河流集合预报方法(ESP)在水资源中长期预测中的应用研究

中长期径流预测是水文水资源研究领域中的一项重要内容,为水资源规划管理及可持续利用、防汛抗旱、水库调度与发电计划制作、工农业用水计划编制等提供科学依据,对国民经济发展具有十分重要的意义.但由于大气圈极其复杂,水文要素并非仅是气象强迫输入的函数.它还受流域基本特性,前期来水以及人类活动等诸多因素的影响,中长期径流预测在其计算中存在着多种不确定性.因此,中长期径流预测一直是水文预测研究中难度较大的课题之一.本文引入河流集合预报方法(ESP),以丹江口水库为应用实例,利用水文气象历史资料和新安江水文模型,预测分析水库2007年10月份每旬的平均入库流量及概率分布统计,并经与实测流量过程对比分析,满足水库运行调度需求,为水库发电计划制作提供了可靠依据.     

鲁中南隆起区第四纪晚期断裂活动特征

根据野外调查，并综合前人的研究资料，对鲁中南地区第四纪晚期断裂活动进行了分析，研究表明，鲁中南隆起区第四纪断裂活动具有时空不均匀性，主要表现为第四纪时期断层活动强度变化和断裂活动的群集性以及第四纪晚期断裂活动段分布的局限性上。对于鲁中南地区而言，活动断层可以分为中更新世中期（500kaBP)至晚更新世初期（90kaBP)活断层和晚更新世中、晚期至全新世早期活断层两类；其中前一类（主要是中更新世断裂）断裂数量较多，分布较为广泛，而晚更新世晚期以来的活动断裂段的数量较少，分布较局限。它们对地震的控制能力不同，前者可控制5．5级左右的地震，而后一类可控制6－7级地震的发生。     

庵东浅滩沉积分带和沉积速率

杭州湾南岸的庵东浅滩具有地貌特征、沉积类型和沉积构造各异的三个沉积相带。垂向沉积带为潮滩沉积体的盖层,以泥滩、粘土质粉砂和薄砂泥交互层为特征;改造带位于中低潮位线附近,以粉砂滩、潮沟系统、粉砂沉积和沙波层理为特征;横向沉积带为潮滩堆积体的基础,以滩坡、粉砂及细砂质粉砂沉积、冲刷-充填构造为特征。据潮汐韵律层的统计,庵东浅滩沉积速率的短周期分量,常态条件下为每半日潮周期0.1～2.0cm,异常条件下可达每半日潮周期4～64cm。沉积速率的长周期分量,据地形对比和~(210)Pb推算,垂向沉积带为2～4.5cm/a;改造带中的粉砂滩为2.1～4.5cm/a,潮沟影响范围内为1～10~1cm/a量级;横向沉积带则以高于50cm/a的高沉积速率和变幅为主。近10年来,该浅滩的年淤积量为6×10~7t/a,其中85％集中于横向沉积带。     

Glaciomarine sedimentation and palaeo-glacial setting of Maxwell Bay and its tributary embayment, Marian Cove, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica

High-resolution (3.5 kHz and multi-channel) seismic profiles and piston cores were collected from Maxwell Bay and its tributary embayment, Marian Cove, in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, during the Korea Antarctic Research Program (1992/93 and 1995/96) to elucidate the glaciomarine sedimentation processes and recent glacial history of the area. Seismic data from Maxwell Bay reveal a rugged bay margin and flattened basin floor covered with well-stratified hemipelagic muds. On the base-of-slope, acoustically transparent debris flows occur, indicating downslope resedimentation of glaciomarine sediments. Despite the subpolar and ice-proximal settings of Marian Cove, the seafloor is highly rugged with a thin sediment drape, suggesting that much of the area has been recently eroded by glaciers. Sediment cores from the cove penetrated three distinct fining-upward lithofacies: (1) basal till in the lower part of the core, accumulated just seaward of the grounding line of the tidewater glacier; (2) interlaminated sand and mud in the middle part, deposited in ice-proximal zone by a combination of episodic subglacial meltwater inflow and iceberg dumping; and (3) pebbly mud in the upper part, deposited in ice-distal zone by both surface meltwater plume and ice-rafting from the glacier front. A reconstruction of the glacial history of these areas since the late glacial maximum shows an ice sheet filling Maxwell Bay in late Wisconsin time and grounding of the tidewater glacier in Marian Cove until about 1300 yr BP.     

