LH-moment estimation of Wakeby distribution with hydrological applications

This article discusses the method of higher-order L-moment (LH-moment) estimation for the Wakeby distribution (WAD), and describes and formulates details of parameter estimation using LH-moments for WAD. Monte Carlo simulation is performed, to illustrate the performance of the LH-moment method via heavy-tail quantiles (over all quantiles) using WAD. The LH-moment method proves as useful and effective as the L-moment approach in handling data that follow WAD, and it is then applied to annual maximum flood and wave height data.     

Simulated estimation of hydrological loads from GRACE

Four different basin functions are developed to estimate water storage variations within individual river basins from time variations in the Stokes coefficients now available from the GRACE mission. The four basin functions are evaluated using simulated data. Basin functions differ in how they minimize effects of three major error sources: measurement error; leakage of signal from one region to another; and errors in the atmospheric pressure field removed during GRACE data processing. Three of the basin functions are constant in time, while the fourth changes monthly using information about the signal (hydrologic and oceanic load variations). To test basin functions performance, Stokes coefficient variations from land and ocean models are synthesized, and error levels 50 and 100 times greater than pre-launch GRACE error estimate are used to corrupt them. Errors at 50 times pre-launch estimates approximately simulate current GRACE data. GRACE recovery of water storage variations is attempted for five different river basins (Amazon, Mississippi, Lena, Huang He and Oranje), representing a variety of sizes, locations, and signal variance. In the large basins (Amazon, Mississippi and Lena), water storage variations are recovered successfully at both error levels. As the error level increases from 50 to 100 times, basin functions change their shape, yielding less atmospheric pressure error and more leakage error. Amplitude spectra of measurement and atmospheric pressure errors have different shapes, but the best results are obtained when both are used in basin function design. When high-quality information about the signal is available, for example from climate and ocean models, changing the basin function each month can reduce leakage error and improve estimates of time variable water storage within basins.     

Numerical simulations of non-ergodic solute transport in three-dimensional heterogeneous porous media

Numerical simulations of non-ergodic transport of a non-reactive solute plume by steady-state groundwater flow under a uniform mean velocity, , were conducted in a three-dimensional heterogeneous and statistically isotropic aquifer. The hydraulic conductivity, K(x), is modeled as a random field which is assumed to be log-normally distributed with an exponential covariance. Significant efforts are made to reduce the simulation uncertainties. Ensemble averages of the second spatial moments of the plume and the plume centroid variances were simulated with 1600 Monte Carlo (MC) runs for three variances of log K, _Y²=0.09, 0.23, and 0.46, and a square source normal to of three dimensionless lengths. It is showed that 1600 MC runs are needed to obtain stabilized results in mildly heterogeneous aquifers of _Y²0.5 and that large uncertainty may exist in the simulated results if less MC runs are used, especially for the transverse second spatial moments and the plume centroid variance in transverse directions. The simulated longitudinal second spatial moment and the plume centroid variance in longitudinal direction fit well to the first-order theoretical results while the simulated transverse moments are generally larger than the first-order values. The ergodic condition for the second spatial moments is far from reaching in all cases simulated and transport in transverse directions may reach ergodic condition much slower than that in longitudinal direction.     

Forecast skill of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP GFS dynamical extended range forecasts

This study examines the forecast performance of tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in recent dynamical extended range forecast (DERF) experiments conducted with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) model. The present study extends earlier work by comparing prediction skill of the northern winter ISO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) between the current and earlier experiments. Prediction skill for the northern summer ISO is also investigated. Since the boreal summer ISO exhibits northward propagation as well as eastward propagation along the equator, forecast skill for both components is computed. For the 5-year period from 1 January, 1998 through 31 December, 2002, 30-day forecasts were made once a day. Compared to the previous DERF experiment, the current model has shown some improvements in forecasting the ISO during winter season so that the skillful forecasts (anomaly correlation>0.6) for upper-level zonal wind anomaly extend from the previous shorter-than 5 days out to 7 days lead-time. A similar level of skill is seen for both northward and eastward propagation components during the summer season as in the winter case. Results also show that forecasts from extreme initial states are more skillful than those from null phases for both seasons, extending the skillful range by 3–6 days. For strong ISO convection phases, the GFS model performs better during the summer season than during the winter season. In summer forecasts, large-scale circulation and convection anomalies exhibit northward propagation during the peak phase. In contrast, the GFS model still has difficulties in sustaining ISO variability during the northern winter as in the previous DERF run. That is, the forecast does not maintain the observed eastward propagating signals associated with large-scale circulation; rather the forecast anomalies appear to be stationary at their initial location and decay with time. The NCEP Coupled Forecast System produces daily operational forecasts and its predication skill of the MJO will be reported in the future.     

