Simulation Study on the Impact of Taihang Mountain Slopes on Downhill Front Cyclone Rainstorm

The statistical and diagnostic analysis of precipitation in Hebei Province in the past six years shows that the mid-south of the North China Plain on the east side of the Taihang Mountains is an area of frequent rainstorm disasters in summer. The rain belt is mostly distributed along the Taihang Mountains, and the rainfall is often over 700mm. Focus was on the summer downhill frontal Yellow River cyclone, which accounted for 20% of the 73 storm days in the statistical samples. The analysis of the typical frontal cyclone heavy rain in 2016 shows that the meridional distribution of the Taihang Mountains cooperates with the climbing mountain jet in the north of the cyclone and the southward flow in the west of the cyclone, leading to the formation of a deep narrow cold temperature trough along the mountain orientation. It enhances the temperature gradient in the frontal cyclone, enhances the baroclinicity of the cyclone and the intensity of the rotating wind, resulting in augmentation of the cyclone and slowing of the eastward movement. Through the cooperation of the entanglement of the cyclone jet and the mountain block, a deep and abundant water vapor environment is formed, and the moving westward of water vapor flux and the low-level water vapor main body are hindered; The high-energy tongue convection instability on the eastern side of the mountain range is formed, a strong uplift with abundant water vapor masses is triggered, and three critical areas of vertical motion occurred, which restricts the rainstorm locations. Numerical experiments on the mechanism of the influence of the slope of the Taihang Mountains on heavy rain show that the downhill rainstorm area is parallel to the mountain range, and the meridional mountain range can cause a greater range of heavy precipitation. It is also easy to cause double frontal precipitation locally by a same cyclonic warm front and cold front, resulting in a long duration of heavy rain. The slope of the mountain is proportional to the intensity of the mountain block and forms the wet convection instability with the dry at lower and wet at upper overlapping on a thermal instability of the front zone with cold at lower and warm at upper, such as the total instability is stronger. The slope of the mountain is proportional to the increase and maintenance time of the cyclone decompression during downhill. It is inversely proportional to the decline to the North China Plain, which affects the path and speed of the cyclone eastward movement.     

新疆卡特巴阿苏金铜矿区二长花岗岩锆石SHRIMPU-Pb年龄及地质意义

新疆卡特巴阿苏金铜矿床是在那拉提中天山构造带内发现的首个特大型金铜矿床,矿床赋存于二长花岗岩体的脆性断裂破碎带内。通过对二长花岗岩的锆石进行SHRIMP U-Pb测年,获得25粒锆石加权平均值为(359.3±5.3)Ma,表明该岩体侵位时间为晚泥盆世末期,同时限定了卡特巴阿苏金矿金铜矿床的形成年龄上限为(359.3±5.3)Ma。     

新疆富蕴地区前寒武纪地层的物质组成及其构造变形特征

新疆西北部阿尔泰地区发育一套片岩、片麻岩,从境内铁列克以东的塔乌乃萨孜一带向东南延伸到蒙古阿尔泰山南坡,统称冲乎尔—青河构造建造带.该带以特殊的构造位置和复杂的变形变质特征,成为研究阿尔泰造山带发展、演化的重要热点之一.通过对新疆西北部阿尔泰地区变质岩(前寒武纪地层)的物质组成、变形变质方面的资料收集和分析研究,区域地层对比等,按构造—岩石(地层)单位进行了划分.认为该套地层经受过中深层次的区域动力热流变质作用,变质达角闪岩相,是阿尔泰地区前寒武系基底的组成部分,其中的古元古代克木齐岩群和中元古代苏普特岩群变形具有多期次和多层次的特征,不同构造层次的变形均保留了丰富的构造变形形迹.     

阿尔泰可可托海地区泥盆纪花岗岩特征及其地质意义

阿尔泰南缘可可托海地区发育大量的400Ma左右的泥盆纪花岗岩。岩石SiO2含量在62.36%～77.41%, 里特曼指数σ介于0.43～1.88, A/CNK 值在0.97～1.12, 属中钾、钙碱性、准铝质-弱过铝质岩石。具有富集Rb、Th、U等大离子亲石元素和轻稀土元素, 相对亏损重稀土和Nb、Ta、Ti等高场强元素, 弱-中的负Eu异常的岛弧岩浆岩特征。结合区域地质资料, 可可托海地区泥盆纪花岗岩形成于活动大陆边缘的陆缘弧构造环境, 是古亚洲洋向北俯冲的产物。     

从源到汇:大别造山带物源区与合肥盆地南缘中生代沉积耦合关系——来自碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄证据

形成于印支期的大别造山带和周缘中生代盆地构成了一级源汇系统,其中位于造山带北缘的合肥盆地中生代地层发育,且以盆地南缘出露最好,这为盆山源汇系统研究提供了理想的沉积记录。笔者从合肥盆地南缘采集了10个砂岩样品和1个砾岩样品,进行锆石U/Pb (LA-ICP-MS)定年分析,获得了742个有效年龄(置信度不小于85%),范围为113±3. 6-2983 Ma。这些碎屑锆石年龄谱可以被分为5个年龄段:113-137 Ma,峰值131 Ma; 184-273 Ma,峰值226 Ma; 274-517. 3 Ma,具有2个峰值280 Ma和474 Ma; 532-856. 6 Ma,具有3个峰值572 Ma、649 Ma和772 Ma; 1786-2600 Ma,具有2个峰值2035 Ma和2506 Ma。同时,总结了物源区大别造山带不同单元锆石U-Pb年龄特征。根据锆石U/Pb年龄和Th/U值,发现这5个年龄段比较准确地记录了物源区地质体,分别是早白垩世的岩浆岩、大别山高压—超高压变质岩、北淮阳的浅变质岩、北大别的正片麻岩和卢镇关群变质岩。根据锆石最小年龄,修正了合肥盆地南缘中生代地层格架,为源汇系统研究确立了时间框架。合肥盆地南缘中生代沉积可以分为4个演化阶段:晚三叠世瑞替期—早侏罗世辛涅缪斯期、中—晚侏罗世、早白垩世早期和早白垩世晚期,并据此确定了每个阶段主要物源区特征及其时空变化。碎屑锆石U/Pb年龄和Th/U值限定了大别造山带仅存在三叠纪的超高压变质作用,且超高压变质岩折返到地表的最早时间是晚三叠世瑞替期,大别造山带大陆岛弧发育的时间是新元古代。上述研究结果不仅为恢复大别造山带构造古地理做出了新的贡献,而且更为盆山源汇系统研究提供了一个实例。     

