Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

一次西南低涡过程的地面场中尺度分析

本文运用带通滤波分析方法,对四川省1981年7月由西南低涡等天气系统引起的大暴雨过程作了地面气象要素场的中尺度诊断分析。结果表明,带通滤波后的场具有明显的中尺度特征,其中一些物理量场的适当配置与6小时后的暴雨中心有较好的对应关系。说明了此带通滤波方法在实际业务预报中具有一定的使用价值。     

阿吾拉勒山西段二叠纪火山岩组合与构造环境分析

阿吾拉勒山体西段发育了厚度巨大的下二叠统火山岩,这些火山岩均属碱性玄武岩系列,以钾质类型为主,钠质类型次之,岩浆演化呈现出跨越B型趋势。这种火山活动是在大陆地壳内部产生的,代表了陆内裂谷演化的早期阶段。在早二叠世末期,由于受到新源运动的影响,这种火山活动被终止了。     

Sources of ore-forming fluids and metallic materials in the Jinwozi lode gold deposit,eastern Tianshan Mountains of China

This paper presents gas compositions and H-, O-isotope compositions of sulfide- and quartz-hosted fluid inclusions, and S-, Pb-isotope compositions of sulfide separates collected from the principal Stage 2 ores in Veins 3 and 210 of the Jinwozi lode gold deposit, eastern Tianshan Mountains of China. Fluid inclusions trapped in quartz and sphalerite are dominantly primary. H-and O-isotopic compositions of pyrite-hosted fluid inclusions indicate two major contributions to the ore-forming fluid that include the degassed magma and the meteoric-derived but rock ¹⁸O-buffered groundwater. However, H- and O-isotopic compositions of quartz-hosted fluid inclusions essentially suggest the presence of groundwater. Sulfide-hosted fluid inclusions show considerably higher abundances of gaseous species CO₂, N₂, H₂S, etc. than quartz-hosted ones. The linear trends among inclusion gaseous species reflect the mixing tendency between the gas-rich magmatic fluid and the groundwater. The relative enrichment of gaseous species in sulfide-hosted fluid inclusions, coupled with the banded ore structure indicating alternate precipitation of quartz with sulfide minerals, suggests that the magmatic fluid has been inputted to the ore-forming fluid in pulsation. Sulfur and lead isotope compositions of pyrite and galena separates indicate an essential magma derivation for sulfur but the multiple sources for metallic materials from the mantle to the bulk crust.

     

A Type IV Radio Burst Associated with Type III Burst,Pulsation and Spike Emissions

A type IV radio burst accompanied by several normal- and reverse-drifting type III bursts, multiple long-term quasi-periodic pulsations and spikes was observed with the radio spectrometers (1.0–2.0 and 2.6–3.8 GHz) at National Astronomical Observatories of China (NAOC) on 23 September 1998. In combination with the images of Siberian Solar Radio Telescope (SSRT) of Russia, the complex and multiple magnetic structures inferred from the radio bursts reveal the existence of both large-scale and small-scale magnetic structures. This event suggests that the geometries of coronal magnetic fields contain multiple discrete electron acceleration/injection sites at different heights, and extended open and closed magnetic field lines. It can be shown that the energetic electrons gain access to open, diverging and closed field lines thus producing different types of radio bursts. From the characteristics of position, polarization, dispersion and displacement of the sources, the model of the type IV event is supported, which involves synchrotron emission from the electrons confined by the rapid scattering through the interaction of hydromagnetic wave with particles.     

马卡良335的微光变观测

介绍了马卡良 335分别发生于 1998年和 1999年的两次短时标光变。其中的一次是微光变 ,发生于 1999年 11月 2 0日 ,微光变区域的大小约 0 .80 7光时。还对微光变的可能机制进行了讨论     

Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.     

On the cause of total irradiance variations observed by the CCD solar surface photometer

Spatially-resolved precise photometric observations of the whole Sun at wavelengths of 545nm (FWHM 40nm) were carried out by using the CCD solar surface photometer. Bright parts of photospheric network have contrast of several tenths of percent, and their contribution to the total irradiance is approximately half that of active region faculae. The solar irradiance variations estimated from sunspots, faculae and active network (contrast>0.3%) agreed with the ACRIM data. The quiet Sun irradiance used in the present results was different from the total irradiance at the solar minimum observed by the ACRIM, which indicates unmeasured components (contrast>0.1%) cause the 11-year cycle irradiance variation.     

ELECTROCHEMICAL CORROSION BEHAVIOR OF STEEL IN THE JUNCTURE AREA OF SEA CLAY AND SAND

Corrosion behavior of steel in the juncture area of sea clay and sand was studied. The results show that galvanic corrosion occurred between steel samples buried in sea clay and sand, and that the polarity of the galvanic cell reversed after some testing later. The cause of reversing of polarity is discussed.