台风预报系统

本文介绍的是一项在微机上实现的台风预报专家系统。该系统可进行台风气候查询、台风路径检索、台风特例查询，并能利用相似加权法制作出１２－７２小时台风路径和中心强度预报，对异常路径台风也可提供一定的诊断预报判据。本系统已在军内外一些气象业务单位得到应用，实践证明它是一种简便有效的台风预报工具。     

Old stellar population synthesis： new age and mass estimates for Mayall Ⅱ = G1

Mayall Ⅱ = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters （GCs） in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBVRI, and infrared JHKs 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G 1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20 000A. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar population （SSP） models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ～1.7 Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates （of order 10^7M⊙） indicate that GI is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster＇s exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, （1.65±0.63） × 10^2L⊙ far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depending on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar photometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.     

Cross-shelf transport into nearshore waters due to shoaling internal tides in San Pedro Bay, CA

In the summer of 2001, a coastal ocean measurement program in the southeastern portion of San Pedro Bay, CA, was designed and carried out. One aim of the program was to determine the strength and effectiveness of local cross-shelf transport processes. A particular objective was to assess the ability of semidiurnal internal tidal currents to move suspended material a net distance across the shelf. Hence, a dense array of moorings was deployed across the shelf to monitor the transport patterns associated with fluctuations in currents, temperature and salinity. An associated hydrographic program periodically monitored synoptic changes in the spatial patterns of temperature, salinity, nutrients and bacteria. This set of measurements show that a series of energetic internal tides can, but do not always, transport subthermocline water, dissolved and suspended material from the middle of the shelf into the surfzone. Effective cross-shelf transport occurs only when (1) internal tides at the shelf break are strong and (2) subtidal currents flow strongly downcoast. The subtidal downcoast flow causes isotherms to tilt upward toward the coast, which allows energetic, nonlinear internal tidal currents to carry subthermocline waters into the surfzone. During these events, which may last for several days, the transported water remains in the surfzone until the internal tidal current pulses and/or the downcoast subtidal currents disappear. This nonlinear internal tide cross-shelf transport process was capable of carrying water and the associated suspended or dissolved material from the mid-shelf into the surfzone, but there were no observation of transport from the shelf break into the surfzone. Dissolved nutrients and suspended particulates (such as phytoplankton) transported from the mid-shelf into the nearshore region by nonlinear internal tides may contribute to nearshore algal blooms, including harmful algal blooms that occur off local beaches.     

北京周围地区地震的分布特点与地壳屈曲

地震活动的规模常具有大尺度的特点,结合全球地震分布具有相当的似对称性,我们认为,地震的成因必然蕴含着地球的整体运动.地震活动具有块体性活动的特点.块体的边界线常与经纬线相交成45°.强震发生前也有这种情况.文中给出了与经纬线相交成45°的一个条块,近年华北的强震基本上都落在这个条块的两条边线上,且这些强震的分布具有较明显的等间隔分布特点,类似于地层中的褶皱所显示的一定的波长.我们分析了有历史记载以来我国全部八级地震,发现每次八级地震前后,都有另一次八级或七级半地震在它的一定距离上发生.这个间距有两个优势分布,一个短距的为480—550公里,另一个长距的为1100公里左右(后者约为前者的一倍).引用了柱壳轴向受力屈曲作为初步探讨.从分析可知,柱壳屈曲的半波长(1/2λ≈1.72$ \\sqrt{Rh} $)主要决定于圆柱半径与柱壳厚度:以 R=6000公里、h=15公里估算,得半波长为530公里,与我国强震分布间距较为符合.故我们的初步认识是地震的分布可能受着地壳屈曲的控制.     

