A Climatological Perspective on Extratropical Synoptic-Scale Transient Eddy Activity Response to Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones

An observational study focusing on the contribution of tropical cyclones(TCs)that form over the western North Pacific(WNP)to the synoptic-scale transient eddy activity(STEA)over the North Pacific during the boreal autumn and early winter in the period 1979–2019 is presented in this paper.Statistical results show that WNP TCs entering the midlatitudinal North Pacific provide significant positive effects on the pentad mean strength of STEA,which is primarily concentrated over the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extensions(KOE)and regions from east of Japan to 160°W in the lower and midto-upper troposphere,respectively.TC intensity is highly indicative of the subsequent STEA with a correlation coefficient of 0.37/0.33/0.45 at 300 hPa/500 hPa/850 hPa exceeding the 99%confidence level for the period 1979–2019.The strength of STEA in the upper troposphere associated with TCs presents a more significant linear growth with TC intensity than that at the mid-to-lower levels after the cyclones enter the KOE region,suggesting that the impact of TCs on STEA gradually increases with height.Further analyses reveal that the contribution of TCs accounts for 4%–6%of the total STEA change over the KOE region during the late autumn and early winter.In addition,the influence of TCs on STEA experienced an interdecadal decrease from the early 2000 s through the early 2010 s.     

Multiscale analysis of Asian Monsoon over the past 640 ka

The empirical mode decomposition(EMD) method is used to re-analyse the high-resolution and precisely-dated stalagmite record from Chinese caves over the past 640 ka. Results show that(1) the variation in the Asian Monsoon can be completely decomposed into ten quasiperiod oscillations, among which the precession and semiprecession band oscillations are the most prominent periodicities, with contribution rates of 31.1% and 30.7%, respectively;(2) the cross-spectrum analysis of the semiprecession component and bi-hemisphere insolation(BHI) are strongly correlated, indicating an amplified response of precipitation and temperature variability to the interhemispheric insolation in the low-latitude regions, thus further affecting the intensity of the Asian Monsoon;(3) on millennial timescales, obvious oscillations at the 5 ka and 1–2 ka bands roughly correspond to the classical Bond and Dansgaard-Oeschger(DO) cycles. Additionally, a strong correlation is found between the detrended stalagmite δ18 O records and Ca/Sr sequence from the North Atlantic(especially at the 5 ka band). This result means that the 5 ka cycle is characteristic of the glacial-interglacial cycle since the middle and late Pleistocene and may imply that climate change on the millennial timescale is the result of an interaction between global ice volume and insolation.     

Numerical Experiments on the Spin-up Time for Seasonal-Scale Regional Climate Modeling

In this paper,the numerical experiments on the issue of spin-up time for seasonal-scale regional climate modeling were conducted with the newly Regional Climate Model (RegCM3),in the case of the abnormal climate event during the summer of 1998 in China.To test the effect of spin-up time on the regional climate simulation results for such abnormal climate event,a total of 11 experiments were performed with different spin-up time from 10 days to 6 months,respectively.The simulation results show that,for the meteorological variables in the atmosphere,the model would be running in"climate mode"after 4-8-day spin-up time,then, it is independent of the spin-up time basically,and the simulation errors are mainly caused by the model's failure in describing the atmospheric processes over the model domain.This verifies again that the regional climate modeling is indeed a lateral boundary condition problem as demonstrated by earlier research work. The simulated mean precipitation rate over each subregion is not sensitive to the spin-up time,but the precipitation scenario is somewhat different for the experiment with different spin-up time,which shows that there exists the uncertainty in the simulation to precipitation scenario,and such a uncertainty exhibits more over the areas where heavy rainfall happened.Generally,for monthly-scale precipitation simulation,a spin-up time of 1 month is enough,whereas a spin-up time of 2 months is better for seasonal-scale one. Furthermore,the relationship between the precipitation simulation error and the advancement/withdrawal of East Asian summer monsoon was analyzed.It is found that the variability of correlation coefficient for precipitation is more significant over the areas where the summer monsoon is predominant.Therefore,the model's capability in reproducing precipitation features is related to the heavy rainfall processes associated with the advancement/withdrawal of East Asian summer monsoon,which suggests that it is necessary to develop a more reliable parameterization scheme to capture the convective precipitation of heavy rainfall pro- cesses associated with the activities of East Asian summer monsoon,so as to improve the climate modeling over China.     

2019年6月西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置异常的机制分析

以2019年6月为例,采用统计和诊断分析方法研究了夏季西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置的变化特征,并分析了其位置较6月气候平均状态偏南的可能机制。结果表明：虽然2019年6月西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置总体偏南,但其经向位置异常存在纬向差异,在150°E以西区域,西太平洋副热带高压脊线平均位置偏南,而在150°~160°E区域内,脊线位置反而偏北。西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置变化与其附近异常涡度的经向分布有很好的对应关系,2019年6月西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置出现异常的原因在于其附近出现的异常扰动引起的异常涡度,而由于异常涡度分布存在纬向差异,造成西太平洋副热带高压脊线经向位置异常也出现了纬向差异。经过尺度分析简化的全型涡度方程的诊断发现,异常非绝热加热在导致2019年6月西太平洋副热带高压位置总体偏南的过程中起到了关键作用,而动力因子则对150°E以东的西太平洋副热带高压脊线向北偏移的贡献更大。     

