Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrological design or risk assessment. However, due to knowledge and data limitation, uncertainty involved in extrapolating beyond available data is huge. In this paper, different sources of uncertainty in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events are studied in a systematic way. This is done by focusing on several key uncertainty sources using three different case studies. The chosen case studies highlight a number of projects where there have been questions regarding the uncertainty in extreme rainfall/flood estimation. The results show that the uncertainty originated from the methodology is the largest and could be >40% for a return period of 200 years, while the uncertainty caused by ignoring the dependence among multiple hydrological variables seems the smallest. In the end, it is highly recommended that uncertainty in modeling extreme hydrological events be fully recognized and incorporated into a formal hydrological extreme analysis.     

Energy Evolution Model and Critical Failure Criterion for the Dynamic Process of Tunnel System Instability

The failure criteria and dynamic evolution process of tunnel system deformation and instability have been one of the popular areas in the research field of underground engineering albeit one of the most difficult. The energy evolution model and critical failure criterion of the dynamic process in tunnel system instability are studied in this paper. Based on in situ measurements and the dissipative structure theory, the energy dissipation and dynamic evolution characteristics of the tunnel system instability has been presented. By using the basic laws of thermodynamics, the energy dissipation mechanism of the whole tunnel system has been explored, and an energy evolution model of the tunnel system instability has been established. On this basis, the degree of stability evolution process has been determined depending on the sample size (more than or <3,000). The energy criterion is proposed in accordance with the unstable and failure features of each evaluation stage of the tunnel system. This study has proved that the energy evolution model and critical failure criterion is reasonable and reliable in studying the stability analysis of an overlapped tunnels in Guangzhou metro, China. It also provides a significant guideline for the calculation and analysis of tunnel stability.     

地震信息对薄砂岩储层特性的描述

近年来,以地震信息为主进行油气藏描述,这是当前对石油勘探的重点攻关课题.本文结合我国陆上和海域部分油田或含油气构造的实际资料,运用地震信息为主,结合测井、地质及钻井等资料,对储层进行综合解释。同时,提出了用多地震信息计算薄层厚度的基本公式,根据地区性岩性和地震资料的差异,使用了确定性地质统计和Coringing分析两种方法进行储层物性参数的预测,文中给出大量的实例说明各种储层参数描述方法和应用效果。     

Lunar capture in the planar restricted three-body problem

The capture dynamics is an important field in Astronomy and Astronautics. In this paper, the near-optimal lunar capture in the Earth–Moon transfer is investigated under the frame of the planar circular restricted three-body problem. We try to work out how to achieve the permanent lunar capture with the minimum maneuver consumption. This problem is decomposed into two parts: the pre-maneuver part and the post-maneuver part. In the pre-maneuver part, considering the criteria of the gravitational capture, we obtain the minimum pre-maneuver velocity via the numerical backward integration. In the post-maneuver part, using the Poincaré section and the KAM theory, we find the maximum post-maneuver velocity to achieve the permanent capture. Synthesized the results of the two parts, a new method is presented to find the near-optimal maneuver position and the minimum maneuver consumption. The method presented is simple and visible, and can provide abundant capture orbits for the design of low energy Earth–Moon transfers.     

地面臭氧的变化规律和计算方法的初步研究Ⅱ.可见光波段

通过对广州鼎湖山近地面O3、NOx、太阳辐射,气象参数等项目的观测和理论分析,研究了地面O3与NOx等微量气体及太阳可见光辐射的变化规律,详细讨论了可见光波段、不同天气条件地面O3与NOx、光化学反应、气溶胶、可见光辐射等之间复杂的关系.提出以光能量传输与守恒的观点来考虑大气中与可见光辐射有关的主要过程,并以此来研究大气光化学过程中所遵循的能量规律,建立了一个简单、实用、省时的统计模式,用于计算地面O3浓度.结果表明:不同情况下,计算值与观测值吻合得均比较一致.     

符合药用质量要求的甲壳素精制工艺

本文探讨了符合以下药用质量要求的甲壳素的精制工艺，甲壳素脱乙酰度在７０－９０％之间，钙的含量〈０．５％，总蛋含量在７－８％之间，灰分〈１％，酸不溶性灰分〈０．０５％，无毒，为甲壳素在医药上的应用，提供了生产数据。     

Distribution and source of heavy metals in the surface sediments from the near-shore area,north Jiangsu Province,China

Samples of surface sediment and vibrocore were collected in the near-shore area of north Jiangsu Province for grain size, elements, ²¹⁰Pb_excess and ¹³⁷Cs analyses. In our study area, the diversity of metal concentration was controlled not by the grain size, but by the source. The element content of the old Yellow River Delta was used as baseline for our study area. Geoaccumulation indexes indicate that no station was polluted by Cu, Pb, Zn and As, but the I_geo values of As were close to zero in some stations. Slight pollution caused by Cd was observed in some stations. Correlation and enrichment factors suggest that Cu, Pb and Zn are lithogenic in origin, while As and Cd are mixed in origin. Especially, in some polluted stations Cd was obviously anthropogenic in origin.     

Study on electric variations of media in epicentral area by geomagnetic transfer functions

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Prediction of tropical cyclone frequency with a wavelet neural network model incorporating natural orthogonal expansion and combined weights

A nonlinear wavelet neural network (WNN) model with natural orthogonal expansion (NOE) and combined weights is constructed to predict the annual frequency of tropical cyclones (TCF) occurring over the coastal regions of Southern China. Combined weights are obtained by calculating categorical weights, based on the particle swarm projection pursuit, and ranking weights, based on fuzzy mathematics, followed by optimization. The global monthly mean heights at 500?hPa and sea-surface temperature fields are used as two predictors. The linear and nonlinear information of the predictors with reduced dimensions is gathered through the NOE and combined weights, respectively, and treated as the input into the WNN model. This model is first trained with the 55-year (i.e., 1950?C2004) TCF data and then used to predict annual TCFs for the subsequent 5?years (i.e., 2005?C2009). Results show that the mean absolute and relative errors are 0.6175 and 9.34?%, respectively. The impacts of the combined weights, NOE and WNN as well as the traditional multi-regression approach on the TCF prediction are examined. Results show superior performance of the WNN-based model in the annual TCF prediction.