Ongoing research on seismic safety assessment

Research on seismic safety assessment has been the centre of great interest among the scientific community in recent years. Although the devastating impact of earthquakes on current society should be incentive enough to increase research, the development of more realistic mechanical behaviour models and the continuous enhancement of computation capabilities are paramount factors contributing a great deal to the increase of such interest. In this context, three research areas can be identified as currently leading to important developments: code related research, especially in Europe where new design codes are in the implementation process; risk analysis, namely concerning the definition of methodologies for safety assessment that involve the evaluation of the failure probability and could be included in future generations of codes; and experimental characterization of constitutive laws which provides support for the development and calibration of accurate and realistic numerical models for seismic analysis and for the adequate characterization of limit state capacities. The paper will present some of the current scientific research trends on these three seismic safety assessment related topics. Studies addressing the seismic safety assessment of structures, either probabilistically or based on code provisions, and that consider realistic nonlinear mechanical behaviour models will be focussed. Reference will also be made to experimental research on the seismic behaviour of structural elements, emphasizing its crucial role to support the development of numerical models simulating the effects of different seismic strengthening techniques. Finally, given the development of studies leading to new trends and perspectives for performance based earthquake engineering, a possible scenario for seismic design in the future is presented, emphasizing the key issues for its implementation.     

The kriging update equations and their application to the selection of neighboring data

A key problem in the application of kriging is the definition of a local neighborhood in which to search for the most relevant data. A usual practice consists in selecting data close to the location targeted for prediction and, at the same time, distributed as uniformly as possible around this location, in order to discard data conveying redundant information. This approach may however not be optimal, insofar as it does not account for the data spatial correlation. To improve the kriging neighborhood definition, we first examine the effect of including one or more data and present equations in order to quickly update the kriging weights and kriging variances. These equations are then applied to design a stepwise selection algorithm that progressively incorporates the most relevant data, i.e., the data that make the kriging variance decrease more. The proposed algorithm is illustrated on a soil contamination dataset.     

A new method for the interpretation of pumping tests in leaky aquifers

A novel methodology for the interpretation of pumping tests in leaky aquifer systems, referred to as the double inflection point (DIP) method, is presented. The method is based on the analysis of the first and second derivatives of the drawdown with respect to log time for the estimation of the flow parameters. Like commonly used analysis procedures, such as the type-curve approach developed by Walton (1962) and the inflection point method developed by Hantush (1956), the mathematical development of the DIP method is based on the assumption of homogeneity of the leaky aquifer layers. However, contrary to the two methods developed by Hantush and Walton, the new method does not need any fitting process. In homogeneous media, the two classic methods and the one proposed here provide exact results for transmissivity, storativity, and leakage factor when aquifer storage is neglected and the recharging aquifer is unperturbed. The real advantage of the DIP method comes when applying all methods independently to a test in a heterogeneous aquifer, where each method yields parameter values that are weighted differently, and thus each method provides different information about the heterogeneity distribution. Therefore, the methods are complementary and not competitive. In particular, the combination of the DIP method and Hantush method is shown to lead to the identification of contrasts between the local transmissivity in the vicinity of the well and the equivalent transmissivity of the perturbed aquifer volume.     

Impact of winter dense water formation on shelf sediment erosion (evidence from the Gulf of Lions,NW Mediterranean)

A 1-year survey of sediment dynamics on the Têt inner-shelf in the south-western part of the Gulf of Lions was conducted as part of the EUROSTRATAFORM program (European Margin Strata Formation) from October 2004 to November 2005. Several bottom instruments (ADCP, wave gauge and altimeters) were deployed at 28 m water depth on the Têt prodelta to measure forcing responsible for sediment erosion and transport on the inner-shelf.     

Geochemical Characteristics of Early Permian Pyroclastic Rocks in the Jimunai Basin,West Junggar,Xinjiang(NW China): Implications for Provenance and Tectonic Setting

During the Late Paleozoic, West Junggar(Xinjiang, NW China) experienced a shift in tectonic setting from compression to extension. Ha'erjiao is an important area for investigating collisional structures, post–collisional structures, and magmatic activities. Based on the petrological and geochemical characteristics of pyroclastic and other volcanic rocks in the Permian Kalagang Formation from the borehole ZKH1205 in the Jimunai Basin, the main types of source rock for the pyroclastic rocks deposited in the basin are identified and their implications for the Early Permian tectonic setting examined. The abundance of basalt and andesite lithic fragments in the pyroclastic rocks, together with the REE characteristics and the contents of transition and high field strength elements show that the source rocks were chiefly intermediate–basic volcanic rocks. High ICV values, low CIA values, low Rb/Sr ratios, low Th/U ratios and the mineralogical features suggest weak chemical weathering of the source rocks; the geochemical patterns of the pyroclastic rocks might not only have been impacted by crustal contamination but also might be related to the nature of the magma from the source area. The geochemical properties of the pyroclastic rocks distinguish them from arc-related ones, and such samples plot in the within-plate basalt(WPB) field in some diagrams. This is consistent with the formation background of the Early Permian volcanic rocks in this region.     