Application and Verification of Joint Probability Method in Potential Forecast for Severe Convective Weather in Anhui Province

In consideration of large uncertainties in severe convective weather forecast, ensemble forecasting is a dynamic method developed to quantitatively estimate forecast uncertainty. Based on ensemble output, joint probability is a post-processing method to delineate key areas where weather event may actually occur by taking account of the uncertainty of several important physical parameters. An investigation of the environments of little rainfall convection and strong rainfall convection from April to September (warm season) during 2009-2015 was presented using daily disastrous weather data, precipitation data of 80 stations in Anhui province and NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data. Through ingredients-based forecasting methodology and statistical analysis,four convective parameters characterizing two types of convection were obtained, respectively, which were used to establish joint probability forecasting together with their corresponding thresholds. Using the ECMWF ensemble forecast and observations from April to September during 2016-2017, systematic verification mainly based on ROC and case study of different weather processes were conducted. The results demonstrate that joint probability method is capable of discriminating little rainfall convection and non-convection with comparable performance for different lead times, which is more favorable to identifying the occurrence of strong rainfall convection. The joint probability of little rainfall convection is a good indication for the occurrence of regional or local convection, but may produce some false alarms. The joint probability of strong rainfall convection is good at indicating regional concentrated short-term heavy precipitation as well as local heavy rainfall. There are also individual missing reports in this method, and in practice, 10% can be roughly used as joint probability threshold to achieve relative high TS score. Overall, ensemble-based joint probability method can provide practical short-term probabilistic guidance for severe convective weather.     

海南岛西北部海岸线时空变化分析

基于遥感与GIS技术,利用高空间分辨率遥感卫星SPOT-5和GF-2影像数据,对海南岛西北部地区海口市南渡江—东方市2005年和2016年2个时期的海岸线进行人机交互解译,并对其10 a来的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明: 10 a间,海南岛西北部海岸线时空变化显著,主要影响因素为人工开发建设; 人工海岸线增幅达到113%,其占比由2005年的24.3%上升至2016年的51.6%; 除部分淤泥质海岸线和砂质海岸线转化为人工海岸线外,自然海岸线以侵蚀为主,局部地区有少量淤积。不同地区海岸线变化特点不同: 儋州市和澄迈县海岸线资源丰富,开发力度较大; 临高县和昌江黎族自治县自然海岸线以侵蚀为主,淤积少; 东方市和澄迈县海岸线侵蚀较少,较易淤积。分析结果可为海南岛西北部海岸线调查、开发和保护提供一定的科学依据。     

马坑铁矿疏干条件下地下水温度场特征及其指示意义

在矿区长期疏干条件下,不仅地下水流场发生了重大改变,地下水的温度场也发生了明显变化,仔细研究这种地下水的温度变化特征可以深化矿区水文地质条件及其变化的认识。在利用福建马坑铁矿长期监测的地下水温度数据的基础上,分析了疏干条件下地下水温度场的平面分布以及变化特征,探讨了影响地下水温度平面分布以及动态变化的因素。结果表明,矿区地下水的运动特征决定了矿区地下水温度的平面分布呈现西高东低的整体趋势,以及南侧南西高北东低,北侧北西高南东低的局部趋势,受地下水循环深度的影响,副井附近出现高温异常;由于矿区接受温度较低的补给水源逐渐增大,近几年来矿区地下水温呈现整体下降的趋势,且下降速率逐年增大,反映了矿区地下水的补给还在逐渐增加。     

砂岩类脆性无序介质连续破坏过程的细观模拟

为了分析砂岩类无序介质在各种荷载作用下的连续破坏过程,本文提出了梁-颗粒细观模型。在此模型中,介质被离散为一系列的颗粒单元,这些颗粒单元均由弹脆性的梁单元联结。颗粒的力学行为由离散单元法和有限单元法确定。当某个梁单元所受应力超过其强度时,就随即将它从计算网络中剔除,以模拟介质的破坏行为。为了验证数值模型的可靠性,分别从破坏模式和荷载-位移曲线两方面与物理模型实验进行了对比,结果表明两者基本一致。此外,探讨了无序性对介质裂纹分布形式的影响,并用分维表述了裂纹分布与荷载强度之间的内在联系。      

CFG桩复合地基沉降计算探讨

CFG桩（水泥粉煤灰碎石桩）复合地基是新近发展起来的一项地基处理技术,具有承载力提高幅度大,地基沉降小,适用范围广,造价低,施工方便等特点。阐述了CFG桩复合地基加固机理及沉降模式,详细讨论了其沉降计算,包括它的计算厚度、影响因素、压缩模量选取及附加压力计算等。提出按变形控制理论进行变形计算有其优点,但仍有很多工作要做。