农业干旱监测研究进展与展望

本文全面分析了农业干旱的概念内涵及其与其他干旱类型之间的关系,进而从基于站点监测和基于遥感监测两个方面,系统梳理了国内外农业干旱监测的近今进展,对比了不同干旱监测指标的适用范围和局限性;同时,通过文献统计和重要文献引用揭示了国内外农业干旱监测研究的发展历程和最新进展,即农业干旱监测指标从传统的单一气象监测指标逐渐向气象与遥感相结合的综合监测指标转变。最后,在分析农业干旱监测现有挑战和困境的基础上,将农业干旱监测未来发展趋向归纳为5点展望,即进一步明晰农业干旱发生机理和受旱过程、识别农业干旱影响因素及其相互作用关系、构建多时空尺度农业干旱监测模型、耦合农业干旱定性表征与定量评估模型以及提高农业干旱监测模型中遥感数据的应用水平。     

Spatiotemporal changes of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012

In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012 and their possible driving factors using daily minimum temperature data from 121 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia and the surrounding areas. These data were analyzed utilizing a piecewise regression model, a Sen+Mann- Kendall model, and a correlation analysis. Results demonstrated that (1) the frequency of single-station cold surges decreased in Inner Mongolia during the study period, with a linear tendency of -0.5 times/10a (-2.4 to 1.2 times/10a). Prior to 1991, a significant decreasing trend of -1.1 times/10a (-3.3 to 2.5 times/10a) was detected, while an increasing trend of 0.45 times/10a (-4.4 to 4.2 times/10a) was found after 1991. On a seasonal scale, the trend in spring cold surges was consistent with annual values, and the most obvious change in cold surges occurred during spring. Monthly cold surge frequency displayed a bimodal structure, and November witnessed the highest incidence of cold surge. (2) Spatially, the high incidence of cold surge is mainly observed in the northern and central parts of Inner Mongolia, with a higher occurrence observed in the northern than in the central part. Inter-decadal characteristic also revealed that high frequency and low frequency regions presented decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, between 1960 and 1990. High frequency regions expanded after the 1990s, and regions exhibiting high cold surge frequency were mainly distributed in Tulihe, Xiao’ergou, and Xi Ujimqin Banner. (3) On an annual scale, the cold surge was dominated by AO, NAO, CA, APVII, and CQ. However, seasonal differences in the driving forces of cold surges were detected. Winter cold surges were significantly correlated with AO, NAO, SHI, CA, TPI, APVII, CW, and IZ, indicating they were caused by multiple factors. Autumn cold surges were mainly affected by CA and IM, while spring cold surges were significantly correlated with CA and APVII.     

Environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations in mid-eastern provinces and cities of China

The studies on environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations are helpful to design and implement environmental protection countermeasures.In order to eliminate the adverse effects of insufficient observation values on the accuracy of regression results and dynamic information quantity of fitting equation during empirical study,panel data of the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China from 1985 to 2007 were selected based on the adjustment of classical regression model in this paper.Panel unit root test and panel cointegration analysis method were applied to investigating the environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations in the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China and its three groups divided by foreign trade dependence.The results show that all scale effects are positive,while all technical effects are negative and unable to counteract positive scale effects.Foreign trade development is regarded as an important cause for outstanding eco-environmental problems in the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China.Total effects and structural effects are significantly different among different groups because of spatial variations in environmental policies,export destinations,source of FDI,etc.Following the principle of′coordinating generality and considering differences comprehensively′,it is essential to issue a series of policies and countermeasures corresponding to differences in regional environmental effect of foreign trade,in order to coordinate the relationship between foreign trade development and eco-environment in each region.     

基于竖直基线摄影测量的电力线测量方法

对电力线进行定期巡查测量是保障输电线路的稳定和安全的重要手段。针对当前巡线方式存在的可靠性差、灵活性低、成本高等问题,本文研究了一种基于竖直基线摄影测量的电力线测量方法：巡线人员利用便携式竖直基线双目立体相机在野外对电力线进行拍摄,在巡线中或事后对拍摄得到的立体像对中进行准确测量。本文描述了系统设计与技术方法、剖析了系统检校与测量中的关键技术,并利用几组实验证明了本方法的精确性和可行性。     

欧亚北方森林MODIS 14数据的林火变化分析——以俄罗斯欧洲地区为例

人为或自然因素造成的森林火灾常导致森林覆盖和结构的变化,对森林碳循环产生重大影响。MODIS热异常-火灾产品(MOD14)包含地表火灾位置、可信度、火点辐射能量及其他属性信息,可用于火灾频率、等级及其变化的监测。本研究以俄罗斯欧洲地区的北方森林为研究对象,采用2005-2010年每日MODIS14数据和GIS空间分析方法,对研究区过火像元进行判别提取,分析该地区林火时空变化规律,并探讨驱动因素。结果显示,俄罗斯欧洲地区森林火灾主要分布在中南部。近年来,火灾数量呈上升趋势,2010年的火灾覆盖范围是2005年的1.5倍;年内火灾发生情况随时间波动,火险期为每年的4-10月;极端干旱天气造成的的特大型火灾事件在本研究结果中得以反映。     

