长三角盛夏—初秋强降水的延伸期过程预报探析

针对长三角汛期强降水过程,根据不同降水类型的特性,提出分时段建立低频模型并给出建模流程。综合分析长三角汛期强降水期的低频特性,将低频气旋及反气旋区分划分7个关键区。重点研究盛夏—初秋时段的强降水特征,在总结强降水期低频特征的基础上,借助EOF分解建立延伸期大—暴雨的预报模型:1区或2区有低频气旋维持并发展;6区、7区或5区存在低频反气旋。并且在7个关键区中1、2区的低频气旋及5、6、7区的低频反气旋为主要低频系统,起决定作用,而3区的低频系统为次要低频系统,起辅助作用。利用该模型提前30 d预报出2012年汛期最强降水过程,并分析本次过程的低频系统演变,给出动态演变模型。     

A Dipole Pattern of Summer Precipitation over Mid-high Latitude Asia and Related Snow Cover Anomalies in the Preceding Spring

A dipole pattern of summer precipitation over the mid-high latitudes of Asia, which is characterized by opposing summer precipitation variations between the Mongolian and Northeast China （MNC） region and the West Siberian Plain （WSP）, is found to be clear and stable on both interdecadal and interannual scales during 1981- 2011. Spring snow cover anomalies over a small region within the WSP and the Heilongjiang River （HR） region are closely related to the variation of this dipole mode during the subsequent summer, and they can therefore be considered as forecasting factors. Our statistical results imply a potential process explaining the relationship between the spring snow anomalies and the summer rainfall dipole. Corresponding to the snow anomalies, Rossby waves propagate along a path from the WSP region, via the Mongolian Plateau, to the Stanovoy Range during summer. At the same time, Rossby-wave energy divergences and convergences along this path maintain and reinforce an anomalous cyclone and anticyclone pairing over the Asian continent, which is significantly linked to opposite summer precipitation anomalies between the MNC and WSP regions. Numerical experiments are need- ed to further confirm the above conjecture and demonstrate the detailed physical mechanisms linking the spring snow cover anomalies and summer precipitation dipole.     

公交车辆全线运行状态的监督站牌及查询系统

针对出行者对公交车辆运行信息的需求,基于GPS技术设计了一个动态显示公交车辆位置信息的监督站牌系统,并提供公交位置信息的网络查询服务,方便出行者了解公交车辆的实时运营信息,以及对公交车辆的实时监督.系统以LabVIEW为软件开发平台对数据进行分析与处理,利用ASP.NET进行Web网页开发并与数据库交互,实现公交系统的智能运营和智能服务.通过实际验证,该方案具有可行性、实用性.     

An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales.     

新疆哈密东盐池附近变质基底特征及控矿探讨

新疆哈密东盐池附近变质基底属于塔里木板块北缘北山古生代裂谷带西段一部分,而板块北缘的北山地区古生代进入了陆块裂解、陆内裂谷发展演化时期。笔者对东盐池附近的变质岩进行了研究,将该区域变质作用分为区域变质、动力变质及接触变质等3个类型;将区内变质相分为低角闪岩相、高绿片岩相、低绿片岩相及葡萄石—绿纤石相等4个变质相带相系。研究了地质事件与变质变形的演化趋势,即变质作用从区域中高温变质、区域低温动力变质到区域埋深变质,变质作用的温度和压力随时代更新逐次降低。探讨了变质作用与矿产的关系,即变质作用控制变质矿产的分布。各种变质作用所形成的热液与其他热液一起促使成矿物质的活化迁移至有利部位成矿,形成了黑色岩系中的磷矿、石墨矿和钒矿等。     

川西北中二叠统茅口组储层特征及成因

对四川盆地西北部钻井岩心、露头剖面样品的宏观及微观岩石学特征研究认为,川西北茅口组储层类型主要为生屑灰岩,储集空间主要为生物格架孔、粒间溶孔、粒内溶孔、溶蚀孔洞及裂缝。茅口组储层的发育主要受到沉积微相、古岩溶作用及构造作用等因素控制。其中沉积微相是储层形成的物质基础,古岩溶作用是储层形成的关键因素,而构造裂缝是储层改善及连通的重要因素。     

