三峡库区范家坪滑坡地表形变InSAR监测与综合分析

位于湖北省秭归县的范家坪滑坡是长江三峡库区干流上的大型岩质滑坡之一。阐述了高分辨率合成孔径雷达干涉测量技术(InSAR)监测滑坡地表形变的工作方法与技术体系,采用22景3m空间分辨率的TerraSAR-X数据,辅以人工反射体布设和GPS测量,对范家坪滑坡变形进行监测,发现滑坡处在缓慢匀速变形状态,其谭家河滑坡体的形变比木鱼包滑坡体更为强烈,形变最大处的雷达视线向形变速率达到300mm/a。通过综合分析滑坡区2012年大气降雨和长江水位资料,发现年度内范家坪滑坡变形受水位变化和大气降雨影响微弱。     

云南都龙超大型锡锌多金属矿床中闪锌矿微量及稀土元素地球化学特征

云南马关都龙锡锌多金属矿床位于滇东南老君山锡锌钨多金属成矿区南部,是我国三大锡石硫化物矿床之一,目前对其矿床成因认识存在较大分歧。本文采用ICP-MS对都龙矿床中闪锌矿微量元素及稀土元素组成进行分析,以探讨该矿床成矿作用,为甄别已有成因观点提供证据。结果表明,矿床中闪锌矿以富集Fe、Mn、In、Co、Sn和贫Cd、Ga、Ge、Ni等元素为特征,成矿温度属于中—高温,其微量元素组成与白牛厂矿床(与燕山晚期花岗岩有关的矽卡岩型矿床)中的闪锌矿非常相似,和远源矽卡岩型铅锌矿床(核桃坪和芦子园)中闪锌矿存在一定差异,明显有别于喷流沉积型铅锌矿床(云南澜沧老厂和广东大宝山)中闪锌矿。此外,该矿床闪锌矿稀土配分模式多为轻稀土元素富集中等的向右倾斜曲线,以LREE/HREE值高、Eu负异常明显和Ce异常不明显为特征,与矿区燕山晚期隐伏花岗岩稀土元素特征基本一致,成矿物质来源以矿区燕山晚期隐伏花岗岩为主。结合近期矿山开采和地质勘探所揭露的矿化和矽卡岩蚀变的垂向分带等矿床地质特征,认为云南马关都龙锡锌多金属矿床属于与燕山晚期花岗岩有关的矽卡岩型多金属矿床,其中层状矽卡岩的形成应为成矿流体顺层交代的结果,矿化类型和围岩蚀变的分带与隐伏岩体的距离有关。     

A comparative study of landslide susceptibility mapping using weight of evidence,logistic regression and support vector machine and evaluated by SBAS-InSAR monitoring: Zhouqu to Wudu segment in Bailong River Basin,China

The determining of landslide-prone areas in mountainous terrain is essential for land planning and hazard mitigation. In this paper, a comparative study using three statistical models including weight of evidence model (WoE), logistic regression model (LR) and support vector machine method (SVM) was undertaken in the Zhouqu to Wudu segment in the Bailong River Basin, Southern Gansu, China. Six conditionally independent environmental factors, elevation, slope, aspect, distance from fault, lithology and settlement density, were selected as the explanatory variables that may contribute to landslide occurrence based on principal component analysis (PCA) and Chi-square test. The relation between landslide distributions and these variables was analyzed using the three models and the results then used to calculate the landslide susceptibility (LS). The performance of the models was then evaluated using both the highly accurate deformation signals produced by using the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar technique and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results show more deformation points in areas with high and very high LS levels, and also more stable points in areas with low and very low LS levels for the SVM model. In addition, the SVM has larger area under the ROC curve. It indicates that the SVM has better prediction accuracy and classified ability. For the interpretability, the WoE derives the class of factors that most contributed to landsliding in the study area, and the LR reveals that factors including elevation, settlement density and distance from fault played major roles in landslide occurrence and distribution, whereas the SVM cannot provide relative weights for the variables. The outperformed SVM could be employed to determine potential landslide zones in the study area. Outcome of this research would provide preliminary basis for general land planning such as choosing new urban areas and infrastructure construction in the future, as well as for landslide hazard mitigation in Bailong River Basin.     