胶东半岛海产养殖地下咸水分布特征及开发利用现状

胶东半岛位于山东省胶莱河以东,区内海岸线全长约1 700km,沿海滩涂面积约500km2。由于该区特殊的自然地理和地质环境条件,赋存有适宜海产养殖的地下咸水。该文依据大量的基础资料,阐述了胶东半岛区内海产养殖地下咸水的分布特征、富水地段资源量及开发利用现状,并针对开发利用中引发的地质环境问题提出了相应的保护建议,对于指导该区海产养殖地下咸水资源科学合理开发利用具有重要的意义。     

一种改进的土壤水分微波遥感反演模型

利用微波遥感数据反演地表土壤水分有着较好的物理基础,可实现大范围土壤水分状况的遥感监测。本文基于被动微波传感器AMSR-E的X波段数据,将土壤水分值分解成基准值和日变化量两个部分,并分别建立反演模型,同时引入降雨修正因子来进一步提高土壤水分的估算精度;利用IDL语言实现了我们所研发的模型,并集成为新疆土壤水分遥感反演系统模块之一;利用Watch Dog2400与传统铝盒采样获取的新疆地面土壤水分数据,提取适合的模型经验参数,并对模型结果进行精度评价。结果表明,经改进的模型反演得到的新疆土壤水分结果比美国冰雪数据中心的土壤水分产品在精度上有显著提高:均方根误差由8.4%降低为4.25%;所研发的软件模块可为相关应用部门提供快速的大范围土壤水分监测产品。     

中国西北部造山带中几个古生代俯冲增生楔的识别与确认

中国西北部涉及古亚洲和特提斯两大构造域,造山带结构复杂,成矿地质条件优越。为推进地质找矿突破行动计划,中国地质调查局在各成矿(造山)带部署了一批1∶5万、1∶25万区域地质调查与基础地质综合研究项目,取得了一批新发现、新进展,有效提升了对各成矿带成矿地质条件的认知程度,尤其是在阿尔泰南缘、南天山、南昆仑等地识别并确认出规模可观的、成矿作用优越的板块俯冲增生楔,是造山带中的增生造山亚带,是寻找斑岩型铜、构造蚀变岩型金及多金属矿的最有利区带。“增生造山带”的构造、岩浆活动及空间展布等的确认,为地质找矿突破提供了强有力的技术支撑。     

滇西弥渡盆地中晚更新世断陷特征及环境演化

为了解滇西弥渡盆地中晚更新世以来的断陷特征及环境演化,开展了弥渡盆地各级阶地沉积物的热释光测年、沉积相和孢粉的研究工作.通过野外调查发现弥渡盆地西侧至少发育5级阶地,对应于5次间歇断陷阶段,重点调查弥渡盆地西侧的奇家营I级阶地、龙华寺Ⅲ级阶地、平安庄Ⅳ级阶地、大树坪V级阶地.I级、Ⅲ级、Ⅳ级和V级阶地热释光测年值分别为200.48±22.05ka,239.06±26.30ka,320.85±35.29ka和332.07±36.59ka.年代学分析结果表明:滇西弥渡盆地的地貌格局形成约33万年来的间歇式断陷运动,而且表现出早期断陷速率快,晚期断陷速率减缓的趋势.从沉积特征分析:早期沉积特征中出现半深湖沉积物,说明湖盆断陷速率相对较快,反映出该段时期程海断裂带南段的活动性相对较强;晚期主要以湖泊近岸、浅湖为主,说明湖盆断陷速率相对较慢,反映出该段时期程海断裂带南段的活动性相对较弱.通过阶地堆积物沉积相和孢粉分析研究显示,更新世中晚期弥渡盆地沉积环境主要为山间盆地河湖环境,气候由凉爽湿润→温暖湿润→凉爽湿润转变的特点.弥渡盆地西缘、北缘发育较多洪积扇,洪积扇以线性排列,东缘洪积扇较少,多为单个扇体,说明盆地西、北侧断陷速率相对较快.盆地西侧的洪积扇,由北向南规模逐渐变小,堆积物由粗变细,扇面坡度由大变小,说明北段断陷运动较强.这一现象说明盆地近代具有向北掀斜的趋势.     

华北克拉通南缘后大陆碰撞背景下的岩石圈演化及金、钼成矿规律探讨

通过对华北克拉通南缘大量的岩浆岩和矿床研究表明,矿床的形成与燕山期岩浆岩具有非常密切的关系,豫西矿集区是华北克拉通南缘岩石圈剧烈演化的结果。岩石圈的这种剧烈演化是在两件重大地质事件的共同作用下进行的:一方面,扬子板块与华北板块在印支期拼合,并发生了广泛的陆-陆碰撞造山活动,此后,克拉通边缘转入了后造山演化阶段;另一方面,燕山晚期的J-K之交,太平洋板块向欧亚板块俯冲,导致地幔大规模活动。中国东部大规模的地壳减薄和壳幔作用,使本来就处于造山后演化阶段的华北陆块南缘发生了广泛的岩浆活动。正因为这两大地质作用叠加效应,区域岩浆演化剧烈而复杂,大批重融花岗岩的地球化学特征往往既显示造山带的特点,又具有大规模壳幔作用的特征。这两大地质作用为豫西矿集区的形成提供了良好的成矿地质背景,大量的研究表明,各种矿床与燕山期岩浆岩在形成时间上高度吻合,空间上密切相关,同位素指标极为相近,显示它们在成因上的密切关系。岩浆一方面作为深部赋矿流体的上升通道,另一方面提供持续的高温环境,保证了元素迁移和成矿作用的进行。因此,华北克拉通南缘后大陆碰撞背景下的壳幔演化、大规模岩浆活动是豫西矿集区形成的决定性因素。