巴布亚新几内亚奥克泰迪铜金矿床成矿特征和控制因素

巴布亚新几内亚西部Fubilan山奥克泰迪矿床是一个世界级铜金矿床,在大地构造上位于新几内亚造山带的巴布亚褶皱带。该矿床的铜金矿化赋存于Fubilan二长斑岩及其周边的磁铁矿夕卡岩和硫化物夕卡岩中。矿石类型以原生硫化物矿石为主,金属矿物包括磁铁矿、黄铁矿、磁黄铁矿、白铁矿、黄铜矿、斑铜矿等。蚀变类型包括夕卡岩化、钾化、泥化和青盘岩化。矿床氧化次生富集带发育,表生矿石矿物为蓝辉铜矿、辉铜矿、自然铜、铜蓝和银金矿。成矿作用主要受区域构造、侵入杂岩体、Darai组灰岩地层、断裂等因素的控制。根据矿床的主岩、矿石特征、蚀变特征和控矿因素,认为该矿床成因类型属于较为典型的夕卡岩—斑岩型矿床。     

巴布亚新几内亚奥克泰迪铜金矿床成矿特征和控制因素

巴布亚新几内亚西部Fubilan山奥克泰迪矿床是一个世界级铜金矿床,在大地构造上位于新几内亚造山带的巴布亚褶皱带。该矿床的铜金矿化赋存于Fubilan二长斑岩及其周边的磁铁矿夕卡岩和硫化物夕卡岩中。矿石类型以原生硫化物矿石为主,金属矿物包括磁铁矿、黄铁矿、磁黄铁矿、白铁矿、黄铜矿、斑铜矿等。蚀变类型包括夕卡岩化、钾化、泥化和青盘岩化。矿床氧化次生富集带发育,表生矿石矿物为蓝辉铜矿、辉铜矿、自然铜、铜蓝和银金矿。成矿作用主要受区域构造、侵入杂岩体、Darai组灰岩地层、断裂等因素的控制。根据矿床的主岩、矿石特征、蚀变特征和控矿因素,认为该矿床成因类型属于较为典型的夕卡岩一斑岩型矿床。     

黄土高原渭河宝鸡段北岸大型深层滑坡动力学机制研究

为研究渭河盆地黄土塬边大型深层滑坡运动机制,通过对渭河宝鸡段北岸斜坡构造地貌过程解析、滑体地质剖面平衡计算与运动过程的动态数值模拟,结合黏土岩滑动带发育的宏观力学背景、物理结构变化特征与剪切蠕变、滑动力学行为特征研究,确定了渭河北岸大型深层滑坡的几何学、运动学特征,初步揭示了黏土岩质滑带塑性流动挤出的控滑机制。研究表明:①大型深层滑坡的运动变形由后缘向坡脚传递,后缘下降、前缘隆起,整体变形由底部泥岩控制,具有一定的水平位移,是旋转-平移复活式滑坡;②黏土岩滑动带结构损伤形成蠕变变形带,滑动过程中,塑性变形区在滑体下方呈倾斜三角形状,产生塑性流动变形,逆冲向上运动中形成翻卷结构,滑体前缘以流动状态隆起挤出;③黏土岩的塑性流动变形是黏土矿物含量增加、活性增强的结果,滑带土内的粘粒含量(2μm)由初始的17.94%增加到50.22%,蒙脱石的绝对含量从初始的13.19%增加至26.38%,而其比表面积平均由124.55增加至215.08,从而降低滑动带的强度、恶化水理性质,引起滑体剧烈变形,而滑体内赋存的高孔隙水压力可推动滑体滑动。     

江苏淤泥质潮滩剖面演变现场观测

为探究江苏中部沿海双凸型剖面演变特性,在江苏盐城川东港南侧潮间带布设了10个水准观测站,2012年9月至2013年11月对该潮滩剖面演变过程开展了现场观测.结果表明:该潮滩剖面呈现出双凸型特征,平均高、低潮位线附近的滩涂形成淤积率较高的地形凸点;潮间上带受潮流影响小,滩面高程相对稳定;平均高、低潮位之间的区域滩面高程季节性变化明显,总体呈现冲刷状态;潮间下带冲刷显著,滩面坡度增大.全剖面自岸向海呈现"稳定—淤积—稳定—淤积—冲刷"的双凸型剖面特征.