上海地区雨水酸度与天气背景的关系

1981—1983年在上海地区11个观测站进行了雨水pH值观测,取到资料2448份.从资料分析得到:(1)雨水pH值与天气背景有关,静止锋天气影响时,酸雨出现几率达44.5％,雨水较酸;暖锋天气时,酸雨出现几率仅9％.(2)台风、高压边缘天气影响下,酸雨的形成主要是受局地污染源的影响;但静止锋、冷锋、低压系统天气时,酸雨的形成不仅受局地污染源的影响,而且还可能受随气流输送来的外来污染物的影响.     

2008年北京奥运会沈阳极端天气事件气候背景分析

利用1951～2005年沈阳7月下旬至9月上旬的日最高气温、降水量、风和天气现象等观测资料,分别以旬为单位统计了高温、暴雨、大风、大雾和雷暴等对体育竞赛影响较大的极端天气气候事件发生的概率及分布特点,以期为2008年北京奥运会足球沈阳分赛场的足球小组赛提供气候背景服务信息。结果表明:7月下旬至9月上旬,沈阳易出现高温、暴雨、大风和雷暴等不利天气,对举办足球比赛等赛事将会产生不利影响;相对而言,8月中旬至9月上旬期间,这些不利天气发生的概率较小,对举办足球比赛等赛事较为有利。     

Synoptic analysis of dust storms in the Middle East

Dust storm in the Middle East and south-west Asia is a natural hazard and the Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain has been recognized as the main dust source in this area. In this study, more than 60 dust storms that occurred during the period 2003–2011 are investigated on the basis of MODIS satellite images, and 12 of the dust storms are selected for synoptic analysis using the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Data. The potential dust sources in the Middle East and south-west Asian region (20°E to 80°E, 5°N to 50°N) are analyzed and used in the synoptic analysis. Dust storms in the region can be grouped into two main categories, i.e., the Shamal dust storms and the frontal dust storms. Synoptic systems, associated with the two categories, are distinguished and the frequency of the patterns is identified. For 68% of the Shamal dust storms, a high pressure system is situated between 0°E to 30°E and 27°N to 45°N, and a low pressure system between 50°E to 70°E and 23°N to 43°N. For 86% of the frontal dust storms, a high is located between 51°E to 67°E and 18°N to 33°N and a low between 28°E to 48°E and 32°N to 43°N. Three main patterns for Shamal dust storms are identified, which represent about 60% of the Shamal dust storms. This analysis confirms that the Shamal is related to the anticyclones located over northern Africa to Eastern Europe and the monsoon trough over Iraq, southern Iran, Pakistan and the Indian Subcontinent. The analysis also shows that the main dust sink for the frontal dust storms in Tigris and Euphrates alluvial plain extends from center of Iraq to west and center of Iran and, in most severe cases, to northern Iran and the southern coast of the Caspian Sea.     

2008年1月河南低温雨雪天气的中期环流特征

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,对2008年1月中下旬河南省出现的低温雨雪天气的特征、大尺度环流形势以及高低层大气的状态进行分析.结果表明: 2008年1月西太平洋副热带高压异常偏强偏北,有利于西南暖湿气流沿副高边缘向北输送,影响河南;东亚地区500 hPa高度距平东西部差距显著,标志着亚洲中纬度地区槽脊加强,环流经向度加大;东亚有较强冷空气活动,东亚从36候850 hPa明显的经向风负距平,也反映该时段冷空气活动较强.分析结果还显示,河南省冬季的持续低温雨雪天气与乌拉尔山阻塞高压的建立和维持有紧密联系:从乌拉尔山阻高的建立、维持到河南省低温雨雪天气的开始,从乌拉尔山阻高的崩溃到河南省雨雪天气的结束,中间的时间间隔约为510天.因此,乌拉尔山阻高的建立、维持和崩溃,对河南省低温雨雪天气的开始和结束有一定的指示意义.     

