A study of long-term climate change in a simple seasonal nonlinear climate model

Solar radiation cycles, earth-orbital changes, and continental drift drive long to very long term (10³–10⁶ years) climatic changes. Lin and North used the stationary solutions of a simple energy balance model (EBM) to study the equilibrium climatic stages. In this paper, we study time dependent solutions and, in particular, transition processes. We make use of two time scales: a seasonal cycle (fast variation) and a long term time change (slow variation). Variations over short time scales are solved using a Fourier transform in time and long term variations are studied using a 4th order Runge-Kutta method. The energy balance equation is a parabolic type equation and it is well posed. Climate changes depend mainly on external forcing and the state of the climate is determined by the slow time scale forcing. In other words, transitions from one climate stage (snow-covered) to another (snow-free) at bifurcation points are monotonic, despite 20% to 50% shortperiod random fluctuations in the solar energy. This smooth transition is especially noticeable when the land bands lie close to the north pole (70° N to 90° N) or at high latitudes (50° N to 75° N).Now at Applied Physics Laboratory, The Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD 20723, USA     

Simplified mechanical subgrade model for dynamic response analysis of shallow foundations

Baranov proposed an approach for the treatment of the subgrade in the dynamic response analysis of a rigid foundation which is partially embedded. The approach is based on a Winkler approximation together with wave equation solutions developed for simplified conditions. The paper extends and modifies Baranov's approach so as to be applicable to surface foundation problems, by introducing an internal coupling mechanism. Closed form expressions are presented for the steady state harmonic responses of a massless rigid footing and an elastic beam on the surface of the presented subgrade model. These expressions can accommodate the inhomogeneity of the subgrade in a straightforward manner. The model is found to perform well in reproducing the continuous subgrade medium behaviour. The dynamic responses of structures are often highly dependent on the subgrade modelling and therefore great caution is needed in modelling the subgrade.     

Aqueous oxidation-reduction kinetics associated with coupled electron-cation transfer from iron-containing silicates at 25°C

Mechanisms and kinetics of aqueous $\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+2}}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+3}}$ oxidation-reduction and dissolved O₂ interaction in the presence of augite, biotite and hornblende were studied in oxic and anoxic solutions at pH 1–9 at 25°C. Oxidation of surface iron on the minerals coincided with both surface release of Fe⁺² and by reduction of Fe⁺³ in solution. Reaction with iron silicates consumed dissolved oxygen at a rate that increased with decreasing pH. Both Fe⁺³ and O₂ consumption were shown to be controlled by coupled electron-cation transfer reactions of the form;

$\text{[}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+2}}\text{,}\text{1}\text{zM}{}^{\mathrm{+z}}\text{]}{}_{\mathrm{silicate}}\text{+}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+3}}\text{→ [}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+3}}\text{]}{}_{\mathrm{silicate}}\text{+}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+2}}\text{+}\text{1}\text{zM}{}^{\mathrm{+z}}$

and

$\text{[}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+2}}\text{,}\text{1}\text{zM}{}^{\mathrm{+z}}\text{]}{}_{\mathrm{silicate}}\text{+}\text{H}{}^{\mathrm{+}}\text{+}\text{1}\text{4}\text{O}{}_2\text{→ [}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+3}}\text{]}{}_{\mathrm{silicate}}\text{+}\text{1}\text{zM}{}^{\mathrm{+z}}\text{+}\text{1}\text{2}\text{H}{}_2\text{O}$

where M is a cation of charge +z. The spontaneous reduction of aqueous Fe⁺³in the presence of precipitated Fe(OH)₃bracketed the surface oxidation standard half cell between +0.33 and +0.52 volts. Concurrent hydrolysis reactions involving cation release from the iron silicates were suppressed by the above reactions. Calculated oxidation depths in the minerals varied between 12 and 80Å and were apparently controlled by rates of solid-state cation diffusion.     

Changes to the groundwater system, from 1888 to present, in a highly-urbanized coastal area in Hong Kong, China

Historical groundwater levels in a coastal region of Hong Kong Island (China) were reviewed and compared with data collected recently to reveal changes to the groundwater regime over the last century. The coastal springs and seeps have disappeared and the lower boundary of the seepage zone has moved uphill. Groundwater was found to be flowing upward along the boundary of natural slopes and urbanized areas. Artesian flows were commonly noted in the deep piezometers in the lower urbanized areas. Moreover, an overall rise in water levels in a 10-year period was observed in the urbanized areas, except in areas with good drainage. Extensive urbanization since the 1950s has included large-scale land reclamation, deep foundations of high-rise buildings, an underground transport system, water mains and horizontal drains in slopes; the effect has been a slow but gradual increase in the water level of the hillslope groundwater system. Further urbanization activities such as the westward extension of the underground transport system and new major drainage systems in the slopes, should be assessed for possible further changes to the groundwater system. The results presented here may serve as reference for other highly-urbanized coastal areas in the world.     

The impacts of economic structure on China’s carbon dioxide emissions: an analysis with reference to other East Asian economies

A change in economic structure influences the total energy consumption as well as CO₂ emissions of a country, given the inherent difference in levels of energy intensity and energy fuel mix of different economic sectors. Its significance has been recognized in recent literature on China’s emission mitigation which could arguably raise China’s mitigation potential and thus the possibility of keeping the 2-degree trajectory on track. This article utilizes the past trend of economic structural change of five East Asian developed economies to project the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China in the coming decades. A special delineation of the economic sector is made, putting private consumption together with the three typical economic production sectors, to resolve the mismatch between the statistical data of energy consumption and economic production, in that residential energy consumption is typically merged into the tertiary sector, although it does not directly correspond to gross domestic product (GDP) output. Results suggest that the level of CO₂ emissions would be lower if China followed a development pathway emphasizing the development of the tertiary sector and continuously shrinking her secondary sector, making it possible for China to contribute more to global carbon mitigation. The impact from the rise of private consumption would be relatively insignificant compared to deindustrialization. In addition to continuous improvement in technology, economic structural change, which reduces carbon emission intensity, would be essential for China to be able to achieve the carbon emission level pledged in the Paris Agreement.