Direct measurement of vorticity and its transport in the surface layer over a paddy field

Direct measurement of the fluctuation of vorticity and its vertical transport was attempted in the surface layer over a paddy field, combining four sonic anemometers. The results obtained after some corrections of the raw data were in reasonable agreement with those expected from a dimensional analysis.     

Evaluation of pan evaporation modeling with two different neural networks and weather station data

This study evaluates neural networks models for estimating daily pan evaporation for inland and coastal stations in Republic of Korea. A multilayer perceptron neural networks model (MLP-NNM) and a cascade correlation neural networks model (CCNNM) are developed for local implementation. Five-input models (MLP 5 and CCNNM 5) are generally found to be the best for local implementation. The optimal neural networks models, including MLP 4, MLP 5, CCNNM 4, and CCNNM 5, perform well for homogeneous (cross-stations 1 and 2) and nonhomogeneous (cross-stations 3 and 4) weather stations. Statistical results of CCNNM are better than those of MLP-NNM during the test period for homogeneous and nonhomogeneous weather stations except for MLP 4 being better in BUS-DAE and POH-DAE, and MLP 5 being better in POH-DAE. Applying the conventional models for the test period, it is found that neural networks models perform better than the conventional models for local, homogeneous, and nonhomogeneous weather stations.     

Threshold value of Benthic Pollution Index (BPI) for a muddy healthy benthic faunal community and its application to Jinhae Bay in the southern coast of Korea

For the determination of benthic community health criteria of a biotic index, Benthic Pollution Index (BPI), the faunal data on macrobenthic community of Deukryang Bay collected in 2012 were used. Each macrobenthic fauna was classified into 4 functional groups according to their feeding and life history strategies and BPI was calculated using the abundance of fauna for these functional groups. Amphipods were the dominant faunal group belonging to Functional Group (FG) II in Deukryang Bay during all seasons. The BPI value fluctuated seasonally from 55 to 61, and the overall mean value of BPI in the reference area was 60, which was estimated as the threshold value for healthy communities. We tried to use BPI as an assessment tool for macrofaunal community health status by categorizing the BPI values into 5 grades. If the BPI value of the community is more than 60, the health status of a macrobenthic community will be assessed as ‘Excellent’ (Grade 1) and as ‘Good’ (Grade 2), if between 40 and 60, as ‘Fair’ (Grade 3), if between 30 and 40, as ‘Poor’ (Grade 4), if between 20 and 30, and finally the health status of a community will be assessed as ‘Very Poor’ (Grade 5), if the BPI value is less than 20. This assessment tool using BPI was applied to macrobenthic communities in Jinhae Bay including the Special Management Area of South Korea. In Jinhae Bay, the FG IV containing a spionid species, Paraprionospio patiens was the most dominant group. The values of BPI in Jinhae Bay were very low and ranged from 11 to 23. The ecological health status of macrobenthic communities in Jinhae Bay was ‘Very Poor’ at more than 50% of sites, especially in summer.     

Distribution patterns of macrobenthic fauna communities in Deukryang Bay,one of the environment conservation areas of Korea

Macrobenthic fauna were collected seasonally at 44 sites in Deukryang Bay from February to November, 2012. The species number of macrobenthic fauna was in the range of 140 to 181, and polychaetes comprised 41.4% of them. The average density of the whole study area changed seasonally from 755 to 1,507 ind. m^?2, and the most abundant fauna group was crustaceans which accounted for 55.1% of total abundance. An amphipod species Nippopisella nagatai was the most dominant species and a decapod species Xenophthalmus pinnotheroides, an amphipod species Photis longicaudata, and a polychaete species Paralacydonia paradoxa were also dominant in all seasons. The mean seasonal values of Shannon’s diversity index (H′) were in the range of 2.2–2.4, and those values for the evenness index and richness index were 0.7–0.7 and 4.6–5.7, respectively. From the cluster analysis, Deukryang Bay could be divided into 3 or 4 station groups with its specific fauna composition. The cluster analysis and an nMDS ordination revealed that local environmental factors such as water depth were related to the spatial delineation of macrobenthic fauna communities in Deukryang Bay.