鄂北一次超级对流单体的双偏振雷达特征分析

利用湖北省随州市S波段双偏振雷达资料及常规观测资料,对2020年5月4日鄂北随州出现的超级单体风暴进行分析.结果 发现:①在有利天气背景作用下,形成了上干冷下暖湿的垂直层结、0～6 km中等强度垂直风切变以及地面辐合线,为强风暴的发生发展提供环境条件和触发条件.②超级单体发展过程中,观测到前侧"V"形入流缺口、中气旋、...     

TRP与Logit概率预报模式计算比较分析

本文分别利用TRP模式及Logit模式与MOS相结合的方法,对南京市的能见度及云量进行了24小时概率预报试验。通过对两种模式的比较分析,结果表明：Logit模式的拟合率比TRP模式的高,而在实际预报中,TRP模式的预报准确率高。同时,TRP模式的计算更为方便灵活。     

湖泊水位资料与模型模拟恢复的6000年前全球湿润状况的对比研究

本项研究是ＰＭＩＰ（ＰａｌａｅｏｃｌｉｍａｔｅＭｏｄｅｌｉｎｇＩｎｔｅｒｃｏｍｐａｒｉｓｏｎＰｒｏｊｅｃｔ）国际合作项目中有关模型模拟与观测资料对比的一部分。模型试验对象是６０００ｙｒ．ＢＰ的全球湿润状况。模拟试验以检测太阳辐射变化对全球大尺度气候系统的影响为主要目的。观测资料是利用地质证据恢复的古湖泊水位变化,实际上是某一地区的有效降水（降水减蒸发）的变化。通过两者的比较发现,所有模拟试验均能重现６０００ｙｒ．ＢＰ在亚洲南部与非洲北部的湿润环境,从而证实了因太阳辐射变化导致的亚洲与非洲季风的增强。但模拟的季风增强无论是强度还是范围均小于地质记录。原因很可能是模拟试验中下垫面特征用“现代”的来处理。模拟试验对北半球夏季辐射增加造成的西风带北移及由此引起的中纬度地区的气候变化不够成功。绝大多数模拟对受洋流与海温影响较大的地区是失败的。主要原因可能是所有ＰＭＩＰ中的模拟试验都未考虑海洋的作用。     

GPRS自动雨量站状态监控和数据应用系统

焦作市气象局开发的GPRS自动雨量站状态监控和数据应用系统包括两个层面：一是基于C／S结构的数据下载辅助程序,实现读取远程数据库雨量资料存入本地数据库;二是基于Web平台的数据处理应用主程序,实现对辖区乡镇自动雨量站运行状态监控、暴雨雨量告警、区域雨量图显示、雨量等值线分析、RSS数据推送等功能。系统构建了较完善的市、县乡镇自动雨量站管理、共享、服务平台,且在一年的业务使用中运行良好。系统的不足之处是短信发送范围较小,且因Web应用程序引入外部程序配置文件过多,导致管理不便。     

焦作市农业气候资源及变化特点

焦作市的农业气候资源丰富,雨热同季,并有不完全同步的特性,10℃以上活动积温为4653~4960℃.d,降水量为548.8~590.5 mm,主要分布在4-10月,日照时数2107.5~2444.9 h。近40 a热量资源呈增多趋势,20世纪90年代的热量资源明显多于前30 a,水分变化不明显,日照时数呈递减趋势。     

Tropical Cyclone Energy Dispersion and Possible Self Maintenance Mechanism of the Synoptic Scale Wave Trains

The interaction between tropical cyclone (TC) and the large-scale mean flows such as the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is investigated using a three-dimensional primitive equation model. Once a TC develops in the vicinity of the ITCZ region where satisfies both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities, the southeastward energy dispersion from the TC may disturb the ITCZ and thus help its breakdown. Cumulus convection can be organized in the region of cyclonic circulation, and the interaction between convective heating and the perturbation circulation may enhance the development of the waves, leading to the generation of a new tropical cyclone to the east. While the TC moves to the high latitude, the ITCZ will reform. Though repeating of this process, a synoptic-scale wave train oriented in the northwest-southeast direction can be generated and self-maintained. The results suggest that the mutual interaction among the low-frequency background flow, wave train pattern and TCs provides a possible mechanism for the origin of the summer synoptic scale wave train pattern over the western North Pacific.     

The permeability of the Elkhorn fault zone,South Park,Colorado

The purposes of this study are to use both field and modeling approaches to characterize the permeability of a fault and to assess the role of the fault on regional ground water flow. The study subject is the Elkhorn fault, a low-angle reverse fault that brings Precambrian crystalline rocks over the sediments of Colorado's South Park Basin. The fault is hypothesized to act as a low-permeability barrier to flow, restricting interaction between the crystalline aquifer and the basin sediments. To test this hypothesis and to better predict the permeability structure of the fault, we synthesized geologic data to create a geologic model of the fault, conducted aquifer tests to estimate the hydrogeologic properties of the fault zone, and used ground water modeling to test the influence of a range of hydraulic properties for the fault zone on ground water flow in the region. Our study suggests that the fault is a low-permeability feature. Estimated heads are best matched to observations by modeling the fault as a 10-foot-thick interval of low-permeability fault gouge. Steady-state flow models show that much of the flow in the study area is topographically driven near land surface. Flow rates decrease with depth in the aquifers. In the footwall, ground water moves updip in the Michigan-San Isabel syncline to discharge in the South Park Basin. In the hanging wall, ground water moves east to a regional ground water divide. Sensitivity analyses indicate that hydraulic heads are most sensitive to changes in hydraulic conductivity and recharge.     

Pattern Characteristics of Foreshock Sequences

—Earthquake clusterings in both space and time have various forms, in particular, two typical examples are the foreshock sequences and earthquake swarms. Based on the analysis of 8 foreshock sequences in mainland China during 1966–1996, this study concentrates on the pattern characteristics of foreshock sequences. The following pattern characteristics of foreshock sequences have been found (1) the epicenters of foreshock sequences were densely concentrated in space; (2) the focal mechanisms of foreshocks were similar to that of the main shock. Such consistency of focal mechanisms with main shocks did not exist in aftershock series as well as in several earthquake swarms; (3) we found no case in mainland China during the past thirty years that a main shock is preceded by an earthquake clustering with inconsistent focal mechanisms. Finally, we found 5% of the main shocks in mainland China are preceded by foreshock sequences.     

A Simple Relation to Constrain Groundwater Models Using Surface Deformation

A simple relation between pore pressure change and one-dimensional surface deformation is presented. The relation is for pore pressure change in a confined aquifer that causes surface deformation. It can be applied to groundwater models of any discretization and is computationally efficient. The estimated surface deformation from model results can be compared to observed surface deformation through geodetic techniques such as Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar. Model parameters then are constrained using the observed surface deformation. The validity of this relation is shown through constraint of model parameters for surface uplift due to pore pressure increase caused by wastewater disposal injection.