用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

Parameter identification of inelastic structures under dynamic loads

The generalized model of differential hysteresis contains 13 control parameters with which it can curve‐fit practically any hysteretic trace. Three identification algorithms are developed to estimate the control parameters of hysteresis for different classes of inelastic structures. These algorithms are based upon the simplex, extended Kalman filter, and generalized reduced gradient methods. Novel techniques such as global search and internal constraints are incorporated to facilitate convergence and stability. Effectiveness of the devised algorithms is demonstrated through simulations of two inelastic systems with both pinching and degradation characteristics in their hysteretic traces. Owing to very modest computing requirements, these identification algorithms may become acceptable as a design tool for mapping the hysteretic traces of inelastic structures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

荆门某地面塌陷原因分析

介绍了某地地面塌陷的特征和环境条件,分析了该地地面塌陷的成冈,说明了调查和分析这一类地面塌陷成因的基奉方法和应急处理描施,提醒人们采矿所引起的环境问题与地质环境条件有者密切关系.     

Horizontal and vertical components of earthquake ground motions at liquefiable sites

Field observations on ground motions from recent earthquakes imply that current knowledge is limited with regard to relating vertical and horizontal motions at liquefiable sites. This paper describes a study with the purpose of clarifying this emerging issue to some extent. A series of numerical analyses is carried out on a liquefiable soil deposit with a verified, fully coupled, nonlinear procedure. It is shown that the transformation of vertical motions in the deposit differs considerably from the transformation of horizontal motions. Both the amplitude and frequency content of the horizontal motions are strongly dependent on the shaking level or the associated nonlinear soil behavior. The transfer function for vertical motions is however likely to be independent of the intensity of input motions; no reduction in the amplitude occurs even in the case of strong shaking. The results are shown to be in consistence with the laboratory observations on shaking table tests and recent field observations that less nonlinearity exists for vertical motions. It is also shown that the possibility exists for using information on spectral ratios between the horizontal and vertical surface motions to quickly identify in situ soil behavior and liquefaction that are not readily covered by conventional field or laboratory experimentation procedures.     

Computational modeling of cyclic mobility and post-liquefaction site response

Under seismic excitation, liquefied clean medium to dense cohesionless soils may regain a high level of shear resistance at large shear strain excursions. This pattern of response, known as a form of cyclic mobility, has been documented by a large body of laboratory sample tests and centrifuge experiments. A plasticity-based constitutive model is developed with emphasis on simulating the cyclic mobility response mechanism and associated pattern of shear strain accumulation. This constitutive model is incorporated into a two-phase (solid–fluid), fully coupled finite element code. Calibration of the constitutive model is described, based on a unique set of laboratory triaxial tests (monotonic and cyclic) and dynamic centrifuge experiments. In this experimental series, Nevada sand at a relative density of about 40% is employed. The calibration effort focused on reproducing the salient characteristics of dynamic site response as dictated by the cyclic mobility mechanism. Finally, using the calibrated model, a numerical simulation is conducted to highlight the effect of excitation frequency content on post-liquefaction ground deformations.     

Identification of Mining Blasts at Mid- to Far-regional Distances Using Low Frequency Seismic Signals

