The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The mean value concept in mono-linear regression of multi-variables and its application to trace studies in geosciences

The "mean value concept" in a mono-linear regression of multi-variables is clarified.Its applications to reconstruction of the past 90-year salinity of the sea surface water in Xisha Islands and to tracing the past 80 ka paleo-geomagnetic events from the Luochuan loess 10Be record are introduced in detail,which show the significance and the potential of the "mean value concept" in geoscience research.     

A 3-D finite volume model for sediment transport in coastal waters

Ocean Dynamics - A 3-D model has been developed to simulate sediment transport and bed change induced by currents and waves in coastal waters. The currents are calculated with the 3-D...     

广东省某水电站上坝公路、进厂房公路地质灾害影响评估

通过对广东省某水电站公路两侧存在的地质灾害-滑坡进行稳定性分析,并结合区域地质情况对该电站上坝公路、进厂房公路两侧存在的地质灾害现状进行了评估;最后,对评估区进行了分区,同时针对不同分区提出不同的治理方案.     

闽北早古生代岛弧火山岩的岩石地球化学特征

作者系统地研究了福建政和早古生代岛弧火山岩的岩石地球化学特征。研究表明该火山岩是以岛弧拉斑玄武岩-钙碱性火山岩组合为特征的岛弧火山岩系列，并具有从拉斑系列向钙碱性系列演化的特征；该火山岩源于亏损地幔，并且受到一定的陆壳物质混染，基性的拉斑玄武质系列受到陆壳物质混染较少，而中性钙碱性系列则受到较大程度混染。     

四川盆地干旱灾害统计特征

利用四川盆地1980—2009年17市103个县(市)实测逐日降水资料,按照四川省气象局制定的四川盆地的干旱地方标准DB51/T581—2007,对四川盆地近30年干旱灾害进行统计分析。结果表明:四川盆地夏旱出现的频率最高,夏旱的高发区集中在盆地西北部的成都、德阳和绵阳,伏旱的发生频率最低,强度最强。春、夏、伏旱的空间分布高发区依次从盆地西北部向东南转移。干旱发生的频率整体呈增长趋势,且严重干旱发生频次增长明显,与20世纪80年代相比90年代增幅达到110.3%,21世纪00年代在90年代的基础上又递增20.0%,21世纪00年代发生的严重干旱频次为80年代的2.5倍。     

Spatio-temporal-spectral observation model for urban remote sensing

Taking cities as objects being observed, urban remote sensing is an important branch of remote sensing. Given the complexity of the urban scenes, urban remote s...     

2010年4月桂东北一次暖区暴雨天气分析

对2010年4月桂东北一次暖区暴雨天气分析,分析,发现本次过程是由高原南侧的低值系统东移,与副高西北侧西南急流之间形成强烈辐合上升运动造成的;中高纬度稳定的纬向环流和稳定少动的副高为过程提供了很好的环境;高原南侧的低值系统可能与高原的地形摩擦作用有关。     

Modelling the time‐dependent behaviour of granular material with hypoplasticity

This paper presents a constitutive model for time‐dependent behaviour of granular material. The model consists of 2 parts representing the inviscid and viscous behaviour of granular materials. The inviscid part is a rate‐independent hypoplastic constitutive model. The viscous part is represented by a rheological model, which contains a high‐order term denoting the strain acceleration. The proposed model is validated by simulating some element tests on granular soils. Our model is able to model not only the non‐isotach behaviour but also the 3 creep stages, namely, primary, secondary, and tertiary creep, in a unified way.