Variations of levels and composition of PM10 and PM2.5 at an insular site in the Western Mediterranean

The insular suburban site of Castillo de Bellver was selected for the study of the variability of PM levels and composition in the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB).Mean annual (in 2004) PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 levels at this site were 29 and 20 µg/m³, respectively. These levels may be regarded as relatively low when compared with other suburban insular locations in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin (EMB), but they are higher than those recorded at most of the European suburban sites, especially in Northern and Western Europe. Seasonal variability of PM levels at this site is governed by meteorology rather than local emissions, whereas the daily cycles are clearly defined by the anthropogenic emissions, mainly coming from the urban area of Palma de Mallorca and the harbour area of the same city.Concerning the aerosol composition at this site, the main PM constituent is the mineral matter (29% in PM₁₀ and 16 % in PM_2.5), more than 50% (in PM₁₀) being attributable to African dust. The amount of secondary inorganic aerosols is also very high (27% in PM₁₀ and 34% in PM_2.5), with the predominance of fine ammonium sulphate, and in a less proportion fine ammonium nitrate (in winter) and coarse Ca and Na nitrate (with higher importance in summer). The carbonaceous particles, dominantly fine, account for 17% of PM₁₀ and 25% of PM_2.5. The elemental carbon/organic carbon (EC/OC) ratio reached a mean value of 0.17, similar to those observed at regional background sites in the WMB coast of Spain. The sea spray aerosols (mainly coarse) represented around 10% of PM₁₀, and only 4% in PM_2.5. Finally, the unaccounted fraction increased from 15% to 20% in PM_2.5, being mostly attributed to water.The concentrations of trace elements in PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were usually in the range to those observed in regional background sites in the Iberian Peninsula, with the exception of the typical tracers of road traffic such as Cu, Sb, Zn, Sn and Ba, which presented concentrations in the range of urban sites of Iberia. Other elements such as Cr, Zr, Hf and Co have been identified as the main tracers of the harbour contributions.     

Present and future climates of the Greenland ice sheet according to the IPCC AR4 models

The atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970?C1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/NCAR). This comparison indicates that the representation quality of surface parameters such as temperature and precipitation are highly correlated to the atmospheric circulation (500?hPa geopotential height) and its interannual variability (North Atlantic oscillation). The outputs of the three most suitable AOGCMs for present-day climate simulation are then used to assess the changes estimated by three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SRES) over the GrIS for the 2070?C2099 period. Future atmospheric circulation changes are projected to dampen the zonal flow, enhance the meridional fluxes and therefore provide additional heat and moisture to the GrIS, increasing temperature over the whole ice sheet and precipitation over its northeastern area. We also show that the GrIS surface mass balance anomalies from the SRES A1B scenario amount to ?300?km³/year with respect to the 1970?C1999 period, leading to a global sea-level rise of 5?cm by the end of the 21st century. This work can help to select the boundaries conditions for AOGCMs-based downscaled future projections.     

Current and future atmospheric circulation at 500 hPa over Greenland simulated by the CMIP3 and CMIP5 global models

The Greenland ice sheet is projected to be strongly affected by global warming. These projections are either issued from downscaling methods (such as Regional Climate Models) or they come directly from General Circulation Models (GCMs). In this context, it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the daily atmospheric circulation simulated by the GCMs, since it is used as forcing for downscaling methods. Thus, we use an automatic circulation type classification based on two indices (Euclidean distance and Spearman rank correlation using the daily 500 hPa geopotential height) to evaluate the ability of the GCMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 databases to simulate the main circulation types over Greenland during summer. For each circulation type, the GCMs are compared to three reanalysis datasets on the basis of their frequency and persistence differences. For the current climate (1961–1990), we show that most of the GCMs do not reproduce the expected frequency and the persistence of the circulation types and that they simulate poorly the observed daily variability of the general circulation. Only a few GCMs can be used as reliable forcings for downscaling methods over Greenland. Finally, when applying the same approach to the future projections of the GCMs, no significant change in the atmospheric circulation over Greenland is detected, besides a generalised increase of the geopotential height due to a uniform warming of the atmosphere.