Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification on the Latitude under Vertical Shear

The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification to the ambient rotation effect under vertical shear is investigated. The results show that the vortices develop more rapidly with intermediate planetary vorticity, which suggests an optimal latitude for the TC development in the presence of vertical shear. This is different from the previous studies in which no mean flow is considered. It is found that the ambient rotation has two main effects. On the one hand, the boundary layer imbalance is largely controlled by the Coriolis parameter. For TCs at lower latitudes, due to the weaker inertial instability, the boundary inflow is promptly established, which results in a stronger moisture convergence and thus greater diabatic heating in the inner core region. On the other hand, the Coriolis parameter modulates the vertical realignment of the vortex with a higher Coriolis parameter, favoring a quicker vertical realignment and thus a greater potential for TC development. The combination of these two effects results in an optimal latitude for TC intensification in the presence of a vertical shear investigated.     

一次春季冷空气过程中东海海域海气通量与界面热交换分析

利用船测资料分析一次冷空气过程中东海海域海气通量特征及海洋表面热收支变化特征。2017年5月5日20时—6日14时冷空气过境期间,动量通量平均值为0.22 N·m-2。感热和潜热通量的平均值分别为27.17 W·m-2和90.25 W·m-2,是春季整个观测期间（2017年4月20日—5月26日）平均值的2.8倍和1.1倍。冷空气爆发当天,净热通量为-12.73 W·m-2,海洋失热。白天海表面热收入58.36 W·m-2,影响海面热收支变化的主要是净辐射通量和潜热通量。夜间海表面热支出156.89 W·m-2,海洋作为热源向大气释放潜热99.79 W·m-2,占海洋释放能量过程的63.61%,向大气释放感热27.11 W·m-2,占海表释放热量的17.28%,海表面损失的热量主要以潜热的形式向大气传输。     

A Climate Prediction Method Based on EMD and Ensemble Prediction Technique

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.     

Measuring place-based accessibility under travel time uncertainty

Travel time uncertainty has significant impacts on individual activity-travel scheduling, but at present these impacts have not been considered in most accessibility studies. In this paper, an accessibility evaluation framework is proposed for urban areas with uncertain travel times. A reliable space-time service region (RSTR) model is introduced to represent the space-time service region of a facility under travel time uncertainty. Based on the RSTR model, four reliable place-based accessibility measures are proposed to evaluate accessibility to urban services by incorporating the effects of travel time reliability. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a case study using large-scale taxi tracking data is carried out. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed accessibility measures can evaluate large-scale place-based accessibility well in urban areas with uncertain travel times. Conventional place-based accessibility indicators ignoring travel time reliability can significantly overestimate the accessibility to urban services.     

日长的十年尺度变化研究

用高精度的日长资料和由人卫激光测距（ＳＬＲ） 解算出的地球引力场系数Ｊ２ 的变化序列ΔＪ２ ,证明地球各圈层的物质迁移对日长１０ 年尺度变化贡献仅占日长１０ 年尺度变化的４ ％ ,可以忽略;认为１０ 年尺度变化主要来源于地球各圈层的内力矩或相对角动量部分,其优点是可以不顾及地球各圈层物质迁移复杂的物理机制     

山东乳山海滩岩及其重要科学意义

乳山海滩岩,经过室内对微体化石、大化石和沉积岩石学研究,查明该岩体具有典型的海滩岩特征:含有两种文石胶结物、滨海相微体古生物和热带大化石。该岩体形成在全新世最佳气侯期,至少有3次成岩期,对研究古环境变化规律具有重要的科学意义。     

滇黔桂岩溶地区农业地域类型分区之研究

本文针对滇黔桂岩溶地区农业自然环境特征、农村社会经济条件及其岩溶对农业生产发展和农业生态环境建设影响等的显著地域差异和显著地域分异规律,根据分区指标选择原则,建立起以地貌类型、岩溶地貌景观类型、农民人均纯收入为内容的分区指标体系,把全区划分为三大类、九个农业地域类型区。对三大类型区作了简述。      

鲈鱼的形态和生态特征及养殖结果

本文根据现有文献资料和笔者的研究结果,比较了不同产地,不同种群鲈鱼的形态、生态特征和各地的养殖结果,分析了产生不同结果的重要原因,提出了充分利用不同种类及产地的鲈鱼为人类造福。     

基于二维模式的PDM与MRPⅡ无缝衔接可行性分析

ＣＩＭＳ工程的重要思想是将企业全部生产经营活动视为有机整体,可以集成与优化。但是,目前我国ＣＩＭＳ工程中ＰＤＭ与ＭＲＰⅡ分系统并未真正实现紧密结合与集成,甚至是彼此分离,无直接衔接。在实践经验的基础上,作者探讨了基于二维模式的ＰＤＭ与ＭＲＰⅡ紧密衔接可行性,提出了实现这一衔接的初步设想     

不动产地籍和产权登记信息系统

介绍了一种涵盖地籍管理过程且在实施过程中简单易行而有效的信息系统,为土地资源的合理开发利用和地籍信息的动态管理了新的途径。