基于风暴尺度模式产品的暴雨最优升尺度概率预报方法研究

基于ARPS3DVAR+WRF (Advanced Regional Prediction and 3-dimensional variational System)快速同化模式对西南地区近几年发生的4次强降水过程进行模拟试验,对12 h降水预报结果采用升尺度方法,计算邻域平均预报、站点概率预报,最终形成邻域概率预报,并细致分析了这三种预报的特点与效果,讨论了升尺度窗区尺度给不同量级降水带来的影响,最后结合AROC评分与邻域空间检验FSS讨论业务概率预报应用的最佳尺度。结果表明:升尺度邻域平均预报在小雨与大暴雨量级降水上表现不稳定,对中雨的预报提高不明显,但是对大雨与暴雨预报有较好的改善效果;站点概率预报具有一定的误导性,而邻域概率预报可以弥补其缺憾,越高分辨率的模式有更多的降水样本,在降水不确定性上能给出更好的概率分级信息;相对邻域平均的升尺度预报TS检验结果,基于邻域概率的FSS和AROC分析有更好的预报技巧指导意义;36 km升尺度窗区既能消除一定程度的强降水预报不确定性,同时也可以保留适当的对流尺度特征,为最佳升尺度窗区。     

2019年中国气候主要特征及主要天气气候事件

2019年我国气候总体呈现暖湿特征。全国年平均气温较常年同期偏高0.79℃,为1951年以来连续第五暖年,四季气温均偏高,春、秋季明显偏暖;年降水量为645.5 mm,较常年同期偏多2.5%,冬、春、夏季降水偏多,秋季偏少。华南前汛期开始早、结束晚,为1961年以来最长前汛期,雨量为1961年以来次多;西南雨季开始和结束均偏晚,雨量偏少;入梅晚、出梅早,梅雨量偏少;华北雨季开始晚,结束与常年一致,雨量偏少;东北雨季开始早、结束晚,雨量偏多;华西秋雨开始早、结束晚,雨量偏多。2019年,台风生成多,登陆强度总体偏弱,仅台风利奇马灾损重;暴雨洪涝、干旱、强对流、低温冷冻害和雪灾、沙尘暴等气象灾害均偏轻。     

Ensemble standardization constraints on the influence of the tree growth trends in dendroclimatology

Climate Dynamics - Tree growth trends can affect the interpretation of the response of tree-ring proxies (especially tree-ring width) to climate in the low-frequency band, which in turn may limit...     

Microscopic morphology and size distribution of particles in PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> of Guangzhou City

Samples of airborne PM_2.5 particles in Guangzhou urban area were collected during the autumn of 2006 and the spring of 2007. The morphologies and elemental compositions of individual particles were determined by Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer (SEM-EDX). The obtained images were further analyzed for size distribution by an image analysis system. Based on the morphology, particles in PM_2.5 were classified into four groups: soot aggregates, minerals, fly ash and others. The amount of soot aggregates and minerals were higher than that of fly ashes. The distributions of particles by number and size in two seasons were bimodal with 90% less than 1.0 μm in diameter. The primary peak from the autumn samples was in the size range of 0.4 ~ 0.5 μm, and 0.3 ~ 0.4 μm for the spring samples. More soot aggregates (36.1%) and minerals (61.5%) were found than fly ash (2.4%) in autumn, but soot aggregates (89.9%) was the dominant particle type in spring. The size distribution of particles according to the volume was generally opposite to that according to the number. Particles less than 1.0 μm were as high as 89.5% in number but contributed only 18.9% in volume, indicating that fine particles contributed relatively little in volume although existing in large numbers.     

A mesoscale eddy detection method of specific intensity and scale from SSH image in the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific

Mesoscale eddies exist almost everywhere in the ocean and play important roles in the ocean circulation of the world. These eddies may cause sound spread singular regions and bring great influences to the upwater ship and underwater aircraft. Due to the lack of hydrographic survey datasets, study of mesoscale eddies has been greatly restricted. Fortunately, satellite altimeter provided an effective way to study mesoscale eddies. An automatic detection algorithm is introduced to detect mesoscale eddies of specific intensity and spatial/temporal scale based on satellite sea surface height (SSH) data and the algorithm is applied in a strong eddy activity region: the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific. The algorithm includes four steps. The first step is preprocessing of the SSH image, which includes elimination of error SSH data and interpolation. The second step is to detect suspected mesoscale eddies from preprocessed SSH images by dynamic threshold adjustment and morphological method, and the suspected mesoscale eddy detection includes two procedures: suspected mesoscale eddy core region detection and suspected mesoscale eddy brim extraction. The third step is to pick out mesoscale eddies satisfied with specified criteria from suspected mesoscale eddies. The criteria include three items, that is, intensity criterion, spatial scale, criterion and temporal scale criterion. The last step is algorithm performance analysis and verification. The algorithm has the capability of adaptive parameter adjustment, and can extract mesoscale eddies of interested intensity and spatial/temporal scale. The paper can provide a basis for analyzing space-time characteristics of mesoscale eddy in the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific.