Post‐processing of ensemble forecasts in low‐flow period

For water supply, navigational, ecological protection or water quality control purposes, there is a great need in knowing the likelihood of the river level falling below a certain threshold. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) based on simulations of deterministic hydrologic models is widely used to assess this likelihood. Raw ESP results can be biased in both the ensemble means and the spreads. In this study, we applied a modified general linear model post‐processor (GLMPP) to correct these biases. The modified GLMPP is built on the basis of regression of simulated and observed streamflow calculated on the basis of canonical events, instead of the daily values as is carried out in the original GLMPP. We conducted the probabilistic analysis of post‐processed ESP results falling below pre‐specified low‐flow levels at seasonal time scale. Raw ESP forecasts from the 1980 to 2006 periods by four different land surface models (LSMs) in eight large river basins in the continental USA are included in the analysis. The four LSMs are Noah, Mosaic, variable infiltration capacity and Sacramento models. The major results from this study are as follows: (1) a modified GLMPP was proposed on the basis of canonical events; (2) post‐processing can improve the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty of hydrologic forecasts; (3) post‐processing can help deal with the effect of human activity; and (4) raw simulation results from different models vary greatly in different basins. However, post‐processing can always remove model biases under different conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the behavior of sandstone based on generalized plasticity concept

With the concept of generalized plasticity, a constitutive model for describing the deformation behavior of sandstone is proposed in this paper. This proposed model is characterized by the following features: (i) nonlinear elasticity under hydrostatic and shear loading; (ii) associated flow rule for pre‐peak simulation; (iii) substantial plastic deformation during shear loading; and (iv) significant shear dilation and distortion prior to the failure state. This model requires 10 material parameters, including three for elasticity and seven for plasticity. All of the parameters can be determined, in a straightforward manner, by the suggested procedures. The proposed model has been validated by comparing the triaxial test results of the Mushan sandstone under different hydrostatic stress, different stress paths, and cyclic loading condition. It is also versatile in simulating the deformation behaviors of two other sandstones. Upon slight modification of the model, the post‐peak behavior of sandstone can be reasonably predicted using proposed model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relaxation Factor Effects in the Non-Linear Mixed Spectral Finite Difference Model of Flow Over Topographic Features

The nonlinear version of the mixed spectral finite difference model of atmospheric boundary-layer flow over topography is reviewed. The relations between the stability of the iteration scheme and its relaxation parameter are discussed. Suitable choice of the relaxation factor improves the computational stability on terrain with maximum slope up to 0.5 or 0.6 in certain circumstances. Examples of relatively high slope terrain are used to test the stability. A two-dimensional version of the model is considered. More detailed simulations are studied and analyzed for a comparison with wind-tunnel flow over periodic sinusoidal surfaces. An application on real topography is given for Bolund hill in Roskilde, Denmark.     

裴李岗遗址出土石磨盘表面淀粉粒的鉴定与分析

文章论述了从河南新郑裴李岗遗址(8500 ～7000aB.P.)出土的8件石磨盘表面提取的1000多颗淀粉粒的研究情况,根据其形态特征分析,其来源至少可分为栎属( Quercus spp.)果实(橡子)、小麦族(Triticeae Dumort.)、粟(Setaria italica)或黍(Panicum miliac...     

基于宏观经济的区域水资源多目标集成系统

将区域水资源规划纳入宏观经济范畴,阐述了基于宏观经济的区域水资源系统的概念,并以此为基础,建立了区域水资源规划多目标集成系统。该系统以宏观经济子模型及其它子模型为基础,并在多目标分析模型中集系统要素为一体,形成系统的总控模型。该系统还集预测、模拟、优化及决策分析等功能为一体,以建立一个完善的区域水资源规划分析系统。     

THE CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS OF SLOPE NET RADIATION IN CHINA

By using the climatological calculating method for each component of slope surface net radiation proposedby the authors,calculations and analyses are done of the distribution features of slope net radiation in Chinawith emphasis on the discussion of variations of slope net radiation in typical stations and sites with slope direc-tion,slope,latitude and season.The distribution features of net radiation on the north and south slopes are,for the first time,mapped and discussed,revealing the great difference on the national basis,and thus acquiringa new interesting result that the negative-value area of winter net radiation on the north slope(20°)can reachYunnan and Guizhou Provinces and middle and upper reaches of the Changjiang River.     

CLIMATOLOGICAL STUDIES ON NET RADIATION IN CHINA

An established climatic calculation scheme for estimating the components of surface radiation budget is conducted at 223 stations throughout the country.The spatial patterns of net radiation (NR) and its components suggest that the high-value belt is steadily situated over the Yarlung Zangbo Basin in the southern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and over the eastern Inner Mongolian Plateau,with the low-value belt over Sichuan-Guizhou mountainous temain.The pattern changes a little with the transition of seasons.Temporally,the NR's annual changes,especially its maximizing month,are closely related to the coming of rainy season.The relative computation emor is 2.7% for global radiation (GR).4.0% for surface albedo(SA),9.4% for effective radiation (ER),and 8.9% for NR.     

The effect of changes in surface resistance on temperature and humidity fields and fluxes of sensible and latent heat

In this paper we consider temperature (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGafuiMdeLbae% baaaa!377B!\[\bar \Theta \]) and specific humidity (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmyuayaara% aaaa!36DA!\[\bar Q\]) fields in the lower part of the planetary boundary layer and present a method for calculating the way these variables and their fluxes vary over changes in available surface moisture expressed as a surface resistance. Near the surface, the turbulence is close to equilibrium and an eddy diffusivity model enables the changes in (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGafuiMdeLbae% baaaa!377B!\[\bar \Theta \]), % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmyuayaara% aaaa!36DA!\[\bar Q\], sensible heat flux (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmOrayaara% WaaSbaaSqaaiaadIeaaeqaaaaa!37C8!\[\bar F_H \]), and latent heat flux (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmOrayaara% WaaSbaaSqaaiaadweaaeqaaaaa!37C5!\[\bar F_E \]) to be determined in terms of the assumed mean wind, turbulence profiles and upwind profiles of temperature and humidity. An important advantage of this method is that it is possible to consider arbitrary changes in surface properties.     

应用航空摄影资料编制高山峡谷地区正射影像图

本文阐述了利用既有比例尺为1:4.5万和1:3.5万的航摄像片及1:5万成图的航测外业控制成果,经内业空中三角测量加密定向点,采用解析测图-正射投影系统,编制成318幅1:1万高山峡谷地区的正射影像图的技术。经过检查,成图质量达到了技术设计标准,满足土地资源调查制图精度要求。