—?This paper reports results from two recent monitoring experiments in Wyoming. Broadband seismic recordings of kiloton class delay-fired cast blasts and instantaneous calibration shots in the Black Thunder coal mine were made at four azimuths at ranges from 1° to 2°. The primary focus of this experiment was to observe and to explain low-frequency signals that can be seen at all azimuths and should routinely propagate above noise to mid-regional distances where most events will be recorded by International Monitoring System (IMS) stations.¶The recordings clearly demonstrate that large millisecond delay-fired cast blasts routinely produce seismic signals that have significant spectral modulations below 10?Hz. These modulations are independent of time, the azimuth from the source and the orientation of the sensor. Low-frequency modulations below 5?Hz are seen beyond 9°. The modulations are not due to resonance as they are not produced by the calibration shots. Linear elastic modeling of the blasts that is guided by mine-blast reports fails to reproduce the fine detail of these modulations but clearly indicates that the enhanced “spectral roughness” is due to long interrow delays and source finiteness. The mismatch between the data and the synthetics is likely due to source processes, such as nonlinear interactions between shots, that are poorly understood and to other effects, such as variations of shot time and yield from planned values, that are known to be omnipresent but cannot be described accurately. A variant of the Automated Time-Frequency Discriminant (Hedlin, 1998b), which uses low-frequency spectral modulations, effectively separates these events from the calibration shots.¶The experiment also provided evidence that kiloton class cast blasts consistently yield energetic 2–10 second surface waves. The surface waves are strongly dependent on azimuth but are seen beyond 9°. Physical modeling of these events indicates that the surface waves are due mainly to the extended source duration and to a lesser extent to the slap-down of spalled material. The directionality is largely a path effect. A discriminant that is based on the partitioning of energy between surface and body waves routinely separates these events from the calibration shots.¶The Powder River Basin has essentially no natural seismic activity. How these mining events compare to earthquake observations remains to be determined.     

资源环境与社会经济协调发展探析

文章首先回顾了资源环境与社会经济发展的理论，提出资源环境与社会经济协调发展内涵：一方面，要在资源环境承载力范围内发展社会经济，追求社会经济发展的最大化，另一方面，环境承载力是动态的，要依靠社会经济发展不断提高，这两个方面是相互作用、相互制约的。在此基础上，详细论述了资源环境与社会经济协调发展的内容,并从社会经济发展、资源环境管理等角度探讨了资源环境与社会经济协调发展的政策调控，通过建立节约型国民经济体系、深化资源环境管理，实现区域一体化，以保证资源环境与社会经济协调发展的实现。     

The global rainforest mapping project JERS-1:a paradigm of international collaboration for monitoring land cover change

The Global Rainforest Mapping (GRFM) project was initiated in 1995 and, through a dedicated data acquisition policy by the National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA), data acquisitions could be completed within a 1.5-year period, resulting in a spatially and temporally homogeneous coverage to contain the entire Amazon Basin from the Atlantic to the Pacific; Central America up to the Yucatan Peninsular in Mexico; equatorial Africa from Madagascar and Kenya in the east to Sierra Leone in the west; and Southeast Asia, including Papua New Guinea. To some extent, GRFM project is an international endeavor led by NASDA, with the goal of producing spatially and temporally contiguous Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data sets over the tropical belt on the Earth by use of the JERS-1 L-band SAR, through the generation of semi-continental, 100m resolution, image mosaics. The GRFM project relies on extensive collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (JRC) and the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) for data acquisition, processing, validation and product generation. A science program is underway in parallel with product generation. This involves the agencies mentioned above, as well as a large number of international organizations, universities and individuals to perform field activities and data analysis at different levels.     

西藏自治区的土壤理化特性探讨

通过对西藏自治区主要土壤类型的实地踏勘和采样分析,并结合全国土壤普查资料的结果进行分析,揭示了本区土壤具有4点特性:即多砾石性、砂质性、成土幼年性和低矿化的富有机质性。因此,在改良本区土壤时,应重视去石与防治沙漠化措施,加强矿质养分肥料的施用,稳定有机肥的投入。     

西藏自治区土壤侵蚀特点及现状

西藏自治区地域辽阔,土壤侵蚀复杂多样。本文在野外调查的基础上,对西藏自治区土壤侵蚀特点作了全面论述,并对西藏自治区不同类型土壤侵蚀区的土壤侵蚀现状做了较全面的分区评价。同时取雅江中游地区19个县作为典型区域,利用1999年1:20万TM遥感图像土壤侵蚀解译结果,对该典型区域的土壤侵蚀现状作了定量评价。最后根据评价结果,对西藏自治区土壤侵蚀的发展趋势做了预测。