Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency.     

短周期仪器记录在远震分析中的应用

地震泼由多种频率成份组成,在其传播过程中。由于地球介质的滤波作用,随着传播距离的增大。高频成份逐渐被衰减。周期越大的成份传播越远。因此,在地震观测上,不同频带的地震仪用于观测不同震中距范围的地震,使仪器较好地响应,就我国台网而言,短周期仪用于地方震、近震的监测,中长周期仪和长周期仪用于远震,极远震的监测,其中长周期仪偏重于记录极远震。但作者在实际分析工作中注意到,短周期仪的记录应用于远震,极远震的分析,显示出独特的作用,充分挖掘和利用短仪资料,将会更加丰富远震、极远震的震相资料。本文以高台地震台的资料为依据,从震中距和震级角度,与中长仪和长仪作比较,对短仪记录远震、极远震的震相及特征作了统计分析与初步探讨,并对新疆地区“影区”地震S波的记录、日本地区地震_PPcP等震相的出现提出了现象的存在,给出了相应的观测结果,以待步一步研究。     

“煤特征指数”与矿井瓦斯危险类型的关系

矿井瓦斯危险程度与煤层中瓦斯赋存状况及其泄出方式有关,并取决于多种地质条件和采掘工艺。其中,煤特征条件特别重要。本文分析了湖南省的5种矿井瓦斯危险类型以及相应的煤特征条件,提出了“煤特征指数(I_c)”这一概念。I_c是一项评价矿井瓦斯危险程度的综合指标。研究表明,矿井瓦斯危险愈严重,则其I_c值愈高。应用该项成果预测了16对矿井的瓦斯危险类型,取得了满意的效果。     

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.