南海开放共享航次关键科学问题的思考——从多尺度海洋动力学角度出发

南海是西太平洋最大的边缘海, 通过一系列的海峡与西太平洋和印度洋相联通, 其不同时空尺度的海洋环流动力过程及其生态环境效应是南海区域海洋学研究的重要内容。自20世纪50年代末全国第一次海洋普查开始, 我国对海洋调查的支持力度不断加大, 以科学考察船为代表的海洋科学观测平台建设不断加强; 进入新千年以来, 国内海洋科考船依托的各主要研究所和院校本着开放的理念, 先后组织多单位联合进行海上观测。尤其是最近10年, 国家自然科学基金委员会支持实施了船时共享航次计划, 进一步促进了国内海洋界的交流和合作, 南海区域海洋学的相关研究取得了很多重要的成果。从多尺度环流动力学的角度出发, 本文简要回顾了南海海洋观测的发展历程, 并初步总结了近些年来南海关键科学问题的研究进展, 包括南海和西太平洋的水体交换过程、南海中小尺度过程、多尺度相互作用及其生态环境效应等; 并且在现有的研究基础上, 对未来南海的观测和科学问题提出若干思考与展望。     

确定区域大地水准面的K-means-RBF神经网络方法

确定区域大地水准面的几何水准方法在拟合大地水面时未顾及重力场信息,仅是一种单纯的数学拟合,忽略了重力场数据自身的物理性和不同数据间的相关性.近年来,深度学习方法得到广泛重视与研究.本文提出了一种有监督学习的RBF神经网络精化大地水准面的方法,使用包含重力异常和大地水准面高的重力场数据进行神经网络训练,并采用K-mean...     

东昆仑祁漫塔格地区乌兰乌珠尔早古生代花岗岩锆石U-Pb年代学、地球化学及其地质意义

为确定东昆仑祁漫塔格乌兰乌珠尔地区片麻状黑云母花岗岩和二长花岗岩的形成时代、岩石成因、源区性质和构造背景,对该岩石样品进行了锆石U-Pb年代学、地球化学和锆石Hf同位素研究.结果显示:片麻状黑云母花岗岩加权平均年龄为457.5±2.3 Ma,铝饱和指数A/CNK介于0.98～1.02,属准铝质岩石,Na2O/K2O比值...     

鄂尔多斯东部下二叠统山西组2段储层评价及勘探前景

针对鄂尔多斯东部下二叠统山西组2段低渗透油气藏的特点,通过高分辨率层序地层的划分对比,将研究区山2段划分为3个长期旋回。结合425块薄片观察、扫描电镜、阴极发光等储层微观特征分析研究,认为山2段是一套在岸线背景下具有强侵蚀作用的远源砂质辫状河沉积,受物源分异和水动力条件控制,榆林、神木、府谷3条河流的沉积储集特征差异明显,榆林河河道砂体为一套具有石英含量高、杂基和软岩屑含量较低、几乎不含长石的石英砂岩,储层的储集空间主要是以粒间孔为主的复合型孔隙,具有良好的储集性;神木和府谷河河道砂体与之相反,为石英含量低、杂基和软岩屑含量高、普遍含少量长石的岩屑石英砂岩,储层储集性差,仅见少量粒内溶孔。成岩演化分析认为山2段储层进入晚成岩B期,此期压实、压溶作用已非常强烈,榆林地区由于烃类的早期充注才使大量原生孔隙得以保存。通过对山2段储层沉积成岩演化分析,总结了石英砂岩与岩屑石英砂岩沉积储层特征的差异,预测出鄂尔多斯东部下步勘探方向即以榆林气田为代表的榆林河沉积区山2段高渗透石英砂岩发育的河道砂体。     

回忆二位革命家在唐山地震时的决策

1时任北京卫戌区司令吴忠唐山地震发生时,北京卫戌区司令吴忠正在密云水库度假。我当时在密云水库地震台工作,负责测震观测。1976年7月28日凌晨3时42分,一场毁灭性的大地震降临在河北省冀东地区,北京的大地也发生了剧烈的振动。强烈地震过后一个多小时,大约5点多钟,天逐渐在亮起来,已能看清路边的草木,地震台领导找到我说“你快随这位解放军去水库管理处,首长要了解情况”。我当时只穿了背心、短裤,脚上是拖鞋,强烈的振动已顾不上礼节,我就跟着那位战士来到了密云水库接待大厅。大厅内只有吴忠司令员和身边的一位警卫员,大厅此时已成了卫戌…     

辽宁省西丰县地质灾害的分布、形成条件与防治措施

辽宁省西丰县地质灾害以突发性地质灾害为主,分布广泛,主要有崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面塌陷、地裂缝等.西丰县地质构造和地层岩性较为复杂,降水充沛,人类工程、经济活动较为强烈,它们都为地质灾害的形成创造了有利的条件.在了解其成因的基础上,对其进行了有效的防治.对当地居民构成生命财产威胁的地质灾害点,需采取治理措施,避免和减少地质灾害的发生和危害.     

