应用泉水均衡法分析四川省兴文县新坝水库岩溶渗漏问题

岩溶地区水库渗漏是碳酸盐岩地区兴建水利枢纽的主要工程地质问题之一,尤其是在可溶岩广布、岩溶发育强烈、地形复杂地区。拟建兴文县新坝水库地处岩溶地区,存在岩溶渗漏的可能性。通过对该水库库区地质概况、岩溶水系统进行分析研究,论证了水库潜在的三条岩溶渗漏途径均不会发生渗漏;并利用库区降雨量与泉流量进行水均衡计算,计算结果进一步论证了该水库不存在岩溶渗漏问题。     

利用静止卫星云图进行二维傅里叶相位导风试验

根据二维傅里叶相位分析原理,对1 min间隔的IR云图进行由云推导风的反演。利用模块高度频数直方图把云分为高、中、低云。对连续三幅IR云图进行二维傅里叶相位导风计算,得到两个反演风场,对两个风场相同位置上的风矢进行逐点比较,剔除风向或风速差别较大的风矢,再对处理后的风场进行高度调整法的质量控制,把不合理的风矢剔除或调整到合理的高度层,得到连续性较好的风场。     

藉物理耗散技术改进强降水数值模拟的初步研究

利用PSU/NCAR非静力中尺度模式MM5V3,对影响我国北方一次非汛期突发性强降水过程实例,进行了三重嵌套模式区域采用若干不同降水方案(特别是采用显式微物理方案与积云对流参数化方案若干组合)的对比试验,在揭示物理耗散技术正是通过将模式水平扩散方案纠正到符合热力学第二定律的约束而使该中尺度模式的模拟精度和模拟质量获得明显提高的物理实质的同时,从一个侧面证实了数值模式引入第二定律对提高数值天气预报准确率的重要性。     

从流体包裹体特征探讨泥堡金矿成因

泥堡金矿床据脉石矿物和萤石的包裹体研究,包裹少而小,类型较为简单。综合包裹体各项参数和气液成分分析认为,成矿流体属NaCl-H_2O体系的富K~ 的、弱酸性溶液,具有较高密度、较低盐度和中-低温度的特点。结合硫和氢氧同位素测定结果,成矿流体是燕山运动阶段的地表水沿断裂深循环,特别是在富K、富Au的凝灰岩中往复循环作用形成的。当各种条件具备时即可卸载成矿,成矿的最佳位置就是沿P_(2-3)β_1与P_2m~(dc)之间沉积间断面发生的层间滑动构造带。     

Effects of soil conservation practices on soil erosion and the size selectivity of eroded sediment on cultivated slopes

Soil conservation practices can greatly affect the soil erosion process, but limited information is available about its influence on the particle size distribution(PSD) of eroded sediment, especially under natural rainfall. In this study, the runoff, sediment yields, and effective/ultimate PSD were measured under two conventional tillage practices, downhill ridge tillage(DT) and plat tillage(PT) and three soil conservation practices, contour ridge tillage(CT), mulching with downhill ridge tillage(MDT), and mulching with contour ridge tillage(MCT) during 21 natural rainfall events in the lower Jinsha River. The results showed that(1) soil conservation practices had a significant effect on soil erosion. The conventional tillage of DT caused highest runoff depth(0.58 to 29.13 mm) and sediment yield(0.01 to 3.19 t hm-2). Compared with DT, the annual runoff depths and sediment yields of CT, MDT and MCT decreased by 12.24%-49.75% and 40.79%-88.30%, respectively.(2) Soil conservation practices can reduce the decomposition of aggregates in sediments. The ratios of effective and ultimate particle size(E/U) of siltand sand-sized particles of DT and PT plots were close to 1, indicating that they were transported as primary particles, however, values lower/greater than 1 subject to CT, MDT and MCT plots indicated they were transported as aggregates. The ratios of E/U of claysized particles were all less than 1 independently of tillage practices.(3) The sediments of soil conservation practices were more selective than those of conventional tillage practices. For CT, MDT and MCT plots, the average enrichment ratios(ERs) of clay, silt and sand were 1.99, 1.93 and 0.42, respectively, with enrichment of clay and silt and depletion of sand in sediments. However, the compositions of the eroded sediments of DT and PT plots were similar to that of the original soil. These findings support the use of both effective and ultimate particle size distributions for studying the size selectivity of eroded sediment, and provide a scientific basis for revealing the erosion mechanism in the purple soil area of China.     

江苏省夏季最高温度定量预报方法

以江苏省徐州、南京、射阳3个探空站2002～2006年7～8月逐日观测资料为基础,选取了影响最高温度变化的因子,利用逐步回归方法建立了以徐州、南京、射阳3地为中心的区域预报模型,并对模型的回归效果和预报情况进行分析.剖析了其用于实际预报的合理性和可信度,同时与欧洲中期天气预报中心动力数值预报结果相结合,利用高斯权重插值方法将预报场的格点资料捕值到江苏各站点,通过PP法,完成了江苏省最高温度的定量预报.预报当天最高温度误差在1℃以下的概率为5O%左右,2℃以下概率在8O%左右,该方法可用于最高温度预报.     

Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Urbanization in China Using DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Data from 1992–2013

Understanding the dynamics of urbanization is essential to the sustainable development of cities. Meanwhile the analysis of urban development can also provide scientifically and effective information for decision-making. With the long-term Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System(DMSP/OLS) nighttime light images, a pixel level assessment of urbanization of China from 1992 to 2013 was conducted in this study, and the spatio-temporal dynamics and future trends of urban development were fully detected. The results showed that the urbanization and urban dynamics of China experienced drastic fluctuations from 1992 to 2013, especially for those in the coastal and metropolitan areas. From a regional perspective, it was found that the urban dynamics and increasing trends in North Coast China, East Coast China and South Coast China were much more stable and significant than that in other regions. Moreover, with the sustainability estimating of nighttime light dynamics, the regional agglomeration trends of urban regions were also detected. The light intensity in nearly 50% of lighted pixels may continuously decrease in the future, indicating a severe situation of urbanization within these regions. In this study, The results revealed in this study can provided a new insight in long time urbanization detecting and is thus beneficial to the better understanding of trends and dynamics of urban development.     

全球增暖1.5/2℃下中国区域极端降水的风险变化及其影响因子

利用24个CMIP6全球气候模式的逐日降水模拟资料,基于广义极值分布(GEV)模型,研究了全球增暖1.5/2℃下我国20、50和100 a重现期极端降水的未来风险变化。可以发现,相对于历史时期(1995—2014年),全球升温1.5和2℃下极端降水发生概率风险空间分布相近,总体上呈现增加趋势,但额外增暖0.5℃将导致更高的风险。如50 a重现期极端降水,在增暖1.5/2℃下其重现期将分别变为17/14 a,极端降水将变得更加频繁。不同区域对气候变暖的响应存在区域差异,其中中国西部长江黄河中上游和青藏高原地区、中国东部长江黄河中下游及其以南地区,极端降水发生概率比达到3以上,局部更是达到5以上,为我国极端降水气候变化响应高敏感区域。进一步,基于概率分布函数从理论角度探讨了位置和尺度参数对发生概率风险的影响与贡献度量,并用于探讨极端降水气候平均态和变率变化对极端降水发生风险的影响,结果显示：位置和尺度参数的增量变化、风险变化率存在着显著的东西部差异,从而导致极端降水发生风险的影响因素存在差异。如中国西部尽管极端降水气候平均态和变率变化幅度不大,但因风险变化率较高,从而导致该区域的发生风险大...     

1月北大西洋东部-乌拉尔山阻塞高压频次年际尺度偶极子模态特征

基于观测和再分析资料,本文研究了近几十年来1月北大西洋东部-乌拉尔山阻塞高压频次年际变异主导模态特征及与其相联的大气背景场。结果表明,1980—2019年冬季(12月—次年2月)该地区阻塞高压频次年际变异的主导模态存在明显月际差异:12月表现为北大西洋东部-欧洲西部地区阻塞高压频次的显著同位相变化,1月为北大西洋东部-欧洲西部与乌拉尔山地区阻塞高压频次的具有显著的反位相变化即偶极子模态,2月则为北大西洋东部-乌拉尔山阻塞高压频次的显著同位相变化。进一步研究表明:1月北大西洋东部-乌拉尔山阻塞高压频次偶极子模态与同期局地纬向西风、纬向风垂直切变、经向位涡梯度等大气背景场异常偶极型变化相联系。当乌拉尔山地区关键大气背景场为负异常,而北大西洋东部-欧洲西部为正异常时,两个地区阻塞高压频次分别增加和减少,呈现偶极子模态;反之亦然。阻塞高压频次偶极子模态及相关的背景环流异常可通过调节水平温度平流、垂直运动和水汽输送等来影响1月欧亚北部气温和降水,以及它们的极端事件频次。当阻塞高压频次偶极子模态处于正位相时,乌拉尔山北部(南部)和欧洲南部增温(降温),极端暖、冷事件频次分别增加(减少)和减少(增加...     

安徽省酷热天气分析及预报指标

基于安徽省1961-2017年逐日地面最高气温资料,采用Mann-Kendall法对安徽省高温天气事件进行突变分析,发现安徽省2000年后高温事件明显增加。为分析安徽省酷热天气特征和产生机理,文中挑选了35~37℃高温天气个例对比分析。结果发现:1)500 hPa西太平洋副高位置和850 hPa气温对酷热天气预报的指示性最好。2)受西太平洋副热带高压不同位置控制,安徽省增温机制不同:当为高压中心控制时,太阳辐射在增温过程中起决定性作用,安徽省易出现酷热天气;当高压中心位于海上,脊线位于安徽省附近时,安徽省高温强度较弱。通过酷热天气个例研究和合成平均分析,文中总结了安徽省酷热天气预报指标。