Relationship between biogeochemical features of biogenic elements and flocculation in the Changjiang Estuary

ＲｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｈｉｐｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｂｉｏｇｅｏｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌｆｅａｔｕｒｅｓｏｆｂｉｏｇｅｎｉｃｅｌｅｍｅｎｔｓａｎｄｆｌｏｃｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎｉｎｔｈｅＣｈａｎｇｊｉａｎｇＥｓｔｕａｒｙ￥ＬｉｎＹｉ＇ａｎ；ＴａｎｇＲｅｎｙｏｕ；ＬｉＹａｎ；Ｄｏ...     

Vertical variations of wave-induced radiation stress tensor

INTRODUcrIONThe concept of radiation stress was deve1oPed by tonguet--Higgins and Stewart (1964 ),who intreduced the definition of radiation stress as the excess mornentum due to the presence ofwaves, on the basis of time-averaged laws of Newtonian fluid mechanics and the assmption ofa unifOrm velocity distribution over depth. Subequently, the theory has been applied success-fully in the investigation of phenomena such as wave set-up and set--down (Bowen et al.,l968), longshore currents …     

海藻中类胡萝卜素抗超氧自由基活性研究

在植物组织内，类胡萝卜素除具有集光功能外，还具有其他的重要生物学功能，类胡萝卜素作为光保护剂可抵抗光、氧和光敏色素的有害作用，也可作为化学反应物抵抗细胞所产生的化学物质引起的氧化损伤，保护光合系统免受光动力敏化作用的破坏。类胡萝卜素光保护作用的主要机制如下:(1)类胡萝卜素对三重线态敏化剂的淬灭；(2)类胡萝卜素对1O2的淬灭；(3)类胡萝卜素对自由基反应的抑制，它的这种生物学活性在医学领域也具有重要的应用价值。胡萝卜素在生物系统中的保护作用包括失活由电激活的单线态氧(1O2)，失活反应性的化学物质如过氧化物自由基和烷氧基，这些自由基产生于细胞内，并可能会引起有害的氧化作用。类胡萝卜素的保护功能与直接的抗氧化活性或与对细胞内抗氧化水平的调节有关(Krinsky，1990)。对于类胡萝卜素清除脂类过氧化物自由基的能力和作用机理已经进行了详细的研究(Burton et al.，1984; Burton, 1989; Terao，1989; Palozza et al.，1992b; Tsuchihashi et al.，1995)，但对于类胡萝卜素清除超氧阴离子自由基的能力尚未见有详细研究报道。本文以邻苯三酚自氧化体系作为超氧自由基的发生体系，对海藻中分离纯化制备的类胡萝卜素清除该种自由基的能力进行了初步的探讨。     

Model Test of Sand Restraining Force on Pipeline

This paper describes the model tests for determining the axial friction and the lateral resistance of sand to pipeline by using fine sand and prototype pipeline, and the calculation method based on limit analysis theory is verified. The effect of cyclic loading is considered in the test.     

Embryonic and larval development of Babylonia formosae habei (Altena and Gittenberger, 1981) (Gastropoda:Buccinidae) on China''''s coast

The development of embryos and larvae of Babylonia formosae habei living along the southeast coast of China is observed under laboratory conditions. The egg masses are laid by females on hard substrate at night and each capsule contains 100-500 eggs. Each egg is 250-280 mm in diameter. The first two cleavages of the embryo are meridional and equal, and a polar lobe is produced. Larval kidney, which only consists of a single cell, appears during the gastrula stage on each side of the embryo. The right tentacle develops prior to the left one. At 25-27℃, an intracapsulate veliger stage is reached about 4.5 d after deposition. The larvae hatch on the fifth day as swimming veligers with a shell length of 360 -500 mm. The newly hatched larva can ingest suspended algal cells from the water column and remains in the pelagic stage for 8-10 d. The newly settled juveniles are 900-1 200 mm in shell length.     

A Numerical Study on the Structure and Dynamics of Turbulence in Oscillatory Bottom Layer Flow over A Flat or Rippled Bed

1 .IntroductionUnder the influence of surface waves ,sandripples often appear on beaches . Whenthe amplitudeof water oscillationis sufficientlylarge ,vortices are formed onthe lee of every sand ripple crest . A-mongthese vortices ,the most important are t…