Carbon costs and benefits of France’s biomass energy production targets

Background

Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.

Results

All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.

Conclusions

No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.

     

Effects of different soil and water conservation measures on hydrological extremes and flood processes in the Yanhe River,Loess Plateau,China

The runoff and sediment load of the Loess Plateau have changed significantly due to the implementation of soil and water conservation measures since the 1970s. However, the effects of soil and water conservation measures on hydrological extremes have rarely been considered. In this study, we investigated the variations in hydrological extremes and flood processes during different periods in the Yanhe River Basin (a tributary of the Loess Plateau) based on the daily mean runoff and 117 flood event data from 1956 to 2013. The study periods were divided into reference period (1956–1969), engineering measures period (1970–1995), and biological control measures period (1996–2013) according to the change points of the annual streamflow and the actual human activity in the basin. The results of the hydrological high extremes (HF1_max, HF3_max, HF7_max) exhibit a decreasing trend (P?<?0.01), whereas the hydrological low extremes (HBF1_min, HBF3_min, HBF7_min) show an increasing trend during 1956–2013. Compared with the hydrological extremes during the reference period, the hydrological high extremes increased during the engineering measures period at low (<?15%) and high frequency (>?80%), whereas decreased during the biological control measures period at almost all frequencies. The hydrological low extremes generally increased during both the engineering measures and biological control measures periods, particularly during the latter period. At the flood event scale, most flood event indices in connection with the runoff and sediment during the engineering measures period were significantly higher than those during the biological control measures period. The above results indicate that the ability to withstand hydrological extremes for the biological control measures was greater than that for the engineering measures in the studied basin. This work reveals the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on hydrological extremes in a typical basin of the Loess Plateau and hence can provide a useful reference for regional soil erosion control and disaster prevention policy-making.

     

Three decades of landslide activity in western Nepal: new insights into trends and climate drivers

In recent decades, landslide disasters in the Himalayas, as in other mountain regions, are widely reported to have increased. While some studies have suggested a link to increasing heavy rainfall under a warmer climate, others pointed to anthropogenic influences on slope stability, and increasing exposure of people and assets located in harm’s way. A lack of sufficiently high-resolution regional landslide inventories, both spatially and temporally, has prevented any robust consensus so far. Focusing on Far-Western Nepal, we draw on remote sensing techniques to create a regional inventory of 26,350 single landslide events, of which 8778 date to the period 1992–2018. These events serve as a basis for the analyses of landslide frequency relationships and trends in relation to precipitation and temperature datasets. Results show a strong correlation between the annual number of shallow landslides and the accumulated monsoon precipitation (r = 0.74). Furthermore, warm and dry monsoons followed by especially rainy monsoons produce the highest incidence of shallow landslides (r = 0.77). However, we find strong spatial variability in the strength of these relationships, which is linked to recent demographic development in the region. This highlights the role of anthropogenic drivers, and in particular road cutting and land-use change, in amplifying the seasonal monsoon influence on slope stability. In parallel, the absence of any long-term trends in landslide activity, despite widely reported increase in landslide disasters, points strongly to increasing exposure of people and infrastructure as the main driver of landslide disasters in this region of Nepal. By contrast, no climate change signal is evident from the data.

     

Impact of different sampling rates on precise point positioning performance using online processing service

In this study, the effect of different sampling rates (i.e. observation recording interval) on the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) solutions in terms of accurac...     

Evidence for the 8,200 a <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">b</Emphasis>.<Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">p</Emphasis>. cooling event in the middle Okinawa Trough

Based on new and existing data on oxygen isotopes, alkenone-surface seawater temperature trends, planktonic foraminifers, lithology, and clay mineral composition of piston cores, a distinct cooling event has been identified around 8,200 cal a b.p. in the middle Okinawa Trough, northwest Pacific. This corresponds to the 8,200 a b.p. cooling event recorded in many places of the Northern Hemisphere. During this event, the local temperature decreased by 1°C, and the δ¹⁸O value increased by 0.6‰. A strengthened Asian winter monsoon is the most probable cause for this event, which thus adds further credibility to the contention that we are dealing here with a global phenomenon.     

Evidence of hyperpycnal flows at the head of the meandering Kaoping Canyon off SW Taiwan

Using seismic and Chirp sonar profiles, this paper tests the hypothesis that hyperpycnal flows are the main factor controlling the formation and maintenance of the meandering Kaoping submarine canyon off SW Taiwan. Cross-section geometries, and erosional as well as depositional features vary along the canyon course. In the proximal, sinuous part of the canyon, down-cutting into the shelf strata has created a relief of 340 m. The cause of this intense erosion of the seafloor is suggested to be the frequent development of hyperpycnal flows. A seismic section across a meander in the distal part of the canyon shows levees formed by overspilled sediments at the outer bend, and a terrace characterized by relatively flat stratified facies at the inner bend. The geological setting and climatic conditions in SW Taiwan (e.g. earthquakes, typhoons, floods), as well as major river–canyon connections (for example, direct input of highly concentrated suspended sediment) would all promote hyperpycnal flow generation. This causes axial incision, canyon wall slumping, and the formation of levees by spill-over deposition in the upper reach of the Kaoping Canyon.     

Sediment resuspension events induced by the wake wash of deep-draft vessels

Hydrodynamics and sediment resuspension events, induced at the shoreline by a deep-draft vessel passing nearby, are described. Measurements (pressure, currents and turbidity) were obtained at 4 Hz, on a lower beach ~50 m from a channel where large car ferries operate in Wootton Creek, Isle of Wight. The study focuses on a representative 8-min 32-s-long record, during which two large vessels passed the channel section. At the shore, the passage of each vessel induced a long-period water-level drawdown, followed by a water-level oscillation (seiche) of similar period, and the short-period waves of the wake. Both drawdowns were the main constituents of the prevailing wave pattern. The second drawdown was the largest in amplitude, in response to a higher speed of the ferry, and the influence of the seiche which had been activated during the preceding event. Two successive peaks of turbidity were observed shortly after this drawdown. Analyses of current velocity and direction indicate that the sediments resuspended originated from the shallower upper beach. Anthropogenically induced erosion of the foreshore is predicted at Wootton Creek.     

Dynamics of coastline changes in Mexico

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The goal of our work was to locate and quantify changes that occurred in 66% of the Mexican coastline, based on four land cover maps generated by the Mexican...     

Dynamic metabolite alterations of Portunus trituberculatus during larval development

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - A mass mortality often occurs from molting to the megalopa stage during the larval development of the swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus. Larvae with...     

Sea Level Prediction in the Yellow Sea From Satellite Altimetry With a Combined Least Squares-Neural Network Approach

Accessible high-quality observation datasets and proper modeling process are critically required to accurately predict sea level rise in coastal areas. This study focuses on developing and validating a combined least squares-neural network approach applicable to the short-term prediction of sea level variations in the Yellow Sea, where the periodic terms and linear trend of sea level change are fitted and extrapolated using the least squares model, while the prediction of the residual terms is performed by several different types of artificial neural networks. The input and output data used are the sea level anomalies (SLA) time series in the Yellow Sea from 1993 to 2016 derived from ERS-1/2, Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, and Envisat satellite altimetry missions. Tests of different neural network architectures and learning algorithms are performed to assess their applicability for predicting the residuals of SLA time series. Different neural networks satisfactorily provide reliable results and the root mean square errors of the predictions from the proposed combined approach are less than 2?cm and correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SLA are up to 0.87. Results prove the reliability of the combined least squares-neural network approach on the short-term prediction of sea level variability close to the coast.