云南天文台三孔较差视宁度监视仪的建立

较详细地讲述了云南天文台三孔较差视宁度监视仪的情况,然而,与一般天文理论和天文技术的专题研究不一样,天文仪器的研制有如说是研究,还不如说是归纳;它不是分析一个具体的尚未解决的难题,而是把许多已知的理论和技术综合起来,构成一台具体的仪器。所以,本文把许多至少是表面上互不相关的理论和技术问题归纳到一篇论文中。仪器是有许多模块组成的,为了看起来逻辑性较强,我们将仪器分模块叙述,全文遵循如下顺序：１在第一篇中,回顾世界各天文台视宁度测量设备的发展史和云南天文台的宁静度测量发展史;２在第二篇中,介绍：１）云南天文台三孔较差视宁度研制任务的来源,仪器的整体状况;２）介绍云南天文台三孔较差视宁度仪的硬件系统;３）介绍云南天文台三孔较差视宁度仪的软件系统;若大模块中有多个小模块,在每一个大模块中,又遵循下述顺序：１）本模块的总体功能;２）构成该模块的基本技术;３）这些基本技术如何构成整体和完成预定功能。３在第三篇中,介绍我们所作的与视宁度测量有关的一些实验和实验结果。     

Water quality monitoring at a virtual watershed monitoring station using a modified deep extreme learning machine

ABSTRACT

A new deep extreme learning machine (ELM) model is developed to predict water temperature and conductivity at a virtual monitoring station. Based on previous research, a modified ELM auto-encoder is developed to extract more robust invariance among the water quality data. A weighted ELM that takes seasonal variation as the basis of weighting is used to predict the actual value of water quality parameters at sites which only have historical data and no longer generate new data. The performance of the proposed model is validated against the monthly data from eight monitoring stations on the Zengwen River, Taiwan (2002–2017). Based on root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error and correlation coefficient, the experimental results show that the new model is better than the other classical spatial interpolation methods.     

疏浚物倾倒区海水水质级别的模糊综合评价

应用模糊综合评价方法对大连臭水套海域疏浚物预选倾倒区的水质状况进行了评价，得到了有益的结论。     

A study on relation between acoustic emission and characteristic displacement field on the sample with multi en echelon structures — The theoretic and experimental explorations of strain gap

Based on the phenomena that the deformation gap was observed before the great Tangshang earthquake, this paper discusses the strain gap according to test and theory. The (strain) patterns were recorded photographically by realtime holographic interferometry and shadow optical method of caustics, as soon as the loading process started. In the meantime, the AE (acoustic emission) signals were recorded by a micro crack information storage-analysis system. According to damage theory and location of micro fracture, we have studied the stain gap and gained: a) It is necessary that strain gap appears under the condition of linear elasticity theory, and its situation is relatively stable, corresponding to stress concentration. b) Micro fractures, which appear initially at area of high stress, occur rarely at the strain gap, and their locations are finally in the zone between the stress concentration area and the strain gap, which indicate the clusters or groups. However, the major macro fracture (final rupture) started from the shadow areas, and then grew quickly towards the strain gaps, which resulted in failure of sample. Foundation item: The Dual Project of China Seismological Bureau (9691309020301), the Specialized Funds for National Key Basic Study (G1998040704), the project for the MOST under contract (2001BA601B02) and Youth Funds for applied basic study of the Science and Technology Bureau of Yunnan Province (98D019Q).     

富营养化湖泊蓝藻—芦苇碎屑堆积分解过程及其潜在的共代谢效应

为探究富营养化浅水湖泊所富集的有机物对湖泊碳循环和水质的影响,本研究构建微宇宙系统,模拟蓝藻和芦苇碎屑单独分解及混合分解过程.通过测定各组上覆水营养盐浓度、有机质含量及结构的变化,揭示富营养化湖泊藻草残体混合分解过程中养分和有机碳的释放特征.结果 表明,在实验0～88 h内,在添加相同的碳源条件下,蓝藻和芦苇混合处理组...     

郯庐断裂带平移时代的同位素年龄证据

对郯庐断裂带南段左旋走滑韧性剪切带中糜棱岩的K-Ar全岩分析结果研究表明,该剪切带形成后,在99±2Ma前(早白垩世末期)冷却至封闭温度。结合其它地质现象,笔者认为郯庐断裂带大规模左行平移发生在早白垩世末期,推测为110—130Ma前。这一平移时代与太平洋的伊泽奈崎(Izanagi)板块向欧亚大陆斜向俯冲的时间基本一致。