ARIMA-LSTM组合模型在基于SPI干旱预测中的应用——以青海省为例

开展干旱预测是有效应对干旱风险的前提基础。利用1958—2017年青海省38个气象站点逐日降水量数据计算多尺度标准化降水指数（SPI）,并建立了SPI序列自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）、长短时记忆神经网络模型（LSTM）和基于二者优点提出的ARIMA-LSTM组合模型;对模型参数进行率定和验证后,利用所建立的模型,以西宁站点为例,对多尺度SPI值进行预测,借助均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）和决定系数R²对所有预测模型的有效性进行判定。结果表明：ARIMA-LSTM组合模型在SPI1和SPI12的RMSE值分别为0.159 7和0.181 0,均低于ARIMA模型的1.265 4和0.293 3,说明ARIMA模型与ARIMA-LSTM组合模型对SPI的预测精度都与时间尺度有关,ARIMA模型的预测精度随着时间尺度的增加而逐渐提高;结合GIS并利用实测数据与模型的预测数据相比较说明ARIMA-LSTM组合模型相比于单一ARIMA模型的预测精度更高,且能够很好拟合不同时间尺度的SPI值。     

社区生活圈的新时间地理学研究框架

社区生活圈从居民日常活动及行为视角考察城市社区,是城市地理学和城市相关学科的研究前沿,也是中国国土空间规划体系创新的重要组成部分,以及中国城市社会可持续发展的重要抓手。伴随着流动性和信息化的不断深入,社区生活圈的主体日益多元化、社区活动和居民时空行为日益多样化、社区空间的功能与意义日益丰富化,亟需城市地理学的研究创新与实践引导。时间地理学是理解人与环境关系的社会—技术—生态综合方法,为早期基于时空行为与生活空间的社区生活圈研究提供了重要基础。新时间地理学重视家庭及其他组织企划的交互与时空组合,可为社区生活圈内个体—家庭—社区之间的复杂互动关系研究、时空行为的社会文化制约与多情境分析及模拟提供重要支撑。论文基于新时间地理学方法,从理论、方法和实证3个维度提出社区生活圈的新时间地理学研究框架,具体包括构建社区生活圈的时空行为理论,揭示社区生活圈的时空间结构;创新社区生活圈的时空行为分析和模拟方法;从社区生活圈时空行为优化、社区交往生活圈、社区安全生活圈等方面创新中国城市规划与管理等研究内容。     

全球粮食安全格局的时空演化

Food security is the primary prerequisite for achieving other Millennium Development Goals(MDGs).Given that the MDG of“halving the proportion of hungers by 2015”was not realized as scheduled,it will be more pressing and challenging to reach the goal of zero hunger by 2030.So there is high urgency to find the pattern and mechanism of global food security from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution.In this paper,based on the analysis of database by using a multi-index evaluation method and radar map area model,the global food security level for 172 countries from 2000 to 2014 were assessed;and then spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to depict the spatial patterns and changing characteristics of global food security;then,multi-nonlinear regression methods were employed to identify the factors affecting the food security patterns.The results show:1)The global food security pattern can be summarized as“high-high aggregation,low-low aggregation”.The most secure countries are mainly distributed in Western Europe,North America,Oceania and parts of East Asia.The least secure countries are mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia and West Asia,and parts of Southeast Asia.2)Europe and sub-Saharan Africa are hot and cold spots of the global food security pattern respectively,while in non-aggregation areas,Haiti,North Korea,Tajikistan and Afghanistan have long-historical food insecurity problems.3)The pattern of global food security is generally stable,but the internal fluctuations in the extremely insecure groups were significant.The countries with the highest food insecurity are also the countries with the most fluctuated levels of food security.4)The annual average temperature,per capita GDP,proportion of people accessible to clean water,political stability and non-violence levels are the main factors influencing the global food security pattern.Research shows that the status of global food security has improved since the year 2000,yet there are still many challenges such as unstable global food security and acute regional food security issues.It will be difficult to understand these differences from a single factor,especially the annual average temperature and annual precipitation.The abnormal performance of the above factors indicates that appropriate natural conditions alone do not absolutely guarantee food security,while the levels of agricultural development,the purchasing power of residents,regional accessibility,as well as political and economic stability have more direct influence.     

Analysis of city centrality based on entropy weight TOPSIS and population mobility: A case study of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Based on statistical data and population flow data for 2016,and using entropy weight TOPSIS and the obstacle degree model,the centrality of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)together with the factors influencing centrality were measured.In addition,data for the population flow were used to analyze the relationships between cities and to verify centrality.The results showed that:(1)The pattern of centrality conforms closely to the pole-axis theory and the central geography theory.Two axes,corresponding to the Yangtze River and the Shanghai-Kunming railway line,interconnect cities of different classes.On the whole,the downstream cities have higher centrality,well-defined gradients and better development of city infrastructure compared with cities in the middle and upper reaches.(2)The economic scale and size of the population play a fundamental role in the centrality of cities,and other factors reflect differences due to different city classes.For most of the coastal cities or the capital cities in the central and western regions,factors that require long-term development such as industrial facilities,consumption,research and education provide the main competitive advantages.For cities that are lagging behind in development,transportation facilities,construction of infrastructure and fixed asset investment have become the main methods to achieve development and enhance competitiveness.(3)The mobility of city populations has a significant correlation with the centrality score,the correlation coefficients for the relationships between population mobility and centrality are all greater than 0.86(P<0.01).The population flow is mainly between high-class cities,or high-class and low-class cities,reflecting the high centrality and huge radiating effects of high-class cities.Furthermore,the cities in the YREB are closely linked to Guangdong and Beijing,reflecting the dominant economic status of Guangdong with its geographical proximity to the YREB and Beijing's enormous influence as the national political and cultural center,respectively.