Determination of the thicknesses of oil films in micro- and nano-pores in tight oil sands: an example from the southern Songliao Basin,NE China

An experimental method of field-emission environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) coupled with the energy dispersive spectrum (EDS) to determine the thickness of oil films in the micro- and nano-pores of tight oil sands was proposed to overcome the limitations of current methods. First, we got the data of the detection range volumes, elemental mass percentages, and elemental atomic percentages using the EDS, and then calculated the volumes of oil films in the detection range according to the elemental mass percentages and the elemental atomic percentages of carbon. After that, we calculated the surface areas of oil films using the pore size data (lengths, widths, and depths) detected by ESEM. The thicknesses of oil films in the pores equaled the volumes divided by the surface areas. An analysis of tight oil samples from the Quan 4 Segment of in the southern Songliao Basin, NE China confirmed that the oil in the micro- and nano-pores had two main forms: oil films and oil droplets. The thicknesses of the oil films ranged from about 400 nm to 2 μm, while the thicknesses of the oil droplets ranged from about 200 to 700 nm.     

Field application at a DNAPL-contaminated site in Nanjing and discussion of a source search algorithm based on stochastic modeling and Kalman filter

Delineation of contaminant sources is vital for successful groundwater and soil remediation. With reliable source information, remediation time and cost can be dramatically reduced. An optimal contamination source search strategy incorporating Monte Carlo method, Kalman filtering and fuzzy set theory was applied to a contaminated site in Nanjing to define suspected multiple DNAPL source locations. Using the available nine sample data, the algorithm identified sources #1 and #4 as true sources, and sources #5 and #6 as false ones. The algorithm results for sources #2 and #3 were inconclusive. Three numerical experiments based on specific site conditions were then designed and conducted to determine the influencing factors on the algorithm’s convergence in sources #2 and #3. The numerical experiments tested the effect of multiple sources, the effect of the sources location in relation to the groundwater flow direction and the effect of a low permeability field on the convergence of the algorithm. Based on the numerical experiments and an understanding of the manufacturing site operations, sources #2 and #3 are likely to be true sources. Their moderate weights have been stabilized due to the existence of multiple true sources and the scarcity of informative sampling data, caused by the low permeability field. The moderate weight value of source #3 also includes a contribution from an overlapping plume caused by the sources’ parallel-to-flow layout pattern. It can be concluded that the algorithm works best for high permeability sites where potential source locations are scattered and source location patterns are orthogonal to the groundwater flow.     

The comprehensive evaluation on resource environmental bearing capacity of central cities in the Yellow River Delta-A case study on Dongying City

Dongying City, which is the most important central city in the Yellow River Delta, is located in the estuary of the Yellow River. With a short land formation time, ecological environment is very weak in this area. To realize the sustainable economic development of the Yellow River Delta, resource environment and resource environmental bearing capacity (REBC) must be improved. This study builds assessment system of regional REBC through resource and economic characteristics in Yellow River Delta and uses principal component analysis (PCA) method to evaluate REBC of five counties and districts in Dongying City in 2011-2015 on the dimensions of time and space. Results show that, on the time dimension, Guangrao County is ranked first, Dongying district second for four years and Hekou and Kenli districts with lower ranks in 2012-2015, indicating that more attention needs to be paid to REBC of Hekou and Dongying districts and these two districts should be included into key monitoring areas. From space scale, REBC in five counties and districts has been gradually improving. In order to further develop REBC in Dongying City, measures such as intensifying protection of urban ecological environment and developing circular economy, etc. should be implemented.     

