡产生不同影响。最后,针对对边坡稳定性影响最大的斜节理,讨论了沿构造(斜)节理面产生边坡土体滑落的可能性的核算方法。     

新疆洛浦县比孜里墓地出土食物遗存的科技分析

食物的加工和利用反映了古人对动植物资源的利用,而欧亚大陆东西部地区有着不同的饮食文化习惯。新疆长期以来是东西方文化交流的枢纽,是东西方饮食文化的汇聚之地。比孜里墓地位于新疆塔里木盆地南沿洛浦县,属于古于阗国的管辖范围,是丝绸之路上的重要节点之一;该墓地出土的汉晋时期食品残留物为探讨当时饮食文化提供了难得的研究材料。本文通过红外光谱分析、植物微体化石、碳氮稳定同位素分析和蛋白质组学等多种手段对出土的一个疑似食物残留物进行综合研究。结果显示,比孜里墓地出土的疑似食物遗存应为面食,其制作工艺为混合黍面和少量大麦面粉,并添加少许肉类,烤制而成。原始形状可能为圆形,与山普拉墓地兽皮袋出土样品、新疆现代肉馕相近。在面食中添加肉食可以改善口味、提高营养,可见汉晋时期先民面食制作的讲究。同时,也为先民的动植物利用、生计方式提供了丰富信息。

     

ISS加固土的微观结构及其强度特征

通过化学分析、SEM电镜扫描分析、无侧限抗压强度等实验,研究ISS加固粉土质砂和砂质低液限粉土的微观结构及其强度特征,结果表明:ISS的掺人,使土体易于压实,孔隙体积减小,密实度提高,从而提高土的强度。ISS加固土中适量掺人水泥,能生长出纤维状矿物,充填在土颗粒之间的孔隙中,使加固土强度和抗变形能力得到显著提高。     

X射线荧光光谱法测定大洋多金属结核中多种元素

采用粉末压片和熔融法制样,理论α系数和散射线内标法校正元素间的吸收 增强效应,在３０８０Ｅ２型Ｘ射线荧光光谱仪上测定多金属结核中的Ｎａ２Ｏ、ＭｇＯ、Ａｌ２Ｏ３、ＳｉＯ２、Ｐ２Ｏ５、Ｓ、Ｃｌ、Ｋ２Ｏ、ＣａＯ、ＴｉＯ２、Ｖ、Ｃｒ、Ｍｎ、Ｆｅ、Ｃｏ、Ｎｉ、Ｃｕ、Ｚｎ、Ｇａ、Ａｓ、Ｓｅ、Ｂｒ、Ｎｂ、Ｚｒ、Ｙ、Ｒｂ、Ｓｒ、Ｐｂ、Ｂａ、Ｍｏ、Ｔｌ、Ｌａ、Ｃｅ、Ｎｄ、Ｔｈ、Ｕ和Ｗ等３７种组分。方法经大洋多金属结核标准物质分析验证,其分析结果与标准值符合,具有较好的准确度。经１０次重复测定同一样品,方法的精度（ＲＳＤ,ｎ     

谱模式中负地形的处理与东亚副热带气候的模拟

谱模式中负地形对气候模拟有严重干扰。本文重新处理IAP/LASG GOALS模式地形及海陆分布,通过对比新旧地形强迫下数值试验的结果,揭示了原有GOALS/LASG气候模式对西太平洋副高模拟中存在的系统偏差与（30oN,120oE）长江口附近的负地形及纬向地形谷有关。与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和CMAP综合分析资料比较表明,新的地形方案减弱了负地形效应,使东亚气候,如夏季西太平洋副热带高压及夏季降水的模拟得到明显改善。