Impact of initial storm intensity and size on the simulation of tropical cyclone track and western Pacific subtropical high extent

Typhoon Megi, the 13th typhoon of the 2010 typhoon season, was selected for case study by utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Twelve sensitivity experiments with various initial tropical cyclone (TC) intensities and sizes were conducted to investigate their impacts on the simulation of typhoon track. Interaction between TC and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was also analyzed to explore the mechanism for the impact on TC track of the initial TC intensity and size. Numerical results indicate that the simulated TC size and TC track are sensitive to initial TC intensity and size. Stronger initial TC intensity and larger initial TC size often lead to larger simulated TC size and make TC turn northward earlier. Further analysis suggests that, with the increase of initial TC intensity and size, more air mass enters into the TC region, which subsequently reduces the extent of WPSH. As a result, the steering flow changes significantly and eventually causes the TC to turn northward earlier. The present study confirms that the initial TC intensity and size have certain influences on the TC track simulation, which demonstrates the importance of accurate initial condition for successful simulation of the TC intensity and TC track. Moreover, it also deepens our understanding of the interaction between TC and WPSH, provides helpful clues for the TC track change study, and discusses the future directions for improvement of TC track forecast.     

Further study on the effect of buffer zone size on regional climate modeling

In this study, the effect of buffer zone size on the performance of a regional climate model (RCM) was investigated. In contrast to carrying out simulations where the buffer zone expands inward, numerical experiments were performed with the buffer zone expanded outward, which ensured an objective comparison on the effect of buffer zone sizes. Case simulations on the abnormal 1998 East Asian summer monsoon demonstrated that an RCM’s performance depended on the outward expansion of the buffer zone. Moreover, a broader buffer zone is able to improve large-scale circulation simulation in the upper troposphere; however, a narrower buffer zone shows better performance in the middle and lower troposphere. Numerical experiments show that the performance of RCMs in simulating the seasonal evolution of rainbands over eastern China is not completely consistent with that of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). A possible reason why the configuration with the buffer zone expanding inward can improve the extension/withdrawal of the summer monsoon and the associated precipitation evolution over eastern China is discussed.     

社区尺度社会—生态系统适应途径述评

全球变化背景下,社区作为社会—生态系统的基础单元,既面临着可能或已经出现的冲击性干扰,也发生着系统结构和功能的趋势性变化。以社区为基础的适应(community-based adaptation, CBA)便为社区缓解变化甚至抓住时机转型提供了一种有效的应对方式。为了把握当前社区社会—生态系统适应途径的机理,论文梳理了近20 a来关于社区社会—生态系统适应的研究。在CBA过程中,资助机构、权力机构、研究机构和执行者是参与行动的主体。适应主体所要适应的对象有冲击性的一阶影响,也有伴生的二阶影响。适应途径具有层次,对应的步骤包括明晰适应对象、清算适应资产、评估适应能力、摸清适应需求、确立适应目的、划分适应阶段、制定适应措施和采取适应措施8个步骤。物质障碍、资源障碍和社会障碍的负向作用则会诱发适应不良。基于此,论文提出优化以社区为基础的适应途径的研究方向展望,包括完善监测和评估体系以搭建长期社区适应的指标框架、以社会—生态网络为抓手强化多主体决策和促进基于自然的解决方案整体提升社会—生态系统适应能力。     

Characteristics and mechanisms study of abnormal meridional movement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in July 2020

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The climate in China is extremely abnormal in July 2020, which is largely attributed to the anomalous activities of the Western Pacific Subtropical High...     

The transfer of oxygen isotopic signals from precipitation to drip water and modern calcite on the seasonal time scale in Yongxing Cave,central China

Stable isotope data of precipitation (δ¹⁸O_p and deuterium excess), drip water (δ¹⁸O_d), and modern calcite precipitates (δ¹⁸O_c and δ¹³C_c) from Yongxing Cave, central China, are presented, with monthly sampling intervals from June 2013 to September 2016. Moderate correlations between the monthly variation of δ¹⁸O_p values (from ??11.5 to ??0.7‰) and precipitation amount (r = ??0.59, n?=?34, p?<?0.01) and deuterium excess (r?=?0.39, n?=?31, p?<?0.01) imply a combined effect of changes in precipitation amount and atmospheric circulation. At five drip sites, the δ¹⁸O_d values have a much smaller variability (from ??9.1 to ??7.5‰), without seasonal signals, probably a consequence of the mixing in the karst reservoir with a deep aquifer. The mean δ¹⁸O_d value (??8.4‰) for all drip waters is significantly more negative than the mean δ¹⁸O_p value (??6.9‰) weighted by precipitation amount, but close to the wet season (May to September) mean value (??8.3‰), suggesting that a threshold of precipitation amount must be exceeded to provide recharge. Calculation based on the equilibrium fractionation factor indicates that the δ¹⁸O_c values are not in isotopic equilibrium with their corresponding drip waters, with a range of disequilibrium effects from 0.4 to 1.4‰. The δ¹⁸O_c and δ¹³C_c values generally increase progressively away from the locus of precipitation on glass plates. The disequilibrium effects in the cave are likely caused by progressive calcite precipitation and CO₂ degassing related to a high gradient of CO₂ concentration between drip waters and cave air. Our study provides an important reference to interpret δ¹⁸O_c records from the monsoon region of China.