Key policy insights

• For China, significant economic structural reform, particularly deindustrialization, is necessary to achieve the goal of ‘peak emission by 2030’.

• Any additional contribution from China to the global effort to maintain a 2-degree trajectory would be limited – from a ‘fair-contribution’ perspective based on share of population or GDP – because the implied mitigation targets would be almost impossible to achieve.

• If developing countries follow the pathway of developed economies, particularly in developing energy-intensive industries, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions would significantly increase, reducing the possibility of keeping global temperature rise within the 2-degree Celsius benchmark.

     

The influence of radiation pressure on equipotential surfaces in high-temperature binary systems

In this paper we considered the effect of the radiation pressure from both components of the high-temperature binary systems in terms of a modified Roche potential. Usually, the parameters of radiation pressures ₁, ₂ can be written as a function of radiiR, effective temperatureT _eff , and massM of components. The simulation calculation shows that the positions of saddle pointsL ₁ ,L ₂ ,L ₃ and shape of critical surface are changed with radiation pressure factors ₁, ₂. Consequently, use of the conventional critical Roche model to estimate value of radii and mass ratios may be completely unwarranted if effective temperature of both componentsT _eff 30 000 K.These conclusions are applied to Wolf-Rayet binary systems V444 Cygni,v ₂ Velorum, and O-type binary system Y Cygni. The modified critical potentials are calculated and discussed.     

A Study of Concentration Fluctuations in Instantaneous Clouds Dispersing in the Atmospheric Surface Layer for Relative Turbulent Diffusion: Basic Descriptive Statistics

A series of tracer experiments studying the statistical properties of concentration fluctuations in clouds dispersing in the atmospheric surface layer is described and analyzed. Experiments were conducted at downwind fetches between about 200 and 1200 m, under a wide range of atmospheric conditions ranging from very unstable to moderately stable stratification. The present experiments have addressed basic requirements not met by past field experiments involving instantaneously released clouds; namely, the experiments provided repeat realizations of instantaneously released clouds measured with high-resolution concentration detectors, accompanied by the contemporaneous acquisition of high-quality meteorological and turbulence measurements.Extensive analyses are performed on the cloud concentration data in the framework of relative diffusion. Ensembles of cloud concentration realizations have been constructed. From these ensembles, crosswind and time profiles of the ensemble-mean concentration, concentration variance, ensemble-mean dosage, and dosage variance are obtained. The behaviour of the time profiles of the integral time scale of cloud concentration fluctuations is studied. The use of surface-layer similarity theory for the analysis of the downwind variation of a number of cloud quantities (e.g., cloud size and duration, cloud centre ensemble-mean concentration and dosage, cloud centre concentration and dosage variance, cloud centre integral time scale) is shown to be an effective basis for ordering these quantities. Furthermore, a number of approximate universal relationships describing the behavior of these cloud quantities has been derived. Finally, it is shown that the scaled crosswind and time profiles of ensemble-mean concentration and concentration variance as well as the scaled time profiles of the concentration fluctuation integral time scale exhibit self-similar forms that are independent of atmospheric stratification and downwind fetch.     

The effect of carbon tax on carbon emission abatement and GDP: a case study

Carbon tax has been advocated as an effective economic instrument for the abatement of CO₂ emission by various countries, including China, the world’s biggest carbon emission country. However, carbon emission abatement cannot be done while ignoring the impact on economic growth. A delicate balance needs to be achieved between the two to find an appropriate pathway for sustainable development. This paper applies a multi-objective optimization approach to analyze the impact of levying carbon tax on the energy-intensive sectors of Guangdong province in China under the constraint of emission reduction target. This approach allows us to evaluate carbon emission minimization while maximizing GDP. For policy analysis, we construct five scenarios for evaluation and optimal choice. The results of the analysis show that a lower initial carbon tax rate is not necessarily better, and that a carbon tax is an effective means to reduce CO₂ emissions while maintaining a certain level of GDP growth.     

Spatio-temporal variations in the diversity and abundance of commercially important Decapoda and Stomatopoda in subtropical Hong Kong waters

In subtropical Hong Kong, western waters (WW) are strongly influenced by the freshwater input from the Pearl River estuary, especially during summer monsoon, whereas eastern waters (EW) are predominantly influenced by oceanic currents throughout the year. Such hydrographical differences may lead to spatio-temporal differences in biodiversity of benthic communities. This study investigated the diversity and abundance of commercially important decapods and stomatopods in EW (i.e. Tolo Harbour and Channel) and WW (i.e. Tuen Mun and Lantau Island) of Hong Kong using monthly trawl surveys (August 2003–May 2005). In total, 22 decapod and nine stomatopod species were recorded. The penaeid Metapenaeopsis sp. and stomatopod Oratosquillina interrupta were the most abundant and dominant crustaceans in EW and WW, respectively. Both univariate and multivariate analyses showed that WW supported significantly higher abundance, biomass and diversity of crustaceans than EW, although there were significant between-site and within-site variations in community structure. Higher abundance and biomass of crustaceans were recorded in summer than winter. Such spatio-temporal variations could be explained by differences in the hydrography, environmental conditions and anthropogenic impacts between the two areas. Temporal patterns in the abundance–biomass comparison curves and negative W-statistics suggest that the communities have been highly disturbed in both areas, probably due to anthropogenic activities such as bottom trawling and marine pollution.