Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPCC AR5 earth system models

Climate Dynamics - We analyze for the first time all 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with explicit marine ecological modules to identify the common mechanisms involved in...     

First-Order Inconsistencies Caused by Rogue Trajectories

A theoretical requirement of the Interaction by Exchange with the Conditional Mean (IECM) micromixing model is that the mean concentration field produced by it must be consistent with the mean concentration field produced by a traditional Lagrangian stochastic (LS) marked particle model. We examine the violation of this requirement that occurs in a coupled LS–IECM model when unrealistically high particle velocities occur. No successful strategy was found to mitigate the effects of these rogue trajectories. It is our hope that this work will provide renewed impetus for investigation into rogue trajectories and methods to eliminate them from LS models.     

ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

Surface temperature, precipitation, specific humidity and wind anomalies associated with the warm and cold phases of ENSO simulated by WRF and HadRM are examined for the present and future decades. WRF is driven by ECHAM5 and CCSM3, respectively, and HadRM is driven by HadCM3. For the current decades, all simulations show some capability in resolving the observed warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns over the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for warm and cold ENSO. Differences in the regional simulations originate primarily from the respective driving fields. For the future decades, the warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns in association with ENSO are still represented in ECHAM5-WRF and HadRM. However, there are indications of changes in the ENSO teleconnection patterns for CCSM3-WRF in the future, with wet anomalies dominating in the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for both warm and cold ENSO, in contrast to the canonical patterns of precipitation anomalies. Interaction of anomalous wind flow with local terrain plays a critical role in the generation of anomalous precipitation over the western U.S. Anomalous dry conditions are always associated with anomalous airflow that runs parallel to local mountains and wet conditions with airflow that runs perpendicular to local mountains. Future changes in temperature and precipitation associated with the ENSO events in the regional simulations indicate varying responses depending on the variables examined as well as depending on the phase of ENSO.     

近年中国夏季降水变化特征分析

利用台站观测资料和卫星观测换算资料,分析了近年（2002-2004年）中国夏季日内降水量变化统计学特征,其结果是较为一致的。对于东部大部分地区,日内最强降水易出现在下午到傍晚,对于西部大部分地区易出现在夜晚到清晨。夏季降水以对流降水为主,降水大的地区对应潜热通量也大。由于受观测资料的限制,计算结果有待更多的观测资料来验证。     

Constraint energy minimizing generalized multiscale finite element method in the mixed formulation

This paper presents a novel mass-conservative mixed multiscale method for solving flow equations in heterogeneous porous media. The media properties (the permeability) contain multiple scales and high contrast. The proposed method solves the flow equation in a mixed formulation on a coarse grid by constructing multiscale basis functions. The resulting velocity field is mass-conservative on the fine grid. Our main goal is to obtain first-order convergence in terms of the mesh size which is independent of local contrast. This is achieved, first, by constructing some auxiliary spaces, which contain global information that cannot be localized, in general. This is built on our previous work on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM). In the auxiliary space, multiscale basis functions corresponding to small (contrast-dependent) eigenvalues are selected. These basis functions represent the high-conductivity channels (which connect the boundaries of a coarse block). Next, we solve local problems to construct multiscale basis functions for the velocity field. These local problems are formulated in the oversampled domain, taking into account some constraints with respect to auxiliary spaces. The latter allows fast spatial decay of local solutions and, thus, allows taking smaller oversampled regions. The number of basis functions depends on small eigenvalues of the local spectral problems. Moreover, multiscale pressure basis functions are needed in constructing the velocity space. Our multiscale spaces have a minimal dimension, which is needed to avoid contrast dependence in the convergence. The method’s convergence requires an oversampling of several layers. We present an analysis of our approach. Our numerical results confirm that the convergence rate is first order with respect to the mesh size and independent of the contrast.     

Field investigation of deformation characteristics and stress mobilisation of a soil slope

Stress mobilisation and deformation of a slope are important for engineers to carry out reliable design of retaining systems. However, most case histories reported mainly on the response of pore water pressure (PWP), whereas knowledge about the stress deformation characteristics of slope is limited. In this study, a saprolitic soil slope was instrumented to monitor not only the responses of PWP but also horizontal stress and horizontal displacement. To assist in the interpretation of field data, a series of laboratory tests was conducted to characterise volume change behaviour of the soil taken from the site, under the effects of both net stress and suction. During a rainstorm event when positive PWP built up, a remarkably large displacement of 20 mm was recorded between 5.5- and 6-m depths, and the top 5 m of the slope exhibited translational downslope movement. This caused an increase in Bishop’s effective horizontal stress by 350 %, which reached a peak value close to 40 % of a Bishop’s effective passive stress. During the subsequent dry season when suction was recovered, an upslope rebound of 10 mm was recorded. Comparison of field and laboratory data reveals that the rebound was attributed to suction-induced soil shrinkage. This rebound led to a decrease in the Bishop’s effective horizontal stress previously built up during the storm event.     

Linear and nonlinear vibration of non-uniform beams on two-parameter foundations using p-elements

A hierarchical finite element is presented for the geometrically nonlinear free and forced vibration of a non-uniform Timoshenko beam resting on a two-parameter foundation. Legendre orthogonal polynomials are used as enriching shape functions to avoid the shear-locking problem. With the enriching degrees of freedom, the accuracy of the computed results and the computational efficiency are greatly improved. The arc-length iterative method is used to solve the nonlinear eigenvalue equation. The computed results of linear and nonlinear vibration analyses show that the convergence of the proposed element is very fast with respect to the number of Legendre orthogonal polynomials used. Since the elastic foundation and the axial load applied at both ends of the beam affect the ratios of linear frequencies associated with the internal resonance, they influence the nonlinear vibration characteristics of the beam. The axial tensile stress of the beam in nonlinear vibration is investigated in this paper, and attention should be paid to the geometrically nonlinear vibration resulting in considerably large axial tensile stress in the beam.     

Computer aided analysis of rock slope stability

Summary A computer program is written in basic language on a micro-computer to carrying out kinematic analysis of rock slope stability. The program is capable of handling plane sliding, wedge sliding and toppling of rock slopes. Applications of the program are demonstrated by examples on opencast mine excavations and highway cuts. The computer output are presented in the form of tables and illustrations for ease of interpretation. As micro-computers are readily available in design offices nowadays, the present work provides an efficient means for engineers to analyse and design rock slope excavations.     

An Analytical Model For Threshold Crossing Rates Of Concentration Fluctuations In Dispersing Plumes

A simple analytical model is developed for the meanupcrossing rate of plume concentration fluctuations assuming that thisprocess can be well approximated by a lognormal process. The resultingexpression requires only the specification of the in-plume fluctuationintensity and in-plume Taylor micro-time scale and, hence, does notexplicitly involve the joint probability density function of theconcentration and its derivative. The analytical model provides agood fit to some field measurements of the mean upcrossing rate ina dispersing plume.