Current changes of the lower troposphere temperature in the Moscow region

Modern climatic changes for 1991–2013 in the lower 4-km layer of the atmosphere in the Moscow region are discussed based on long-term measurements using radiosondes in Dolgoprudny near Moscow and sensors installed on a high mast in Obninsk and on a television tower in Ostankino in Moscow. It is shown that at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century the mean-annual air temperature at all heights from 2 to 4000 m increased by an average of 0.1°C per year. In recent years, the warming has slowed. Over the last two decades, long-term changes were multidirectional, depending on the season: warming in May–December, cooling in January–February, and no statistically significant changes in March and April. The probable reason for the temperature decrease in the middle of the cold period is changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation during recent years (the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in early 2010s). In recent years, the Moscow region climate continentality has increased because of warming in summer and cooling in winter, despite the secular decreasing trend, which was noted before. Mean daily and annual warming rates in Dolgoprudny were higher than in Obninsk. The probable reason is the northward construction expansion and the strengthening of the Moscow heat island. The highest annual temperature amplitude is recorded at heights of 200–300 m.     

一种水体提取结果的二值化影像求交优化方法

将NDWI、MNDWI、NDVI、WRI、AWEI及非监督分类法分别提取的不同时期水体信息作为粗结果,提出了利用二值化影像求交法对诸粗结果进行优化,得到多期的优化结果,然后利用PCA对各优化结果进行了处理,获得了不同时期水体面积的变化信息。试验表明该方法可以有效抑制噪声,完好地保留水面影像的边缘信息,显著提高了水体信息的提取精度,同时利用优化结果与PCA分别得到的变化量验证了PCA方法的监测精度。     

Evaluating Groundwater Interbasin Flow Using Multiple Models and Multiple Types of Data

The groundwater interbasin flow, Q_y, from the north of Yucca Flat into Yucca Flat simulated using the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model greatly exceeds assessments obtained using other approaches. This study aimed to understand the reasons for the overestimation and to examine whether the Q_y estimate can be reduced. The two problems were tackled from the angle of model uncertainty by considering six models revised from the DVRFS model with different recharge components and hydrogeological frameworks. The two problems were also tackled from the angle of parametric uncertainty for each model by first conducting Morris sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters and then conducting Monte Carlo simulations for the important parameters. The uncertainty analysis is general and suitable for tackling similar problems; the Morris sensitivity analysis has been utilized to date in only a limited number of regional groundwater modeling. The simulated Q_y values were evaluated by using three kinds of calibration data (i.e., hydraulic head observations, discharge estimates, and constant‐head boundary flow estimates). The evaluation results indicate that, within the current DVRFS modeling framework, the Q_y estimate can only be reduced to about half of the original estimate without severely deteriorating the goodness‐of‐fit to the calibration data. The evaluation results also indicate that it is necessary to develop a new hydrogeological framework to produce new flow patterns in the DVRFS model. The issues of hydrogeology and boundary flow are being addressed in a new version of the DVRFS model planned for release by the U.S. Geological Survey.     

长江北支口门圆陀角附近潮滩沉积物元素地球化学特征及其环境指示意义

圆陀角地处长江北支与江苏海岸的交汇处,发育了典型的粉砂淤泥质潮滩,潮滩沉积物元素可记录海岸环境变化的信息。在圆陀角附近潮滩采集了长度为218 cm的YY孔岩芯,常量与微量元素分析结果显示,岩芯沉积物平均粒径与大多数元素之间相关性好,“粒控效应”特征明显。除Ca、Na、Ti、P、Sr外,岩芯大部分元素含量自下向上呈现由低变高再变低的趋势,并在岩芯132 cm深度出现最大值。根据圆陀角附近海岸沙嘴长江北支变迁的证据,苏北岸外海域是长江北支的重要泥沙来源;粒度和粘土校正后的元素含量呈自下而上由低变高的趋势。邻近区域沉积物元素富集系数分析显示,在1956年前后,圆陀角附近潮滩沉积物发生了较大的变化,1956年以前的主要来源于长江,1956年以后演变为主要来源于南黄海辐射沙洲南翼。