SVD迭代模型在夏季降水预测中的应用

文中设计了一种基于SVD迭代的短期气候预测模型,通过选择适当的影响因子,建立与预测对象之间的联系,从而实现对气象场序列的预测。分别对华北16个测站和长江中下游地区30个测站1991—2000年近10a夏季(6—8月)降水做预测试验,平均均方误差分别为0.352和0.312,平均符号相关系数分别为0.575和0.623。此研究表明,基于SVD迭代的气候预测模型是一种非常有效的短期气候预测途径,具有很强的应用价值。     

首都北京及周边地区大气、水、土环境污染机理与调控原理

科技部科研院所社会公益专项资金重点项目“突发性强灾害天气预警系统（EWSSWE）”2006年6月6日通过验收。该系统是一个依托动力模式的数值预警系统，以WWW为平台，融贯了多种天气预报新技术，集富含信息量的强对流指数诊断预测、基于卫星和雷达产品的外推以及动力模式数值天气预报于一体；该系统开发的冰雹预报产品使本来并非预报量的冰雹作为动力模式后处理的产品输出从而赋予动力模式以直接预报冰雹的功能；     

对临汾人工影响天气工作的调研报告

人工增雨防雹是直接为工农业生产服务的公益性事业,有利于促进草木植被生长,可有效地扑救森林、草场火灾,是保护和改善生态环境的重要措施;可以减轻大气污染程度,改善空气质量,有益于人们的身心健康;可以缓解工业、农业和人民生活用水供需矛盾,促进社会经济可持续发展。分析表明,凡是降水量明显偏少的年份,粮食大都减产;年降雨量多的年份,粮食大都增产。这表明,人工增雨消雹对于经济建设和社会发展尤其是对农业生产有着重要的意义。     

Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model （RegCM_NCC） Part Ⅱ： The Experimental Seasonal Prediction

A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part I. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model’s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991–2000) for summer (June–August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.     

机载LiDAR技术

机载LiDAR集成了GPS、IMU、激光扫描仪新一代航空遥感系统,能利用飞行获取的原始数据直接生成DEM和正射影像图,而无需任何或仅需少量的地面控制点。与传统的摄影测量技术相比,机载LiDAR可以节省大量的人力、时间和经费。在过去十年,机载LiDAR作为精确、快速的地球表面三维测量方法已得到广泛的认同,本文详细介绍了机载LiDAR的基本原理、技术结构及数据处理流程。     

Carbonate Diagenesis Controlled by Glacioeustatic Sea-Level Changes： A Case Study from the Carboniferous-Permian Boundary Section at Xikou, China

The diagenesis of modern and ancient carbonatesedi ments has been widely studied and systematicallyreviewed since the 1960s (e .g. Moore ,2001 ,1989 ;Wang et al ., 1994 , 1991 ; McIlreath and Morrow,1990 ; Tucker and Bathurst , 1990 ; Schneidermannand Harris , 1985 ; Longman, 1980 ; Bathurst ,1975) . With the development of sequence stratigra-phy and its more widespread application, discussionabout the relationship between diagenesis and se-quence stratigraphy/sea-level changes ,as well as…     

商丘暴雨日及分布特征研究

对商丘国家观象台1954--2005年月报表中挑取的符合暴雨日条件的142个样本分析，结果表明：商丘暴雨日具有明显的季节性，频发于7、8月份；暴雨日年平均2．73个；日暴雨量最大（193．3mm）不超过200mm；最长连续暴雨日数不超过2日；连续暴雨日降水量累计（223．9mm）不超过250mm；1h最大降水量不超过70mm。暴雨目的年代际变化特征明显，20世纪80年代后暴雨日出现较晚，60--90年代的暴雨日数递减，90年代后有增加趋势；大暴雨日数自60年代起有逐步增加趋势。暴雨日对月、年降水量有显著贡献，4—9月暴雨日对月降水量的贡献很大，且从4月到7月暴雨目的贡献呈递增趋势。一年内暴雨日出现5次时，当年的年雨量为偏多年份。     

辽西朝阳地区晚侏罗世逆冲断裂及同构造沉积盆地系统

位于晚侏罗世燕山冲断带前缘拗陷盆地群东段的辽西金岭寺羊山盆地和北票盆地，形成于同沉积期的板内挤压变形。两个盆地横断面均显示出北西翼岩层陡立或倒转而南东翼平缓、以及同期碎屑堆积北西翼厚而南西翼薄的特点，具有典型的不对称结构。分别位于两个盆地北西侧的雷家营子和风凰山逆冲断裂带控制了它们的形成和演化。砾石成分统计分析显示，晚侏罗世土城子时期碎屑物质主要来源于辽西的西北部，即“内蒙地轴”上，是响应逆冲推覆活动的产物。两条断裂带及其所控制的盆地，构成了背驮式盆地构造系统，清楚地反映出这一时期的逆冲推覆扩展总体上指向SE方向。辽西地区土城子期盆地的形成和沉积充填是区域地壳缩短或增厚的重要方式之一。     

初论塔里木盆地砂岩储层中SiO2的溶蚀类型及其机理

根据显微镜观察,塔里木盆地砂岩储层中SiO₂溶蚀分为石英颗粒边缘溶蚀、次生加大边溶蚀和交代溶蚀。通过对石英颗粒和加大边溶蚀特征及其与粘土矿物组合、与碳酸盐胶结、与古油藏破坏以及现今油田水中Si离子含量等关系的综合研究,这些SiO₂溶蚀可能存在两种机理:碱性环境下的SiO₂溶蚀和有机酸(烃类微生物降解产生的有机酸以及有机质成熟产生的有机酸)引起的SiO₂溶蚀。第一种溶蚀类型较普遍,但程度微弱;第二种溶蚀类型主要发生在古油藏破坏和有机质成熟过程中,这种溶蚀较强烈但很局限。SiO₂的溶蚀作用可以为油气提供一定量的储集空间,这对于深埋的时代较老的志留-泥盆系储层具有重要意义。在古油藏中尽管烃类已经充注储层孔隙,但只要孔隙中存在有机酸或碱性孔隙水,SiO₂的溶蚀和石英次生加大的胶结等作用仍可进行。     

Constraining the stepwise migration of the eastern Tibetan Plateau margin by apatite fission track thermochronology

Granites sampled from Garzê-Litang thrust, Longmen Shan thrust, Garzê and Litang strike-slip faults in the eastern Tibetan Plateau have been analyzed with apatite fission track thermochronological method in this study. The measured fission track apparent ages, combined with the simulated annealing mod- eling of the thermal history, have been used to reconstruct the thermal evolutionary histories of the samples and interpret the active history of the thrusts and faults in these areas. Thermal history mod- eling shows that earlier tectonic cooling occurred in the Garzê-Litang thrust in Miocene (~20―16 Ma) whereas the later cooling occurred mainly in the Longmen Shan thrust since ~5 Ma. Our study sug- gests that the margin of eastern Tibetan Plateau was extended by stages: through strike-slip faults deformations and related thrusts, the upper crust formed the Garzê-Litang margin in the Miocene epoch and then moved to the Longmen Shan margin since ~5 Ma. During this process, the deformations of different phases in the eastern Tibetan Plateau were absorbed by the thrusts within them and conse- quently the tectonic events of long-distance slip and extrusion up to hundreds of kilometers have not been found.